Venezuelans Advance in Polls to Test Commitment to Democracy

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(Bloomberg) — For the first time in more than a decade, Venezuelans are hoping for a chance at democracy.

Voters began lining up at polling stations across the country on Sunday to choose between President Nicolás Maduro, whose 11-year grip on power has seen one of the worst humanitarian and economic crises in modern history, and a candidate who is not on the ballot. .

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Former lawmaker María Corina Machado – banned by Maduro’s government from seeking public office – has become popular on calls to dissolve government control over the economy, privatize the oil industry and reunite families broken by the exodus of 7.7 million Venezuelans. It culminated in a powerful citizens’ movement not seen in the country since the late Hugo Chávez, Maduro’s mentor and idol, toppled the political establishment in the late 1990s.

Machado has endorsed and campaigned alongside the incumbent candidate, former diplomat Edmundo González, 74, who is facing Maduro, 61.

All eyes will be on the transparency and fairness of the vote, especially after the US reinstated costly sanctions for what it said were violations of the deal for free elections. The presence of a small mission from the Carter Center and the United Nations, hundreds of local observers, as well as a network of approximately 30,000 volunteer witnesses, can play an important role in reducing the potential risk of disruption. Venezuela withdrew an invitation to observe the vote from the more powerful European Union bloc.

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It’s hard to imagine Maduro giving up power, especially given his repression of opposition parties so far and his history of fraudulent elections. One of the biggest challenges is to prove that the vote is fair enough to give it legitimacy among its people and around the world. If González wins, his biggest challenge will be to manage a peaceful transition of power in a government stacked with Chavista loyalists.

But whoever leads Venezuela in the next six years must continue economic recovery, secure sanctions on oil, the country’s main export and main source of income, and negotiate a $158 billion debt restructuring.

Maduro was able to win through a combination of biased electoral authority, intimidation and voter suppression. The government controls 3 of the 5 directors of the National Electoral Council, the most important of which is its president, Elvis Amoroso – best known for removing Machado, 56, from public office.

That’s why voter turnout will matter, according to Geoff Ramsey, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.

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“Alanche votes” will make it “impossible” for the government to tamper, he said. However, Maduro’s government could use a low voter turnout. He was able to use “patronage networks and a general climate of intimidation to suppress opposition.”

Of Venezuela’s 28 million citizens, more than 21 million have registered to vote, according to electoral authority figures. The turnout is expected to be similar to the vote in the 2012 and 2013 presidential elections, when abstention was around 20%.

The main voting bloc for González, Venezuelans living abroad, were largely ineligible to participate, leaving some 4.5 million registered voters on the sidelines. Absentee voting can only take place in countries that have diplomatic relations with the Maduro government, and requires a successful update of data in the electoral registry. Those in places like the US or Canada can fly back to vote, but most can’t afford it.

Unlike other general elections, Maduro’s face was plastered on posters and billboards around the capital. Some brightly colored, pop-art portraits of the president. In another case, photos of students, parents and natives were displayed above a message that read: “Faith in our people, Maduro is president.”

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Advertisements for González are rare, partly due to fear of retaliation for being printed or posted. More than 100 people who supported Machado and González in any way were arrested this year, according to the nonprofit Foro Penal.

Polling stations are expected to close around 6pm local time, or until there are no more people waiting in line to vote. Maduro reiterated that election authorities would announce the results as early as 10 p.m.

If the government conducts fake elections, the loyalty of the armed forces will be the key to suppress any protests or crises. Maduro has turned over a large and profitable sector of the economy to the military, putting soldiers in key positions at the state oil producer, PDVSA, and authorizing defense officials to monitor mining and ports.

Veronica, a Caracas resident who asked to withhold her last name for fear of being targeted by the government, said she was preparing essential items to prepare indoors in case tensions rise after the vote.

“The anxiety that is happening in Venezuela is not easy,” said the 22-year-old marketing student. “I buy canned tuna, eggs, products that don’t expire quickly, and even candles in case of blackouts after the election.”

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On July 25, the official closing of the campaign season, Maduro’s supporters gathered in the downtown street of Bolivar Avenue, where salsa bands played at top volume and street vendors sold snacks and drinks, creating a festive atmosphere. This is the same place where Chavez spoke with his packed crown in October 2012, when he closed his last presidential campaign before dying of cancer the following year.

Many in the crowd said they were government workers, bused from their offices, wearing Maduro campaign shirts, and were even fed. Rina, a 26-year-old who asked to withhold her last name for fear of being targeted by the government, is among those who say she was forced to attend rallies but did not support Maduro’s re-election.

Others were enthusiastic about the president. “They’ve had difficulties since Chavez died,” said Apolinar Espinoza, 65, who works for the government’s recycling program. “For better and for worse, he’s been there, giving people what they can.”

Almost four miles away, supporters of Machado and González gathered along the sidewalk in Las Mercedes, a bustling neighborhood east of downtown, trying to catch a glimpse of the opposition duo. As the caravan approached, people started screaming and raising their cellphones to show family and friends they had been taped on video calls.

Mariana Tales, a 20-year-old nursing student, held up a handmade poster that said “Liberty Tour,” similar to Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour. He said he considered the septuagenarian González to be the spirit of the pop star’s family – and someone whose policies he hoped would allow families living abroad to return home.

“I just want my brother, and mostly my father, back,” he said. “I want economic freedom. I want regular electricity in my house.”

—With assistance from Alex Vasquez.

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