William Watson: Fifty ways to lose an election

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Singer-songwriter Paul Simon once wrote about “50 ways to leave your lover.” An analysis I read this morning after the US election showed there are also 50 ways to lose an election. (For those who like cultural references from this century, Miley Cyrus covered “50 ways” in 2015 and has covered it at least six times since.)

As of this writing, the popular vote is 51.0 percent for Donald Trump and 47.5 percent for Kamala Harris. Good for Trump! That’s more than half, which doesn’t always happen and hasn’t happened much lately. And more than Harris got, the winner of the Republican also does not always end recently. One of the concerns about the election is that the results will be ambiguous, which will lead to all kinds of social unrest. The results are not ambiguous, and the counting and, at least in this first hour, the results are good. Supporters of democracy, both Republicans and Democrats, cannot dispute the results of what is clearly a free and fair election.

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However, even if it is not ambiguous, the result is close. If one person in 50 had changed their mind, the popular vote would have been tied. If one person in 25 switches, it will reverse. That may not be enough for Harris to win, given the lop-sided importance of swing states. But it doesn’t suggest how hard it is to figure out the straw that actually broke the Democrats’ back (a sheaf of straws, really, because it’s not even close). As of mid-morning yesterday, CNN had a total of 138 million votes. One-in-25 out of 138 million is 5.5 million. What are those 5.5 million people thinking? Why did they choose him and not give him the scales?

You only get one vote. Each candidate is a mix of personal characteristics, policies and who knows what associations the voters have in mind. I suspect very few are single issue voters who are truly “If I know their views on abortion, I know how to vote.” Most people juggle many considerations when looking at candidates.

Imagine you are shopping by choosing between two lists of 20 products prepared for you by someone else. Your only option is to buy list A or list B. You can’t pick and choose the products you want. You need groceries so you can choose between lists. But what made you choose A over B? Is it blueberries, feta cheese, bran flakes, tacos? Everyone will have a different answer. If the exercise is repeated millions of times, the person making the list can use sophisticated statistical methods to figure out what balances, averages, and adjusts the list. But it’s better, of course, to let people make their own choices, buy what they want and get rid of what they don’t. Thus, the market maximizes consumer satisfaction.

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Politics could be like that if we had direct democracy and people could vote on individual policies (though not on the characteristics of individual candidates: Kamala, please stop laughing!; Donald: a lighter shade of orange, please!). But direct democracy also has disadvantages, including people who pay less attention. In general, it is better to appoint a representative to handle these details, although this may lead to bundling problems.

What combination of characteristics and policies did marginal voters approve of by sending Trump back to Washington and giving him, not an “unprecedented” mandate, as Trump claimed in his victory speech, but a supportive Congress?

Stronger restrictions, which isn’t a bad thing, though mass deportations — like the 2017-18 separation of children from their families — won’t survive the first few disturbing videos. Tariffs – which is ironic because they will lead to more inflation, so many commentators believe that voters who do not like Democrats. A lowering of other taxes, which will be good for economic growth and employment (and Canada, thus partially offset the damage from tariffs). Even more energetic attack on the administrative state than in the first term: also good for growth and employment (and us).

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But, in addition: a difficult journey for non-paying NATO members (like us). Appeasement of Vladimir Putin. Leave Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The economic confrontation with China is combined with a military retreat. Aggressive renegotiation of USMCA-CUSMA, means resource management will be on the table (good!) no matter whether the Liberals and the Bloc agree on takeovers.

And, of course, Trumpian chaos: tweets at night, boorish denunciations of the enemy, ALL-CAPS rants, possible prosecution of the enemy (in the tradition of Biden), outlandish threats, rampant unpredictability (which can sometimes be good strategically), consolidation of MAGAism, and, if full service, 82 years president.

“Fifty Ways To Leave Your Lover” was released on the album “Still Crazy After All These Years,” which this morning after Trump’s re-election also seemed appropriate.

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