Presidential election 2024 live updates: Iowa poll upends the race after Kamala Harris’ SNL appearance

Donald Trump is up just nine points over Kamala Harris in an average of the betting markets with two days to go to the election.

His odds have tanked significantly from his peak at nearly 29 points over the vice president just a few weeks ago.

Trump is currently at 53.8 percent to Harris’ 44.8 percent.

It’s a sign that Harris is increasing her momentum going into Election Day.

A new New York Times/Siena poll also has her up in four swing states over Trump.

They are tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania as the race remains razor-thin.

According to the final New York Times/Siena poll before the election, Kamala Harris is getting a major momentum boost.

She’s ahead of Trump in the critical swing states of Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.

Trump takes the lead in one – Arizona – and they are tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Although the VP is up narrowly, within the margin of error, in many of the swing states the poll notes that her standing in the Electoral College hasn’t ‘necessarily improved.’

The race is going to come down to voter turnout in what could be the closest election in U.S. history.

‘The purpose of the rule is to avoid exactly this type of biased and partisan conduct – a licensed broadcaster using the public airwaves to exert its influence for one candidate on the eve of an election,’ Carr wrote on Twitter/X.

The Iowa pollster behind the bombshell survey that sent shockwaves through the presidential election on Saturday night has defended the results showed Kamala Harris leading in the conservative state.

Ann Selzer has built a reputation as ‘Iowa’s Polling Queen’ and the ‘best pollster in politics’ over decades of conducting the Des Moines Register polls.

But the creditability of ‘the polling Cassandra of Des Moines’ was brought into question over findings that the vice president was ahead of Trump in the heavily-Republican Hawkeye State.

Iowa hasn’t voted for a Democrat in the presidential election since Barack Obama in 2012 and was written off by the Harris campaign as an easy GOP win.

Seltzer’s poll was immediately decried as an ‘outlier’ and the Trump campaign pointed to an Emmerson Poll that shows the Republican nominee leading comfortably.

She hit back at the criticism on MSNBC and said she had evidence that backs the surprising conclusion.

‘We don’t have as much data as we might like about why this is happening’ she told The Weekend Show.

‘But our consensus from the reporters who work this beat is that the abortion ban went into effect this past summer… I think it has gotten people interested in voting.

Nearly 50 percent of Americans do not support taxpayer-funded reparations for black residents, a new DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners poll has revealed.

A raft of blue cities across the country have proposed paying money to the descendants of slaves in recent years.

By Emily Goodin, senior White House correspondent

Kamala Harris told a black church in Detroit that it was a ‘special Sunday for me’ as she campaigned in the battleground state two days before Election Day.

‘We have two days – two days – until we decide the fate of our nation,’ she told the crowd at the Detroit’s Greater Emmanuel Institutional Church of God in Christ.

She discussed the importance faith in her life.

‘Here is what feeds my spirit as I travel across our beautiful nation. From state to state, and from church to church, I see faith in action in remarkable ways. I see a nation determined to turn the page on hatred and division and chart a new way forward,’ she said.

She told the crowd they will be tested in the hours leading up to the election.

‘In these next two days, we will be tested. These days will demand everything we’ve got,’ she said.

‘But when I think about the days ahead and the God we serve, we were born for such a time as this, the road ahead won’t be easy, but in times of uncertainty, we are reminded what may endure for a night, but joy cometh in the morning.’

‘Morning is on its way,’ she concluded.

After her remarks, she joined the ministers in prayer.

Harris is spending Sunday barnstorming Michigan where polls show she and Donald Trump are tied. She is spending most of the day in Detroit, which is a Democratic stronghold and the state’s largest city, as she tries to turn out black voters.

After church she’ll visit a local restaurant in the Livernois district. She will then make a stop at a local barbershop in Pontiac.

Harris will close out her day in Michigan in East Lansing, where Michigan State University is located, as she courts young voters in the state.

From Rob Crilly, Chief U.S. Politcal Correspondent for DailyMail.com

In another universe, President Joe Biden is on the campaign trail, delivering the final message that he hopes will get him elected.

Or he is out stumping to get his vice president over the line, working his union links and blue-collar supporters in Pennsylvania.

In this one? Not so much. After blowing up Kamala Harris’ big event last week with a verbal gaffe, he was keeping a low profile on Sunday.

He didn’t leave his Delaware home untol after 11am and made the short journey to his golf club.

