NFL Week 11 Betting Picks, Predictions for Week 17 November 2024

Two marquee games on the docket, with strong trends and huge audience appeal.

AFC showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) and the Bills (8-2) in Buffalo has all sorts of storylines, but we are slapping this ride in reverse after KC’s forced kicker change. For a team with seven out of nine wins by a one-score margin, we can’t put our trust-or coin-behind the shadow, temporary heir to Harrison Butker.

And so we turn our attention to another AFC slugfest, Ravens vs. Steelers, where the number tug in the opposite direction. Baltimore’s top-ranked offense is unstoppable. Pittsburgh’s tenacious D. Mike Tomlin dominates borderline Lamar Jackson (1-3 as a starter).

No, we can’t go there either. But will watch.

Instead, we spend our money elsewhere, tracking down a lot of teams that can’t get out of their own way.

Indianapolis Colts at NY Jets

No one should break the +176 (FanDuel) money line if they believe so much in the Jets’ mindset coming into Sunday’s game. Well, mathematically, NY is still hanging by a thread, but Arizona’s six-point output is all the arithmetic we need.

Let’s talk about the Colts since they decided to return to quarterback Anthony Richardson. He completed just 44 percent of his passes and tended to tire in the second half of road games (apparently).

But the Colts are better for bettors than Shane Steichen’s resume at 7-3 ATS this season and has been in every game in the fourth quarter. Recent trends show the Jets may not be strong enough to force the Colts to throw. Last week, the Cardinals rushed for 147 yards, one week after the Texans put up 187 on the ground; Patriots (112), Steelers (149) and Bills (149), also, all since mid-October.

Aaron Rodgers has done a great job keeping a team with his own accuracy issues at bay, and the Colts come away with more legitimate postseason motivation despite losing three straight.

Even if you are concerned about Jet really, really turn and set the season-high with 25 (!) points, we ride with horseshoes. Opponents had six first quarter touchdowns against the Jets.

Bet: Colts +3.5, Jonathan Taylor scores first TD, +480 (FanDuel)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions

Running away from the Lions as a two-TD favorite is stupid. Mac Jones had just moved the chains last week, and Jacksonville’s only touchdown was scored by replacement Trevor Lawrence on the ground. Lawrence is still out, and Jacksonville is out of its league, with big changes looming.

If you need an analogy for this blowout, who among the ranks of NFL coaches is more willing to throw the road in the grill than Dan Campbell?

That’s thought.

Even if you want to pick on the past two performances for the Lions – both wins, mind you – this is not a team that plays in the competition. And if anyone can get the locker room to believe that Jared Goff is coming for the second time after a five-interception outing in Houston, it’s Detroit’s Campbell.

Houston couldn’t run the ball against Detroit. But CJ Stroud found an answer that Mac Jones almost certainly wouldn’t have found against the Lions.

The Lions beat the Seahawks by 13, dropped 52 on the Titans (in a 38-point win) and outscored the Cowboys 47-9 on the road.

Bet: Lions -13.5, Jahmyr Gibbs 25+ receiving yards, +164 (FanDuel)

Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots

On the road. In the grass. The week is short.

If you take the recency multipliers and combine them with the enormous egg laid by the Rams offense last week, there is a skyscraper-sized pile of reasons to run away from the road favorite in Foxborough.

But New England gets kudos by the bushel for beating a Bears team that started two backups at offensive tackle and made only modest attempts to run the ball. We’re not saying the Rams are Super Bowl-bound, but the Patriots still start a rookie quarterback with minimal playmakers when stacked up against receivers and running backs Matthew Stafford can deploy.

Kyren Williams is the centerpiece of this game plan until the Patriots prove he can be stopped. He had 10 touchdowns from scrimmage; New England has 16 total.

Three times this season and twice in the last three weeks, Stafford has doubled in TD tosses. New England has allowed three passing TDs in its last five games.

bets: Rams -4.5, Matthew Stafford 2+ passing TDs, +110