Performing Economy in Swing States — Good News for Harris

Content of the article

(Bloomberg) — Six of the seven battleground states expected to decide this year’s U.S. presidential election grew faster than the U.S. economy in the second quarter, adding new tailwinds for Vice President Kamala Harris close to a month out from the vote. .

Especially popular is the bouncingback in industrialized countries with a “blue wall” legacy. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product growth in Michigan and Wisconsin was among the 10 fastest in the nation, and Pennsylvania rebounded after contracting in the first quarter, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data released Friday.

Content of the article

Growth in the sunbelt battlegrounds of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina remained stronger than the national average. Only Nevada lagged behind the 3% gain in US GDP with a 1.8% increase.

Voters consistently singled out the economy as their top concern, with former Republican President Donald Trump leading his Democratic rivals on the issue in surveys.

Harris, however, has closed the gap on economic issues in recent polls. A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll of likely voters in seven swing states this week found that he is in a virtual tie with Trump on who voters trust more to handle the cost of everyday goods and has an all-important 11-point advantage. help the middle class.

GDP figures do not capture the most recent month, and country-level data can be volatile.

But a stronger economy in the blue-walled state has significant political potential as Democrats see it as key to retaining the White House even before Harris takes the ticket. The three countries as a group have regressed since the pandemic, growing by only a third of the rest of the US in real per capita terms between 2019 and the end of 2023, according to a Bloomberg analysis published last month.

Content of the article

Content of the article

Wisconsin had the biggest turnaround in the latest GDP data, growing at an annualized inflation rate of 4.2% in the second quarter after contracting at a 1.1% rate in the first three months of the year. Real GDP rose 4.2% in Michigan and 3.2% in Pennsylvania.

“The key state is Pennsylvania, of course,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, which is based in the state. “The big cities of Philly and Pittsburgh are benefiting from growth in health care, education, and financial services,” while the rest of the state is “hanging on.”

Although it has not yet translated into many new factory jobs, manufacturing as a contributor to GDP has been significant, along with construction, he said.

Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, where the economy is thriving during the pandemic recovery, outperformed the US in the last quarter. In Nevada, however, economic growth in the second quarter dragged down the main accommodation and food service sectors.

The economy remains the most important issue for voters in the Blomberg/Monrning Consult poll, and more than two-thirds of respondents think it is on the wrong track. Trump continues to lead Harris among voters when asked who he trusts more to handle the economy. But the vice president is chipping away at the advantage.

Content of the article

The reality for many people remains that even though inflation rates are slowing, prices for everything from housing to groceries are still rising compared to before the pandemic.

Economist Mark Vitner, founder of North Carolina-based Piedmont Crescent Capital, said swing states like Georgia and North Carolina are clearly benefiting from the Biden administration’s new investments in electric vehicles and other green energy plants.

However, Vitner cautioned that country-level GDP data is often subject to major revisions. Strong growth figures in any country often don’t translate into votes, even in election years, they add.

“People don’t put GDP in their gas tanks. They don’t buy GDP at the grocery store. And that’s where most of the economic concerns are,” Vitner said. “People who work at an EV factory in Greensboro, North Carolina, are more frustrated with higher gas prices than if they were working at a furniture factory.”

Content of the article