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Conservative MPs stunned Westminster by swinging to the right, ousting centrist candidate James Cleverly in the race to succeed Rishi Sunak.
In a surprise move, the former home secretary was removed from the contest on Wednesday evening, leaving Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch – the two candidates favored by the party’s right – to face members’ votes.
Tory MPs appear to have calculated that they need to move to the right to win back votes from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK as well as bring back voters at home. While elections are usually won from the middle ground, more former Tory voters left Reform than Labor and the Lib Dems combined.
This means that Keir Starmer could win a majority with fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn when he was humiliated by Boris Johnson in 2019.
This comes despite Mr Cleverly, who is the bookmakers’ favorite to win the contest, rising to first place in Tuesday’s election after winning the support of 39 MPs.
Many observers expect him to do battle with one of his more right-wing rivals in the final head-to-head.
But in Wednesday’s round of voting, he lost the support of two MPs, taking him to 37 votes while Ms Badenoch got 42 votes and Mr Jenrick was one vote behind on 41.
It has led to allegations of vote debt and suggestions that the Cleverly camp may have overestimated support and asked MPs to support Jenrick in the belief that it could be easier to defeat in the final two with members.
Mr Cleverly’s withdrawal from the race comes a day after centrist One Nation candidate Tom Tugendhat, a former security minister and favorite of Tory One Nation MPs, lost after being backed by just 20 votes.
The removal of the former home secretary comes despite her appearance of victory from MPs and party members at the annual conference in Birmingham, with a speech on the main stage receiving the best response of the four candidates.
Meanwhile, the advancement of Ms. Badenoch to the final two came in spite of some hiccups over the course of the conference, with missteps in paying the mother and her suggestion that some civil servants “should be in prison”.
The final two MPs will now face Tory members’ online vote from October 10 to 31, with the winner of the contest announced on November 2.
After Wednesday’s results were announced, Mr Cleverly thanked the support he had received during the campaign, calling on the party to unite to “defend this disastrous Labor government.”
But within minutes of the results being announced, Mr Jenrick – who has stepped up his rhetoric on migration in recent weeks – tried to draw a dividing line between himself and Badenoch with a campaign source saying the race was “now a choice between Leave or Remain. at the ECHR”.
Mr Jenrick had previously told supporters the party had to decide to leave the convention “or die”, warning it would still mean “exposing our people to dangerous criminals on our streets”.
But Ms Badenoch’s team has shown the comments misrepresent her position, saying she will leave the ECHR “if necessary… but that will be part of a comprehensive plan not just a throwaway promise to win the leadership contest”.
Reacting to Wednesday’s ballot, Labor leader Ellie Reeves said Tory members had the “unenviable task of choosing between the two architects of Tory failure”.
“Both Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick have been key figures in their 14 years of leadership and setbacks, and have proven that they have learned nothing from the mistakes that have cost the Conservative Party its worst defeat in modern history.
“When the endless bickering continues, Labor fixes the basics and sort out the mess that the two deeply unimpressive figures left behind”, she said.
Following the result, Mr Jenrick’s campaign threw a challenge to Ms Badenoch, challenging her to a series of debates over the remainder of the campaign with the first one next week.
Jenrick’s campaign source said he “is up for debate anytime, anywhere and anywhere”.
The source added: “Members will face a choice between electing a candidate with a serious, detailed policy plan to fix the three biggest issues across four categories of voters – Reform, Labour, Lib Dem and Conservative voters – the NHS, the economy and migration.
“Or risk being pulled down an endless rabbit hole of Twitter spats and distractions.”