Journalists traveling with him haven’t even caught a glimpse of him yet today, left outside the club as the rest of the motorcade headed through the gates (above).

Instead, his wife, the first lady, is out campaigning in Pennsylvania for Harris. The president himself, it seems, isn’t needed or wanted.

Katelyn Caralle, Senior U.S. Political Reporter

Donald Trump claims his social media platform Truth Social earned $10 billion last week.

During a section of his Lititz, Pennsylvania rally on Sunday, the former president claimed he didn’t create the platform to make money – though he bragged about it bringing in billions.

‘Truth Social – and it’s been great. But lately it’s on fire,’ Trump said.

He continued to address Trump Media & Technology Group CEO Devon Nunes when he said:

‘I made $7 billion last week. What was it up? $10 Billion – no, $10 billion. So I can’t get angry and say he’s doing a bad job right? I don’t know, but I’m proud of you. But much more importantly, I didn’t do it for the money.’

From Rob Crilly, Chief U.S. Political Correspondent for DailyMail.com

Our friends at J.L. Partners have seen movement in their election model following the publication of a shock poll in Iowa conducted by Ann Selzer, which put Harris ahead by three points in what should be a deep red state.

That has had a ripple effect through the midwest in our model, shifting Michigan from TOSSUP TRUMP to TOSSUP HARRIS.

Wisconsin also sees a two-point drop for Trump, but that is not enough to change it from TOSSUP TRUMP.

However, the movement is small. So the overall result is that Trump remains the favorite to win the Electoral College. And when the simulation are run, he wins 62.4 percent of the time.

In his briefing note, J.L. Partners data scientist Callum Hunter writes:

The past 24 hours have seen a series of movements against Trump in the betting markets (movements that have not been reflected in all of the models) due to the Selzer Iowa poll. Despite this fact, things have not really moved in our model as there was a poll from Emerson released around the same time. Despite the accuracy score of Selzer things are balanced out by the Emerson poll AND the correlations between states which prevent the model from being dragged off in a huge way due to a single poll in one state. The model is more reliant on underlying patterns in similar states rather than knee-jerk reactions to single polls. While things have stalled at the headline level, the rustbelt states are still moving towards Harris and this may continue tomorrow. I will keep you updated.

Former President Bill Clinton has defended his successor George W. Bush for not giving an endorsement in the presidential election despite a push for him to back Kamala Harris.

Clinton, 78, said Bush is a ‘proud Republican’ and wouldn’t want to ‘give up’ the party he has dedicated his life to.

Bush’s daughter Barbara campaigning for Harris sparked calls for the former president to break his silence and disavow Donald Trump.

But the 78-year-old has instead chosen to remain on the sidelines when it comes to having his say on the top of the ticket.

He last endorsed John McCain in 2008 and has since avoided campaigning in his post-presidency.

In Texas he has shown support for local Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, who is running for the Senate against Senator Ted Cruz.

Clinton said Bush referred to Allred as a ‘good guy’ and congratulated him when he was first elected to Congress.

But that was behind the scenes, and Bush has since been far more tempered with any public endorsements.

‘First of all, he’s spoken up, I think, more than he’s gotten credit for, and he takes every opportunity that I’ve seen to talk about how important immigration is and how we can’t survive without it,’ Clinton told CNN of Bush on Sunday.

‘He also knows, beginning with our relationship, it’s very different when you’re out of political life, when there is no competition, no consequence,’ Clinton added.

‘And I think he believes that since he was a proud Republican all those years, it’s enough for him to make clear what he believes with all this, without giving up the party he’s been with all his life.’

In September of this year a spokesman for Bush told DailyMail.com that he had no plans to make any public endorsement.

‘He retired from presidential politics many years ago,’ they said, adding that neither Bush nor his wife Laura would reveal who they are voting for in November.

His former communications director Nicolle Wallace has also came out and told WSNBC she hopes Bush has a ‘change of heart’ and takes a stand against Trump.

She said: ‘We have a right to hope that those who have stood for freedom and celebrated those who have protected it might have a last-minute change of heart in the closing hours of this campaign.’

‘I’m hopeful they’ll move our country forward and protect women’s rights.’

It was a low key gesture, but nevertheless made her the latest person identified with the pre-Trump Republican Party to throw her support to the Democratic candidate.

The activist is no stranger to campaigning, although she keeps a low public profile.

