WASHINGTON (AP) — Months into Russia’s war in Ukraine, the United States has intelligence showing “sensitive and trusted conversations in the Kremlin” that President Vladimir Putin is seriously considering using nuclear weapons to avoid losses on the battlefield, journalist Bob Woodward reports in his new book , “War.”
US intelligence indicated a 50% chance that Putin would use tactical nukes if Ukrainian forces surrounded 30,000 Russian troops in the southern city of Kherson, the book said. Just a month earlier, in the far northeast, Ukrainian forces had surprised Russia by recapturing Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, and were rolling to liberate Kherson, strategically located on the Dnieper River not far from the Black Sea.
The national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, was “frightened” in his intelligence assessment – described from the best sources and methods – in late September 2022, seven months after the Russian invasion, the book said. This caused alarm in the Biden administration, moving the probability of Russia using nukes from 5% to 10% to now 50%.
According to Woodward’s account, President Joe Biden told Sullivan to “get in touch with the Russians. Tell them what we’re going to do in response.”
He said he used threatening language but was not very strong, the book said. Biden also went straight to Putin with a message, warning of “catastrophic consequences” if Russia uses nuclear weapons.
The latest book from the famous Watergate reporter also details Donald Trump’s conversations with Putin since leaving office, Biden’s frustration with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and more. The Associated Press obtained an early copy of Woodward’s book, which is due out next week.
The book provides chilling details of the US assessment of Putin’s likelihood of nuclear deployment, but the Biden administration’s concern that Russia could use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine is no secret. From the president down, many officials warned Putin not to fight back.
Putin and other Kremlin voices have also frequently threatened the West with Russia’s nuclear arsenal. In a strong and fresh warning to the West late last month, Putin said that any conventional attack by any country on nuclear-powered Russia would be considered a joint attack on his country.
The threat is aimed at dissuading the West from allowing Ukraine to attack Russia with longer-range weapons and appears to lower the usable threshold for Russia’s nuclear arsenal. Biden has not allowed Ukraine to strike military targets deeper inside Russia with US-supplied missiles for fear of escalating the war, despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asking for permission.
In another heated conversation described in Woodward’s book, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin faced his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, in October 2022.
“We know you’re thinking about using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine,” Austin said, according to Woodward. “Any use of nuclear weapons on any scale against anyone will be seen by the United States and the world as a world-changing event. There is no scale of nuclear weapons that we can forget or that the world can forget.
As Shoigu listened, Austin continued, stating that the US had not provided Ukraine with certain weapons and limited the use of the few provided. He warned that the restrictions would be reconsidered. He also noted that China, India, Turkey and Israel would isolate Russia if it used nuclear weapons.
“I don’t like being threatened,” Shoigu said, the book says.
“Mr. Minister,” said Austin. “I am the most powerful military leader in the history of the world. I didn’t make any threats.”
According to US officials, Austin’s October 21, 2022, Shoigu’s call was actually to warn Russia not to use nuclear weapons. The official said the call was controversial. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, confirmed that there were intelligence reports at the time that indicated increased potential for Russia to use nuclear weapons and raised concerns within the administration. The official said leaders across the government were told to call their counterparts to convey the same message.
US intelligence officials see China as Russia’s biggest influence, and Biden has called out Chinese President Xi Jinping for the need to curb it, Woodward wrote.
Xi agreed to warn Putin, according to the book. Biden and Xi met and agreed in November 2022 that “nuclear war will never happen” and noted their opposition to the use or threat to deploy nuclear weapons in Ukraine, a White House statement said at the time.
In terms of the war that began, the book details Biden’s criticism late last year of President Barack Obama’s handling of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and parts of the Donbas in 2014, when Biden served as the Democratic vice president.
“They f—– up in 2014,” Woodward wrote that Biden told a close friend in December, blaming the lack of action for Putin’s aggression in Ukraine. “Barack never took Putin seriously.”
Biden was angry when he spoke to the friend and said that he “wasn’t going to let Putin just walk in there” in 2014 and the US “didn’t do anything.”
White House spokeswoman Emilie Simons told reporters that “many books have been written about this administration and others” and “we’re not going to comment on every anecdote that might come out of a different report.”
