Tindor Sikunyongana is trying to run a welding business that now has to buy diesel generators with expensive fuel that he can’t afford.
Like everyone in Zambia, Sikunyongana faces a daily struggle to find and pay for electricity during a climate-induced energy crisis which robbed the southern African country of almost all its power.
“Only God knows when this crisis will end,” Sikunyongana said. His generator ran out of diesel and stopped as he spoke. “You see what I mean?” said.
Themba Hadebe / AP
What causes power outages in Zambia?
In memory the worst power outage in Zambia has been caused by heavy drought in the area that has left the critical Kariba dam, the miserable source of Sikunyongana, with insufficient water to run its hydroelectric turbine. Kariba is the world’s largest man-made lake by volume and is located 200 kilometers (125 miles) south of Lusaka on the border between Zambia and Zimbabwe.
The large dam wall was built in the 1950s and more than 80 workers died during construction. It is intended to revolutionize the country’s energy supply by capturing the waters of the Zambezi River, turning the valley into a large lake and providing a renewable supply of hydroelectric power.
It is no longer the case because of the naturally occurring drought months El Nino weather pattern and exacerbated by warm temperatures have put the Zambian hydroelectric station on the brink of completely shutting down for the first time.
Water levels are so low that only one of the six turbines on the Zambian side of the dam is operational, reducing production to less than 10% of normal output. Zambia relies on Kariba for more than 80% of its national electricity supply, and as a result Zambians only have power for a few hours a day at the best of times. Often, areas are without electricity for days.
Edla Musonda was so angry that he took his entire desktop computer – hard drive, monitor, everything – to a local cafe to work on it.
Musonda and others sneak into Cafe Mercato in the Zambian capital, Lusaka, not for the sandwiches or the atmosphere but because it has a diesel generator. Tables are cluttered with wires and cables as people plug in their cell phones, laptops and in Musonda’s case, the front office. This is the only way his small travel business will survive.
Less than half of Zambia’s 20 million people had access to electricity before the Kariba crisis. Millions more have now been forced to adjust as mothers find different ways to cook for their families and their children do the work by candlelight. The most devastating impact is during the day when small businesses, the backbone of the country, struggle to operate.
“This will also increase the level of poverty in the country,” said economist Trevor Hambai, who fears Zambia’s economy will shrink significantly if the electricity crisis drags on. This is a warning to the Zambian government and the continent at large about the dangers of developing too much dependence on one energy source that is highly dependent on the climate.
Climate change and extreme weather
The power crisis is a bigger blow to the economy and the fight against poverty than the lockdown COVID 19 pandemic, said Zambia Manufacturers Association president Ashu Sagar.
Africa contributes the least to global warming but is the continent most vulnerable to extreme weather events and climate change because poor countries cannot afford the high financial costs of adaptation. This year’s drought in southern Africa is the worst in decades and has dried up and left millions hungry, prompting Zambia and others to declare a national disaster and appeal for aid.
Hydroelectric power accounts for 17% of Africa’s energy generation, but that figure is expected to rise to 23% by 2040, according to the International Energy Agency. Zambia is not the only country with hydroelectric power that makes up more than 80% of the energy mix in Mozambique, Malawi, Uganda, Ethiopia and Congo, although experts warn it will become unreliable.
“Extreme weather patterns, including prolonged droughts, make it clear that overreliance on hydro is no longer sustainable,” said Carlos Lopes, a professor at the Mandela School of Public Governance at the University of Cape Town in South Africa.
The Zambian government has encouraged people and businesses to use solar power. But many Zambians cannot afford the technology, while the government itself has turned to the more familiar but destructive diesel generators to power hospitals and other buildings. It has also been said that it will increase electricity from coal-fired stations out of necessity. While neighboring Zimbabwe has also lost many power plants from Kariba and blackouts are also frequent, it gets more of its power from coal plants.
Themba Hadebe / AP
Changes to the Kariba dam
At Kariba, the 128-meter (420-foot) high dam wall is almost entirely visible. A dry, reddish brown stain near the top is a sign that the water has reached better than it did ten years ago.
Leonard Siamubotu, who has been taking tourists on a boat cruise on the picturesque lake for more than 20 years, has seen a change. When the water level drops, it exposes the dead trees, which have been submerged for years after the wall was built. “I saw this tree for the first time,” said one of them who appeared in the middle of the lake.
The lake’s water level naturally rises and falls with the seasons, but should generally rise by about six meters after rain. Movements of less than 30 centimeters after the last rainy season have hardly occurred, authorities said. He hopes this year’s rains, which should start in November, will be good. But he estimated that it would still take three years for Kariba to fully recover its hydroelectric capabilities.
Experts say there is no guarantee that the rains will come and it is dangerous to rely on the changing climate because Zambia has experienced drought-related power problems before, and the trend is getting worse.
“It is not a solution… just sit and wait for nature,” said Hambayi.