She spoke at the Republican National Convention in 2004 and campaigned for her dad’s reelection in swing states.

By Katelyn Caralle, Senior U.S. Political Reporter

Donald Trump made sure to clarify at his Pennsylvania rally on Sunday that not all Democrats are ‘demonic.’

While he railed against his rivals, Trump had to tip-toe a bit after Democrats faced a barrage of criticism after President Joe Biden called the former president’s supporters ‘garbage.’

‘This is a group of people – large group of people, larger than people think,’ Trump said of Democrats, adding:

But it’s a very demonic party – it’s become that way. The people aren’t, the people – Democrats, regular Democrats aren’t. Most of them agree with what I’m saying. But we do need people to say it.

Katelyn Caralle, Senior U.S. Political Reporter

Donald Trump says Democratic Senators are afraid of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and claims that is why there have been so many climate initiatives in Congress since she took office in 2019.

The former president called AOC ‘not smart’ and said during his rally in Lititz, Pennsylvania on Sunday:

We have a girl – not a smart girl either. She’s not smart. She’s got a good shtick, but she’s not smart. AOC plus three.

Do you remember how this whole hoax started? She came down and she started screaming at senators that had been there for 30 years – Democrats. And they were totally afraid of her. They’re less afraid of her now, but half of them are gonzo.

Trump said global warming is a ‘hoax’ and pointed to the 50-degree weather at his rally in the swing state of Pennsylvania.

‘It’s not global warming because certain times it starts to cool, like right now.’

From Rob Crilly, Chief U.S. Political Correspondent for DailyMail.com

The Trump campaign released a memo on Sunday morning claiming two recent polls with good news for Kamala Harris were part of an effort to keep Trump supporters at home on Election Day.

A Des Moines Register/Mediacom published Saturday showed Harris leading Trump in Iowa by three points in Iowa, an extraordinary result in a dependably Republican state.

Then on Sunday morning, the New York Times revealed its final swing state poll, which showed Harris narrowly ahead in Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, and by just a single point in Georgia. Trump leads only in Arizona.

The Trump campaign hit back with its own polling data and said the New York Times was polling an electorate that was far to the left of 2020 voters.

Some in the media are choosing to amplify a mad dash to dampen and diminish voter enthusiasm. It has not worked. Our voters are like President Trump: they fight.

Donald Trump returned to attacking his nemesis California Rep. Adam Schiff as he hit the campaign trail with just two days until Election Day.

‘Guys like Adam Schifty Schiff, these are corrupt people. Watermelon head,’ he told a crowd in Lititz, Pennsylvania .

‘He’s got the smallest neck I’ve ever seen. I don’t know how the hell it can hold up that enlarged watermelon head. What an ugly guy both inside and out’.

By Katelyn Caralle, Senior U.S. Political Reporter

Donald Trump insisted that the 2024 presidential election results need to be finalized the night of Election Day on November 5.

The former president said any flex time after that date is just used by Democrats to ‘cheat.’

Speaking at a rally in Lititz, Pennsylvania on Sunday, Trump said:

I don’t know what’s going to happen, but for future elections – I won’t be even a part of it – but you ought to damn well go to paper ballots, you ought to go to voter ID and you ought to have the election over by 9 o’clock… I’m hearing now they’re going to take weeks. Can you imagine?

‘And what do you think happens during those 12 days?’ Trump questioned the crowd, to which they shouted back: ‘They cheat.’

‘These elections have to be – they have to be decided by 9 o’clock, 10 o’clock, 11 o’clock on Tuesday night,’ he insisted.

Donald Trump walked out on stage Sunday for his first rally of the day.

With just two days until the 2024 presidential election, Trump is holding three rallies in three different swing states.

He’s starting in the battleground of Pennsylvania with an event in Lititz.

As the 2024 general election season heats up, Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in a tight race that could come down to just a few thousand votes in several battleground states.

But with polls calling the race too close to call, maybe even the closest in modern history, there’s a question over whether either major party presidential hopeful will reach the necessary 270 Electoral College votes to win the November 5 election outright.

Each candidate needs to find a path to victory that inevitably winds through crucial – and currently within the polling margin of error swing states.

But even then, there is a scenario where the election results in neither candidate winning the required majority in the Electoral College and could tie 269-269.

So what then? Well, it has happened before – albeit not in 200 years!

