How can the F-16 help Ukraine against Russia?

It was a pivotal moment for Ukraine as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy watched two F-16 fighter jets roar overhead, after months of waiting for the fighter jets that Kyiv hopes will turn the dial on the war against Russia.

Flanked by two US-made fighter jets, Zelenskyy announced on Sunday that the country’s air force had begun operations using warplanes against Russia.

“The F-16 is in Ukraine. We did it. I am proud of the men who mastered the jet and have started using it for our country,” he said, speaking to pilots and military journalists at an undisclosed location in Ukraine.

“These jets are in our skies and today you can see them,” Zelenskyy added, thanking Ukraine’s allies for supplies during the opening ceremony on the Day of the Ukrainian Air Force. “It’s good that he’s here and working.”

Several of Ukraine’s European allies have pledged to send F-16s to Ukraine, and the first batch arrived in the country at the end of July. It is not certain how many fighter jets were sent to Ukraine.

On Sunday, Zelenskyy did not specify how many jets had been sent, but said more were expected. He also acknowledged that more pilots need to be trained to operate.

The arrival of the first combat aircraft in Ukraine remains a significant achievement – Kyiv repeatedly requested the aircraft from its allies during the months of the war. It has been waiting for US approval to export F-16 from an ally willing to transfer it to Ukraine, and then the training of Ukrainian pilots using the aircraft has also been going on for months.

Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium and Norway have agreed to send about 80 planes to Ukraine, although the delivery times vary. Most are not expected until 2025.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in July that F-16s from Denmark and the Netherlands will be ‘in the skies of Ukraine this summer.’

Ukraine has lobbied its NATO allies for the F-16 since the start of the war against Russia, arguing that the jets would be able to defend airspace, ground forces and critical infrastructure from Russian attacks, as well as attack the enemy. more effective targets.

Russia has cut off its supply of F-16s, with Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying last Thursday that Russian forces were ready to shoot down the F-16 jets.

“There is no ‘miracle pill’ here. There is no panacea,” he told reporters last Thursday, according to Russian state news agency Tasss.

“The armed forces of the Kyiv regime will not get a universal medicine. They should know about this. If the plane appears, their number will decrease. They will be shot down and destroyed. This supply will not be able to have a significant impact on the development on the front line,” he said.

Peskov said Russian soldiers had been offered a reward for destroying the F-16.

Kyiv is tight-lipped about the weapons the F-16 will be equipped with, as well as the aircraft’s targets. On Sunday, Zelenskyy suggested the mission would be kept secret, saying it was “dangerous” to comment on how the F-16 would be used.

Defense analysts say it can carry longer-range missiles, giving Ukraine a greater ability to attack Russian forces that control the southern and eastern regions of the country.

“The F-16 model that Ukraine has now launched is a clear step from the Soviet-era jets inherited from the USSR, which have superior radar capabilities and a longer range. At the same time, the Ukrainian F-16 should not be seen as a weapon change the game in the war with Russia,” Mykola Bielieskov, a researcher at the National Institute for Strategic Studies think tank, said in an analysis last week.

“One of the obvious problems is the quantity. Ukraine has so far received only a few F-16s, with a total of 24 jets expected to arrive by the end of 2024. week in order to effectively counter Russian air power, the country needs a fleet of 128 F-16 jets, ” said Bieliskov.

The fledgling fleet of F-16s also has access to a limited selection of weapons, analysts say, with the aircraft’s effectiveness likely to be limited by a ban on using Western weapons against targets in Russia.

“It remains unclear whether Kyiv can count on longer-range strike capabilities, despite recent reports that the US has agreed to arm Ukrainian F-16s with American-made missiles and other advanced weapons,” Bielieskov said. He said the jets were used to strengthen the country’s air defenses.

“The jet will improve Ukraine’s ability to prevent Russian pilots from entering Ukrainian airspace, and will also be able to target Russian cruise missiles in flight. This is particularly important as Russia has recently demonstrated its increased ability to bypass existing surface-to-air defense systems and attack them targeting civil infrastructure in Ukraine,” he said.

“Ukraine’s F-16 will be challenged to independently create conditions for the desired breakthrough in the war with Russia,” defense analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies agreed.

“But with the right strategy, doctrinal approach, logistical support, and training, the F-16 can provide critical advances in improving Ukraine’s border defenses and establishing local air superiority, significantly strengthening Ukraine’s position on the ground,” Christopher Koeltzow, Brent Peterson, and Eric Williams noted in his analysis.

Ukraine’s need for F-16s has become even more acute, as the country’s air force — which largely relies on Soviet-era aircraft — faces an enemy that is superior in the skies in the form of Russian Su-34 precision bombers.

As with the delay in supplying battle tanks to Ukraine, the decision to provide F-16s has not been immediate, with Ukraine’s international partners wary of tensions with Russia.

The hold-up over the decision has caused frustration in Kyiv and has arguably given Russian forces time and space to slow their advance in the east of the country, after launching a new offensive earlier in the summer.