It’s been nearly two years since the conservative Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, a decision that protected access to abortion for nearly 50 years, triggered a series of seismic events in American political history.
And if the overturning of Roe was indeed an earthquake, the aftershocks will not stop, even if the dissenting court cautiously backed away this week from banning the abortion pill.
Dobbs vs. Jackson, the 2022 case that allowed states to ban or restrict abortion in unprecedented — and unpopular — ways also opened the door to countless other legislative conversations and actions that have disrupted women’s reproductive rights for generations.
Does kicking the problem up to the states mean they can just vote to ban it? Yes, it has. Abortion is now banned in almost all circumstances in 14 countries.
Will women who have abortions be thrown in jail? Some state lawmakers said enthusiastically, “yes!” and others have tried to capture women. Former President Donald Trump, for his part, said he was open to punishing women.
Will doctors and anyone who helps obtain illegal abortions be prosecuted or punished? Well, in some cases, it seems.
Is contraception safe from the clutches of far-right judges and lawmakers? Not if you’re talking to Senate Republicans.
What about IVF – in vitro fertilization – a practice that millions of women use to get pregnant, and which 86% of Americans want to keep legal? That’s also in the crosshairs as states like Alabama decide that destroying unused embryos is murder.
It’s not clear that pro-life advocates of overturning Roe have weighed all the consequences of getting what they want — including politics.
After all, this is an election year, and these aftershocks continue to rock Republicans running for office across the country, prompting headlines like these:
“Republicans Receive Nightmare Poll News.”
And the numbers are like this:
Sixty-three percent of Americans say they cannot support an elected official who believes in a nationwide abortion ban.
Sixty percent of independents are unhappy that Roe was overturned, and nearly 40% of Republicans say the same.
Fifty-nine percent of Americans believe abortion should be legal.
And every time Republicans manage to muscle through one bad news cycle that is in the spotlight for opposing women’s reproductive rights, another one puts people right back in.
This week, a one-two punch: First, Southern Baptists representing nearly 13 million members across the country voted Wednesday to oppose IVF.
In Indianapolis, 10,000 delegates called “messengers” gathered at the annual Southern Baptist Convention and voted to “reaffirm the unconditional value and right to life of every human being, including those in the embryonic stage, and only use reproductive technologies that are compatible with this affirmation.” , especially in the number of embryos produced in the IVF process.
And on Thursday, the Senate took a procedural vote on a legislative package to protect IVF access, which Republicans killed.
Put the fact that efforts to criminalize IVF puts the Republicans in an uncomfortable and hypocritical position of having to oppose the creation of life while condemning the destruction of it, a familiar position given that pro-life advocates sometimes against abortions even in the case of saving the life of the mother.
And put aside the fact that IVF is very popular across party lines and even in evangelical circles. The threat to limit, ban or criminalize is stupid math at any time, but especially in an election year.
The wildest part of this is the Republicans who thought that overturning Roe was a practical victory, unable to imagine what the political defeat would be like.
The 2022 midterm elections, which took place just months after Dobbs, were a decisive victory for Democrats. And voters in battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania say abortion is the most important issue in the election, not inflation or crime in favor of the GOP.
Before Dobbs the midterms looked very bad for Democrats — “disastrous,” according to Politico. President Biden has low approval ratings, voters are sick of the economy, crime, and the migrant crisis and midterms are typically bad for incumbent presidents.
But because of abortion, the Dems can stem the coming red tide.
The situation hasn’t changed much – Biden’s approval rating is still low, and the economy, crime and immigration are still important issues for many voters.
But the issue of women’s reproductive rights, due to its never-ending ripple effect and damaging news cycle for Republicans, still threatens to save Democrats and Biden from another Trump administration and a Republican win.
Overturning Roe is a bomb that continues to explode, even years after the initial explosion. In the end, it could be the GOP’s nail in the coffin.
SE Cupp is the host of “SE Cupp Unfiltered” on CNN.