The Harris campaign is targeting an NFL showdown between the Green Back Packers and Detroit Lions to air one of her closing ads with just two days until the presidential election.

The two minute-ad called ‘Brighter Future’ will air on FOX and CBS during the Sunday slate of football, which includes a matchup between the two teams from Wisconsin and Michigan.

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in the fight of their lives ahead what could be one of the closest presidential elections in history November 5.

Whoever wins the White House will be able to set the course of the country for a generation.

Both candidates have been aggressively campaigning across the country, but if it feels like they’re repeatedly visiting the same states over and over again, they are.

With millions of voters in all 50 states casting ballots in the November 5 presidential election a final DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners national poll shows Trump with a lead that matches the survey’s margin of error, a trend in his favor but still a statistical dead heat.

That leaves the fate of the White House to a handful of so-called battleground states where the race could go either way on November 5.

Regardless of who wins the popular vote, the next president must win the Electoral College, which has a set of electors per state who select a candidate based on state results.

By Katelyn Caralle, Senior U.S. Political Reporter

Donald Trump bragged about his policies positively impacting Iowa farmers just two days before the 2024 presidential election.

It comes after a shock poll released Saturday showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading in the reliably Republican state.

The final Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll put Harris over Trump among likely voters – 47 percent to 44 percent.

Trump wrote on Truth Social on Sunday:

No President has done more for FARMERS, and the Great State of Iowa, than Donald J. Trump. In fact, it’s not even close! All polls, except for one heavily skewed toward the Democrats by a Trump hater who called it totally wrong the last time, have me up, BY A LOT. I LOVE THE FARMERS, AND THEY LOVE ME. THE JUST OUT EMERSON POLL HAS ME UP 10 POINTS IN IOWA. THANK YOU!

In a campaign that is shattering spending records, a handful of individuals have accounted for a massive splurge.

The mega wealthy have dove into their deep pockets to drive the ad spending voters are seeing on billboards and smartphones in battleground states.

Among them are billionaires who have amassed fortunes in railroads, hedge funds, and shipping platforms.

The five top mega-donors are all backing Republicans, with Donald Trump relying on their support to try to counter the edge Kamala Harris has garnered among individual contributors.

Topping the list is Timothy Mellon, the grandson of leading financier and Pittsburgh native Andrew Mellon. He alone accounts for $172 million in campaign contributions, with $125 million going to the pro-Trump MAGA, Inc.

He also gave $25 million to American Values 2024, which backs Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who ended his independent campaign and threw his support to Trump.

The former president put him on his transition effort and said he will take on health responsibilities in a future Trump administration.

Many voters would still like another choice, accoring to an ABC New/Ipsos poll

The poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 49 percent to 46 percent nationally.

But it also shows 60 percent of voters are ‘dissatisfied’ with both candidates.

That figure is consistent for Republicans and Democrats.

Three quarters of voters believe the country is on the wrong track, according to the poll.

For all the extraordinary drama that surrounds her, whether in or out of the White House, no aspect of Melania Trump has attracted more comment and attention than her eye-wateringly expensive wardrobe.

She has literally dressed to impress, something even her critics can’t help but acknowledge.

Armed with a limitless budget and a team of specialist advisors including couturier Hervé Pierre (who designed her Inaugural gown) Melania has, at least in this regard, performed to perfection.

After the dramatic shake up at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket, Democrats are growing more confident in their ability to hold the White House and Senate and flip the House with Kamala Harris as their presidential nominee.

But two congressional districts could help decide the country’s fate not just at the top of the ticket come November but also both chambers of Congress: Pennsylvania’s eighth congressional district and Nebraska’s second congressional district.

The case for watching these two districts to know where the election is headed was first made by former New York Congressman and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Steve Israel.

He wrote in June ‘when the dust settles, the only information you will need in order to conclude who won the 2024 election will be the results of Pennsylvania’s 8th and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. For the next five months, they are the center of the political universe.’

Kamala Harris has a new ‘serious problem’ on her hands with just two days to the presidential election.

Female voters on both sides of the aisle were turned off by misogynistic comments made by top Harris campaign surrogate Mark Cuban last week saying Donald Trump does not surround himself with ‘intelligent women.’

And an ‘insulting’ new Harris-Walz ad suggesting women should ‘lie to their husbands’ about how they vote isn’t helping the Democratic nominee either.

