The race to control the House is tight. Classic political jumpball. It is difficult to judge which way the House will tilt.
Republicans are heavily favored to win the Senate. But almost all competitive Senate contests are thin. Pennsylvania. Ohio. Michigan. Wisconsin. Texas suddenly came into play. Some observers would not rule out Florida. Montana seems far from Democratic. Democrats seem to be doing well in Arizona. But what happens if former President Trump wins Arizona? Republicans could capture a Senate majority with a solid 53 or 54 seats — even if all those races were decided by just one or two percentage points.
However, we could be talking about a very different scenario for control of the House and Senate if President Biden does not withdraw from his re-election bid in mid-July.
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On July 21, the President said he would resign because “it is in the interest of my party and the country.”
House and Senate Democrats breathed a sigh of relief.
Although many won’t admit it publicly – even now – they fear that Mr Biden has lost more than a step. He looked tired. Sometimes it was inappropriate during the debate last June with former President Trump. Some were excited. He worries that another Biden candidacy will drain all enthusiasm from the Democratic side. Former President Trump will attack Mr. Biden in the race for the White House. But what is truly terrifying is the influence of President Biden who will be re-elected in the election race.
President Joe Biden is pictured in front of the US Capitol. (Getty Images)
Competitive Senate seats in Pennsylvania and Ohio? Probably down the drain.
Former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., prognosticated that the GOP will pick up several dozen seats in 2022. McCarthy may be dead by two years. Mr. Biden at the top of the ticket is likely to cause bloodshed in the House contest.
Now, House is anybody’s football.
Biden campaign officials met with House Democrats at the Democratic National Committee on a brisk morning in mid-July. Some senior House Democrats like Rep. Jim Clyburn, D.S.C., declared they were “ridin’ with Biden” when he entered the forum. But the ground has changed.
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The president is determined to stay in the race. But former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., always remembers the caucus she used to lead. Pelosi knows the political disaster that may await Democrats if the President does not step aside. San Francisco Democrats could not publicly call Mr. Biden to quit. Pelosi will be more artistic than that. He calmly invited concerned Democrats to speak. Without directly saying anything, a groundswell of Congressional Democrats began demanding the President bow out.
A group of Biden advisers gathered with moribund Senate Democrats at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) on a sweltering afternoon in mid-July. Almost every Senate Democrat in attendance tried to avoid the press. In fact, many drivers take a few hundred meters from the Senate wing of the Capitol to the DSCC across the street. All for the press corps duck. His silence speaks volumes about President Biden remaining in the race.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, DN.Y., even visited President Biden in Delaware, hours before he attempted to assassinate former President Trump in Pennsylvania. News of Schumer’s audience with the president disappeared into the environment of news coverage of the disaster in Butler, Penn. But Schumer fears a GOP implosion if Mr. Biden stalls.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) leaves a news conference with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee on Capitol Hill on July 23, 2024, in Washington, DC. (Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)
The former Speaker’s deft touch is classic Pelosi. A reader of the climate. No fingerprints. A winked and nodded. A green light for others to do something. A person close to Pelosi once explained the subtlety of the former Speaker: “You’ll bleed out and you won’t know you’ve been cut.”
When Pelosi served as Speaker, allies and opponents alike were surprised by how much she got the votes. Helping manage President Biden’s exit from the presidential ballot is no different. Just move the improbable to nowhere.
A longtime confidant of Pelosi told me years ago that Pelosi knew how to carefully prod House Democrats to move constituents in her district. Constituents will then support the issues presented – providing cover for Members to vote yes and not face blowback. The current base supports the issue. But not without some sneaky techniques from Pelosi.
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Such sneaky tactics were also played to convince Mr. Biden to step down. After a few weeks of this massage behind the scenes, the President understood that he had no alternative but to stop. If not, he might lose. Congressional Democrats will resign themselves to their fate.
Vice President Harris could win. But Democrats never had a primary season to choose their candidate. confident. Harris is likely to be favored first in the conventional primary process. That’s only because he ran for president before and has been Vice President for almost four years. But the quick pivot to Harris was in the interest of efficiency. After President Biden steps down, Democrats have an automatic nominee who is credible, has qualifications and a resume that fits the party. So switching mid-stream to Harris was a seamless transition.
Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., speaks during the Democratic National Convention Wednesday, August 21, 2024, in Chicago. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
But, most importantly, handing the keys to Harris immediately infuses congressional Democrats and their base with the energy they need. These changes have put Democrats in a position that President Biden could not have done. Suddenly, congressional Democrats are back in the game.
Republicans have a strong chance to win the Senate on Tuesday night. But if Mr. Biden remains at the top of the ticket, Democrats face a tidal wave. Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., appears on the ropes. There is a tight race involving Sens. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisc., Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio and Bob Casey, D-Penn. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., is in a dogfight in Michigan with former Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., for the seat of retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich. Even Rep. Colin Allred, D-Tex., has punched his chance in the Senate race with Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Tex. It is conceivable that Democrats may lose most or all of these races if President Biden remains the choice. But thanks to the president’s decision, Democrats are now competitive across the board and may win some — even if they lose control of the Senate.
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The same is true in the House. It’s a nip-and-tuck. yes already. Republicans may hold a narrow majority — or even gain seats in the best-case scenario. But Democrats are well positioned in every battleground district to gain ground. It won’t be like that if the President is stuck.
So that’s the basic lesson of President Biden’s seismic decision in July to quit: it may increase the chances of a Democrat holding the White House. But the real dividends of the president’s decision may be realized on Capitol Hill. Not by holding the Senate and winning the House. But by avoiding the evil blast.
