Americans planning to make holiday cookies this year may have to scramble to track down key ingredients.
Some stores across the US are short of eggs, especially those operating in states that require eggs from cage-free chickens, due to cases of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) and the virus spreading from wild birds to commercial flocks. More than 40% of the country’s estimated 300 million egg-laying hens are raised in cage-free facilities, but about 60% of recently detected “bird flu” cases involve cage-free farms.
“After two months of no outbreaks, we’re now in Utah, Oregon, California and Washington, and all three states are cage-free,” Emily Metz, chief executive and president of the American Egg Council, told CBS MoneyWatch. “Where we hear reports of shortages is at stores like Whole Foods or Trader Joe’s.”
After a brief respite from bird flu among commercial egg producers, HPAI struck again from mid-October, resulting in the loss of 2.8 million birds. The country’s egg production fell 2.6% last month from a year ago and is expected to fall 1% this year compared to 2023, the US Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service recently said in its monthly report.
The outbreak, which began in January 2022, has affected nearly 110 million chickens, turkeys and other birds, including wild, commercial and backyard flocks in 49 states, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is the first time HPAI, also known as H5N1, has been detected in the US since 2016.
The return of bird flu has decimated poultry populations in commercial facilities in many states, most recently affecting more than a million laying hens in California’s Kern County, where HPAI had been confirmed in 2.2 million laying hens the previous week, according to the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service. USDA.
More than 790,000 egg layers were also disposed of last week at a commercial operation in Arizona’s Pinal County.
How long will the shortage last?
Tighter egg supplies mean the U.S. is experiencing “hyper-local shortages that are temporary and intermittent and sometimes fixed within a day,” said Metz, who markets and promotes eggs and egg products.
“There are local areas where supply is not strong enough, so you can see pockets being picked,” said Brent Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation.
After HPAI deficiency lead up egg prices in the spring, the virus has the same effect this winter. Experts predict that egg prices may remain elevated for the rest of the year and until 2025.
As the cost of other commodities, the price of eggs fluctuates with supply and demand, the latter remains stable throughout the year, regardless of cost, according to the Nelson Bureau of Agriculture. Egg board, however, said the American appetite for protein has grown of late, rising steadily for 20 consecutive quarters.
“We see egg prices go up when bird flu comes and goes,” Nelson said. Now, “Bird flu infection is the biggest factor affecting egg prices.”
The national average for a dozen eggs is $3.37, up 30% from a year ago but lower than the January 2023 average of $4.82, economists said. But some areas are seeing higher prices. In California, cage-free white eggs sold for $5.26 a dozen last week — up nearly 90% from $2.81 during the same period in 2023, according to the USDA.
Despite the rising prices, Nelson and Metz advised consumers not to stockpile perishable products like eggs, stressing that shortages are usually quick as retailers replenish supplies.
“Eggs keep well in the refrigerator — if you need them, go for them,” Nelson said.
Adds Metz, “There is chicken for almost everyone in the U.S. If it’s not in the supermarket today, it’s back tomorrow.”
