That is now quiet in all but one MLB division-title hunt is just a long, slow inhale for the approaching storm of chaos that is set to start only when October comes.
Five of MLB’s six division leaders have at least a four-game lead going into Saturday, leaving the regular season down to the last three weeks where several innings have been lost.
The American League East was the lone exception to the division’s calm, with the Baltimore Orioles holding a slim half-game lead over the New York Yankees.
The Cleveland Cavaliers in the AL Central and the Houston Astros in the AL West are up 4 1/2 games. In the National League, the Philadelphia Phillies have an eight-game lead in the East, while the Milwaukee Brewers are up nine games in the Central. The Los Angeles Dodgers have a tenuous lead by comparison in four games in the West.
The chase division isn’t exactly must-see theater right now, and maybe it’s just right. Recent playoff history tells us that it’s best to look elsewhere if the drama of a sprint to a championship is what you want.
In 2023, it’s a pair of wild-card teams facing off in the World Series when the Arizona Diamondbacks meet the eventual champion Texas Rangers. This is only the third time in history that two wild card teams have faced off for the title.
When the playoffs expand to three wild-card teams in 2022, the odds of that happening will only increase. The 12-team playoffs were created under a five-year collective bargaining agreement that expires after the 2026 season.
During the first extended season in 2022, the NL’s third wild card is the Philadelphia Phillies, and it’s a chance for a World Series berth.
Wild-card teams have a greater sense of urgency, or so the theory goes. Since they are chasing the team at the front in the division while having to fend off the threat of a wild card around them, the sense of urgency has increased. They’ve been in playoff mode longer.
Except this season paints from a different perspective. The loser of the Orioles-Yankees division chase will likely be a wild card. The other two wild-card hopefuls — the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals — aren’t threatened by the wild-card pack behind them.
In the National League, the NL West is expected to have two wild-card teams, with the Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres currently holding the spots. The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets are set to battle for third place.
Barring unforeseen circumstances, the six-team AL playoff field is set. Seven of the six teams look set to be decided in the NL, though the receding Chicago Cubs could keep pace with the pack, possibly having momentum to carry into October.
Given the theory that late-season momentum is an important indicator of who has a strong chance of making it to the World Series, the AL East chase should be the most critical. And not for those who won the division, but those who didn’t.
It’s not like the Orioles or Yankees would prefer to be in a three-game win-or-go-home wild-card series, but the teams in those spots will start the playoffs without delay—unlike the top two teams in each. league that received a bye.
In the world of play-everyday baseball, not having a significant interruption in playing time has advantages. Winning the wild-card series gives you a catapult that a division champion will never have.
Sound impolite? confident. But that’s exactly how it was last season.
The Rangers roared past the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles to open the playoffs on a five-game winning streak to earn an ALCS berth. The Diamondbacks eliminated the Dodgers in the NLDS after blowing past the Milwaukee Brewers in the wild card round while also winning their first five playoff games. In 2022 Phillies blazes the same trail.
NFL teams may welcome the playoffs with open arms, while MLB teams will welcome them with open arms.
So watch these final three weeks of the regular season to see who has the most momentum … and also to see who has the healthiest pitching staff.
