MLB Prop Picks: 3 Best Bets for Thursday (June 20)

Since today is a travel day in MLB, we have a lighter game, but we still managed to find three forward predictions that we like.

With the first game starting around 1pm ET, let’s get straight to it.

Play 1: Will Smith to Hit Home Run (+375) BetRivers

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies, 3:10 p.m. ET

We went with the Dodgers’ Will Smith a few days ago, but he had a great game today, so let’s go back to him and hope he can right the wrongs. The logic to support Smith is quite similar in that he wants to target people when he goes up against the left-handed pitcher, who is facing tonight in Ty Blach for the Rockies.

Despite being a pitcher for the Rockies and throwing a lot at Coors Field, Blach admits he doesn’t have horrendous home run numbers, but he’s worse against right-handed hitters. Blach has given up six home runs on the year, five of which have come against righties. This is also a good matchup for Smith considering Blach is in the mix as well. Blach usually throws sinkers (54% of the time), changeups (23% of the time) or cutters (15% of the time), and those are the only three pitches that Smith matches well and for power.

As mentioned, Smith is also better against left-handed pitchers in general. His ISO rate against LHP is .303, which would be fourth best in MLB if extrapolated out to all qualified batters, and his .667 slugging would be second only to Aaron Judge. The fly-ball rate, pull-rate and HardHit rate are also higher than LHP. Smith usually tries to put the ball in the air, as evidenced by the 13th-highest opening angle and the 11th highest fly-ball level, which always helps with home runs.

Play 2: Royce Lewis to Hit a Home Run (+400) Fanatics

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins, 1:10 ET

Minnesota 3B Royce Lewis has been on fire, so it’s a bit of a surprise that we’re still getting +400 odds to hit home runs. He’s only played in 14 games this year due to an injury suffered early in the season, but in those 14 games, he has an impressive eight home runs, giving him a .520 ISO rate. For context, the best ISO rate in MLB history was Barry Bonds in 2001 with an ISO rate of .536 when he hit 73 home runs.

While those numbers for Lewis are bound to drop at some point, he’s showing no signs of slowing down, so let’s back up if he stays hot. It’s not just the ISO level, because all advanced metrics look phenomenal. His barrel rate is 18.6% (anything above 15% is considered “excellent” by FanGraphs), which would be the third-highest barrel rate in MLB if he has enough at-bats to qualify.

His 48.8% fly-ball rate would have him tied with Will Smith for 11th highest in MLB and his 48.8% draw rate would have him tied for 14th highest in MLB. It’s another batter-pitcher matchup that should really favor the batter, as Lewis crushes his fastball and 4-seam slider, which Rays pitcher Zack Littell throws 66% of the time (40% slider and 26% 4-seam).

Play 3: Jose Ramirez to Hit a Home Run (+480) BetRivers

Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians, 1:10 p.m. ET

Finally, let’s go with a guy who has been with us a few times in the past, but is now in a slump. One of the better ways to break out of a slump is to go up against a pitcher who has taken yards twice in his career, which we are looking at with Cleveland third baseman Ramirez going up against Luis Castillo of the Mariners.

Ramirez had 14 at-bats against Castillo. In 14 at-bats, he had four total hits, with two home runs and a triple, with a .286 average, but an impressive three extra base hits. In the season, Ramirez has the 10th best ISO level in the MLB at .256, and he is one of only 14 batters who have a “excellent” season-long ISO level of .250 or above. He’s also tied for seventh in the MLB with 18 home runs, and the reason he’s been able to hit so many home runs is because he’s constantly looking for balls in the air.

His 50.2% fly-ball rate is the sixth highest in MLB, and his average launch angle of 19.1 degrees is 18. Castillo is a good pitcher, but he’s worse against lefties, and because Ramirez is a hitter, he will fight Castillo. Castillo has given up 11 home runs this year, seven of which have been to left-handed batters despite facing fewer left-handed hitters. The main reason why he has given up more home runs to lefties is because his fly-ball rate has increased from 39% against RHH to 50% against LHH, which would be the second-highest fly-ball rate in MLB. That goes with how Ramirez likes to go to the yard, making it a good matchup for Ramirez to beat.

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