In addition, questions remain about Harris’ husband Doug Emhoff’s ‘cheating and slapping’ scandal and her VP pick Tim Walz’s torrid romance with a Chinese woman he ‘led on for years.’

As a result, some of her female supporters could sit out this election, experts tell DailyMail.com.

Katelyn Caralle, Senior U.S. Political Reporter

School kids in Allentown, Pennsylvania will once again have their classes interrupted on Monday due to the 2024 presidential campaign.

Vice President Kamala Harris is visiting the town an hour outside of Philadelphia for one of her final campaign stops before Election Day on November 5.

The schools were also closed on October 29 when former President Donald Trump visited the PPL Center for a rally. Allentown schools are also closed Tuesday for Election Day.

The district said classes would be canceled Monday due to crowds, traffic and ‘potential disruptions that may impact the safety and security of our students and staff.’

Pennsylvania is one of the most important states to win on Tuesday to clinch a victory.

A pro-Kamala Harris billboard ad stands along the road in Allentown, Pennsylvania

Commissioner Brendan Carr, who was appointed by Donald Trump, said that Kamala Harris’ SNL cameo violates the law:

This is a clear and blatant effort to evade the FCC’s Equal Time rule.

The purpose of the rule is to avoid exactly this type of biased and partisan conduct – a licensed broadcaster using the public airwaves to exert its influence for one candidate on the eve of an election.

Unless the broadcaster offered Equal Time to other qualifying campaigns.

The Trump campaign reportedly said that SNL did not extend an invitation to Trump to appear on the program.

The Trump campaign sent around a memo Saturday night, blasting the Des Moines Register’s poll that has him behind in solidly red Iowa.

The Des Moines Register is a clear outlier poll. Emerson College, released today, far more closely reflects the state of the actual Iowa electorate and does so with far more transparency in their methodology.

The Emerson College poll has Trump up 10 points over Harris in the state.

After the dramatic shake up at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket, Democrats are growing more confident in their ability to hold the White House and Senate and flip the House with Kamala Harris as their presidential nominee.

But two congressional districts could help decide the country’s fate not just at the top of the ticket come November but also both chambers of Congress: Pennsylvania’s eighth congressional district and Nebraska’s second congressional district.

The case for watching these two districts to know where the election is headed was first made by former New York Congressman and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Steve Israel.

He wrote in June ‘when the dust settles, the only information you will need in order to conclude who won the 2024 election will be the results of Pennsylvania’s 8th and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. For the next five months, they are the center of the political universe.’

Katelyn Caralle, Senior U.S. Political Reporter

The final national NBC News poll of the 2024 presidential campaign sees Donald Trump and Kamala Harris completely neck-and-neck with just two days to go.

The survey has tracked the Democrat versus Republican presidential candidate preference for more than a year – but since Vice President Harris entered the race, the margins have slimmed to zero.

The 1,000 registered voters who were polled October 30 through November 2 are tied at 49 percent over which candidate they plan to vote for or already have. Last month the results showed the two tied at 48 percent.

The poll, which has a 3.1 percentage point margin of error, only had Harris ahead in September when she was leading Trump by 5 percent.

Ask around Sturgeon Bay, Wisconsin for the best bar in the city and most will say it is Poh’s Corner Pub downtown.

Kim Poh, 68, and her husband, George, 70, have run the place for the past 38 years. Kim’s parents owned the bar for more than a decade before her.

It’s an institution, a locals’s bar, like Sam Malone’s Cheers. There are darts, a pool table, a jukebox and cheap eats. A ‘half pounder’ burger costs $6.50. A side of Wisconsin cheese curds will run you $4.00.

‘We get about an equal number of tourists and locals in here,’ Kim tells me. ‘Most of our locals are Trump supporters.’

George agrees that the hard-working small business owners that he knows are voting for the former president. But the out-of-towners who’ve moved here from nearby Milwaukee or Chicago tend to vote Democrat, he says.

In what could be one of closest elections in U.S. history, the difference between the candidates could not be more stark.

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have laid out two visions for America that are poles apart during the unprecedented 2024 campaign for the White House.

The rivals have each painted one another as extreme. They both warn their opponent will be a disaster for America.

It means that on November 5 there is a stark choice when it comes to the economy, foreign policy, immigration, crime, abortion and taxes.

Whether they will be able to implement their wish list depends on a number of factors, including which party controls Congress.

