-
Brooke Pryor, ESPN Staff Writer
We’re more than halfway through the 2024 regular season, so it’s a good time to take a look at the leading candidates for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award.
Our panel — which includes Jeremy Fowler, Mike Tannenbaum, Matt Miller, Jordan Reid, Kalyn Kahler, Seth Walder, Dan Graziano, Field Yates, Matt Bowen, Aaron Schatz, Dan Orlovsky, Ben Solak and myself — ranks the best players in the race MVP over 11 weeks. We used those 13 sets of rankings to compile a consensus of the top five contenders.
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson still reigns supreme as our front-runner MVP, but the gap between him and the rest of the field has closed. To no one’s surprise, the quarterbacks highlighted the run. But who collected the latest five? A walk back? In this economy? Believe me.
Here’s a look at the top MVP candidates, three players who just missed the mark and are still around after Week 11.
All odds via ESPN BET.
Skip to section:
top five | Who just missed it?
Stock | The stock is down
Big question
Current obstacles: +185
2024 statistics: 2,876 yards passing, 25 TDs, 3 INTs, 75.2 QBR (584 yards rushing, 2 TDs)
Even after looking more human than superhero in his last outing against the Steelers, Jackson is our pick to win his third MVP. He remained in the top spot despite Sunday’s loss, when he threw an interception and posted his lowest completion percentage (48.5%) since 2021.
With 25 touchdown passes, he has scored more in 11 games than in his 2023 MVP season (24). Jackson is also second only to Bengals signal-caller Joe Burrow in QBR and passing yards. The path to another MVP award — and the Ravens’ to a division title — doesn’t get any easier from here. Next up are the Chargers, who are holding opponents to 14.5 points per game. Jackson also had rematches with the Steelers and Browns left, giving him a shot at redemption or a window of opportunity for Bills quarterback Josh Allen to slip past him for the first MVP.
Current obstacles: +150
2024 statistics: 2,543 passing yards, 18 TDS, 5 INTs, 72.5 QBR (316 rushing yards, 5 TDs)
Speaking of Allen, he made his most convincing case yet in Sunday’s win over the Chiefs and perennial MVP contender Patrick Mahomes. Allen had a touchdown and a pick in the win, but his legs made the difference. He ran 12 times for 55 yards, though none were more important — to the win or his MVP candidacy — than his 26-yard fourth-quarter scramble for the game-sealing touchdown.
Perhaps the best part of Allen’s MVP campaign was that he did it without Robin settling into Batman. In the aftermath of the Stefon Diggs trade, the Bills have relied on an ensemble cast instead of an elite top receiver. Still, Allen found success spreading the ball. Eleven different Bills players have caught touchdown throws from him.
Current obstacles: +650
2024 statistics: 2,492 yards passing, 20 TDs, 9 INTs, 59.2 QBR (39 yards rushing)
A month ago, Goff was barely on the MVP radar, but those days seem long gone. After perhaps his worst performance with the Lions in a five-interception game against the Texans, Goff wrote the pièce de résistance of his MVP campaign against the Jaguars on Sunday. He threw for 412 yards with four touchdowns with only five incompletions. It was his second game this season with a QBR over 93.
Goff isn’t just winning with good numbers, he’s been efficient this season. Against the Titans, he completed only 12 of 15 attempts for 85 yards, but three of those completions were touchdown passes. He has an uphill battle to pass Jackson and Allen in the MVP race, but more performances like that against the Jaguars will help him earn a spot.
Current obstacles: +1200
2024 statistics: 2,404 yards passing, 15 TDs, 11 INTs, 67 QBR (167 yards rushing, 1 TD)
Is there even an MVP discussion without Mahomes? Though the Chiefs quarterback has been, dare I say it, pedestrian — at least by their standards — he has undeniably been a key factor in the team’s early losing streak. With 11 interceptions for 15 touchdowns this season — including two picks and three scores in the loss to the Bills — Mahomes is on pace to post a career-high 18 interceptions and a career-low 25 touchdown passes.
Even though he has played most of the season without his top two receivers (Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice), Mahomes has kept the offense going. With DeAndre Hopkins now in the fold, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he made a late season surge, especially with games against the Panthers and Raiders on deck.
Current obstacles: +6000
2024 statistics: 1,137 yards rushing, 8 TDs; 210 receiving yards, 2 TDs
Who says this is just a quarterback award? Realistically, it’s a long shot to be a running back, but Barkley has been a dream addition to the Eagles offense – and a nightmare for Giants general manager Joe Schoen and the New York regime that let him walk.
Running the league’s fastest offense, Barkley is second only to Derrick Henry in total rushing yards. He leads the league in average yards per game (113.7) and rushing of 10 yards or more (26) and has rushed for 100 yards in four of the past five games. He is on pace to set a new career high and eclipse the rookie mark of 11 touchdowns; which is 5.8 meters per performance is also a career mark.
Just miss it
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (+2500)
Don’t look now, but with a 75.1 QBR that ranks behind only Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson, Murray has been one of the best pros of the season. He has thrown only three picks for 12 touchdowns, and has continued to be a threat with his feet, averaging 8.1 meters per carry with four touchdowns.
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders (+2500)
Daniels’ past two games are a reminder that he’s still a rookie, but he’s still coming off an impressive season with 14 total touchdowns to just three interceptions. His 67.8 QBR ranks fifth in the league, ahead of Mahomes and Jalen Hurts.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (+2500)
Herbert completed less than half of the attempts against the Bengals, but still finished with almost 300 yards passing, two touchdowns, no interceptions, a team-leading 65 yards rushing and the game-winning drive. He doesn’t have some eye-popping stats like the guys on this list, but he deserves the nod with just one interception in 10 games.
Also receiving the top 10 votes: Bengals QB Joe Burrow, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, Ravens RB Derrick Henry, Broncos CB Pat Surtain II, Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, 49ers QB Brock Purdy, Steelers LB TJ Watt, Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase, Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield, Rams QB Matthew Stafford, Texans QB CJ Stroud, Broncos QB Bo Nix, Eagles WR AJ Brown, Texans WR Nico Collins
Who the stock is up after 11 weeks
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals are 4-7 and have lost back-to-back games, but hardly Burrow, who averaged 392 yards passing per loss. After missing seven games last season with a wrist injury, Burrow led the league in QBR (76.2), touchdown passes (27) and yards (3,028). The last player to win the MVP award when his team missed the playoffs was OJ Simpson in 1973.
Whose stock is down after 11 weeks?
Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings: Yes, Darnold bounced back in a big way against the Titans on Saturday after throwing three interceptions and no touchdown passes against Jacksonville in Week 10, but he still cooled off after a hot start. Since October 20, he has thrown eight touchdowns to six interceptions. In the previous five games, he threw 11 touchdowns and had four picks.
How will Jackson’s 2024 campaign differ from his previous MVP seasons in 2019 and 2023?
This season is all about Jackson improving his ability and efficiency as a passer even more. He is on pace to surpass last year’s career high of 51 pass plays of at least 20 yards.
While his touchdown numbers look more like 2019, when he threw 36 touchdown passes to six interceptions, his rushing numbers are more in line with 2023. In 2019, Jackson rushed for 1,206 yards, but this season he will rush for 902. ( he had 821 last season).
