Former President Donald Trump is expected to announce his vice presidential pick any time now (though the smart money is on next week). The three front-runners for the project, according to various reports, are North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum and Sens. Marco Rubio and JD Vance.
And the stakes for these people seem high. With Trump constitutionally limited to serving one more term as president, if he wins, the vice president will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028. We know that Burgum and Rubio, at least, have presidential ambitions – both have been involved in the gig in the past.
However, if they think being Trump’s running mate will stamp their ticket to the White House, they should think again. The vice-presidential candidate doesn’t really have a very strong record of running for president – so in general, people might be underestimating the significance of Trump’s choice.
From 1972 (when the modern presidential election era began) to 2016, 18 people appeared on the ballot as Democratic or Republican vice presidential nominees.* Only two went on to become president: George HW Bush and Joe Biden. Of course, there is still the possibility that some of the more recent VP nominees, such as Sen. Tim Kaine or former Vice President Mike Pence, could eventually make it to the Oval Office — but even in that unlikely scenario, it’s still not a high batting average.
Of course, the biggest X factor here is the winner this election. Trump’s running mate would have a better chance of becoming president one day if he ran for vice president first. Of the 10 vice presidents who served between 1972 and 2020, ** seven went on to become president, and five won the party’s nomination. But, of course, only Bush and Biden won general election.
This confirms that, in a world where the Republicans take the White House this year, vice president Trump will enter the 2028 Republican presidential election as a strong favorite (if he decides to run). But it’s also a good reminder that winning the nomination is only half the battle.
And if Trump and his mate run don’t winning the 2024 election is, in all likelihood, the only way the VP will ever see the White House in the demo. Of the 10 vice presidential candidates since 1972 who have never been vice president, none have become president. One – former Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole – went on to win his party’s presidential nomination, but it took him three tries!
Even worse, only four out of 10 even run for the president. Obviously, this is ultimately under the control of the candidate himself, but it explains how damaging it can be to a losing presidential campaign. For example, former Governor of Alaska Sarah Palin refused to open in 2012 after being widely blamed for dragging down then-Sen. John McCain in 2008.
Of course, things may be different in 2028. Past presidential candidates who lost couldn’t hold the party the way Trump did after 2020 – and maybe even after 2024. It’s over before they really started.
On the other hand, it is possible that Trump does not want to get rid of the new generation of leaders and wants to run again in the end. Or the GOP may finally be ready to move on from Trump – and Trumpism – and turn to someone else instead. Either way, there is no guarantee that the person Trump chooses as his running mate has a future in presidential politics.
Footnotes
*I use the phrase “appearing on the ballot” on purpose, as this number does not include former Sens. Thomas Eagleton, who was the early Democratic nominee for vice president in 1972. He was later removed from the ticket, however, after it was revealed that he had it. receiving electroshock therapy for depression.
**Former President Gerald Ford and former Vice President Nelson Rockefeller are among the 10 VP but not the 18 VP nominees because neither is actually running for vice president; Ford became vice president only after the resignation of former Vice President Spiro Agnew, and Rockefeller became vice president after Ford conceded the presidency.