But their grand plans are a crucial indicator in what four years of a Trump or Harris administration would look like.

DailyMail.com has put together a guide to show where the candidates stand on a number of crucial policies that matter most to American voters.

Each candidate needs to find a path to victory that inevitably winds through crucial swing states – where they’re currently within the polling margin of error.

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are tied in the final Emerson College poll before Election Day.

The national poll has both candidates on 49 percent.

One percent support a third-party candidate and one percent are undecided.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling said:

The final Emerson College poll of the national popular vote, which doesn’t account for the Electoral College, points to an incredibly close race.

The gender divide is stark, with women favoring Harris by 12 points and men supporting Trump by the same margin.

Donald Trump called himself the ‘father of fertilization’ and bragged about his vigorous campaigning schedule in one of his final pleas to voters to give him a second term.

In front of thousands of supporters in the swing state of North Carolina, Trump tried to cut his rally short at 30 minutes but was encouraged by the crowd to finish off his third rally of the day in his type long-form style.

Trump claimed to be a staunch defender of access to in vitro fertilization (IVF) as Democrats say he wants to take away the treatment because some more radical pro-life views believe destroying fertilized embryos is a form of abortion.

Angry viewers noticed how Kamala Harris’ SNL skit appeared to be eerily similar to one in which Donald Trump took part in while campaigning for president in 2015.

Harris could be seen talking to herself as she made a surprise appearance on Saturday night as she sat in front of a mirror, speaking with actress Maya Rudolph who was portraying the Democratic presidential candidate.

But viewers were quick to note how the sketch was strikingly similar to one performed nine years earlier by Trump.

Donald Trump has admitted he was ‘so disappointed’ to see Julia Roberts take part in a pro-Kamala Harris advert ahead of the election, saying she will ‘look back and cringe.’

In response, Trump said: ‘I’m so disappointed at Julia Roberts because I love… she’s going to look back at that and she’s going to cringe.’

Kamala Harris was blasted for using her ‘fake accent’ during her surprise appearance on SNL on Saturday night.

The VP has increasingly faced accusations of using a ‘fake accent’ in recent weeks, but with only days until the 2024 presidential election, she can’t afford to lose any support, especially among black and younger voters both key to any victory.

‘Kamala Harris spent three hours rehearsing for this cringe fest on SNL. Complete with the fake black accent. This is a tough watch. Good Lord,’ one poster wrote.

Kamala Harris was blasted for using her ‘fake accent’ during her surprise appearance on SNL on Saturday night.

The VP has increasingly faced accusations of using a ‘fake accent’ in recent weeks, but with only days until the 2024 presidential election, she can’t afford to lose any support, especially among black and younger voters both key to any victory.

‘Kamala Harris spent three hours rehearsing for this cringe fest on SNL. Complete with the fake black accent. This is a tough watch. Good Lord,’ one poster wrote.

Republicans are outpacing Democrats in the crucial swing state by 44,500 votes.

That’s a good sign for Trump, who needs all the momentum he can get with just two days until the election.

In a new NYT/Siena poll, Trump is trailing Kamala Harris in Nevada by three points.

Business is booming at the world’s largest wholesale market in Yiwu, China, where retailers hunt for low-cost items to fill their shelves.

The city’s international trade center is a sprawling network of 70,000 stalls spread across 12 floors.

But it is not just traders who are watching closely – political observers have their eyes trained on a phenomenon they call the ‘Yiwu Index’.

The theory goes that how well a U.S. political candidate’s replica merchandise is selling in Yiwu, the more chance they have in the upcoming election.

Notably, the ‘Yiwu Index’ was a better predictor of Donald Trump’s win in 2016 than pollsters, who were sure throughout the campaign that Hillary Clinton would be the victor.

The vice president laughed throughout her skit with Maya Rudolph on Saturday’s episode, putting on a similarly giggle-filled performance to Clinton in 2008 and 2016.

At one point, Harris even repeated a joke from Clinton’s sketch opposite Amy Poehler, as she asked Rudolph: ‘I don’t really laugh like that do I?’

Kamala Harris is seeing a last-minute surge in momentum over Donald Trump in the final days of one of the closest presidential elections in history.

The vice president was given a surprise jolt on Saturday night with a poll showing she is ahead in the reliably Republican state of Iowa, while DailyMail.com’s election forecast shows her gaining on the 78-year-old former president.