Originally posted on ClimateREALISM
The mainstream media considered the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) hurricane season forecast released on May 23.rd, which projects significantly above the normal hurricane season is expected in the Atlantic. For example, this headline: NBC News, NOAA issues highest early forecast for upcoming hurricane season; at New York Times, 2024 Hurricane Season Expected to Be Unusually Loud, NOAA Predicts; and Huffington Post, NOAA Releases Most Aggressive Hurricane Forecast Yet Ahead of Hurricane Season. The 2024 hurricane season may not be above average, but based on similar predictions and reports in 2022, which failed to materialize, there is a good chance these predictions and headlines will be big on hype and low. in accuracy.
The NOAA press release says this:
NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center are predicting above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. season.
NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 storm totals (winds 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are predicted to be hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have 70% confidence in that range.
If the forecast comes true it will be a very busy season with the potential for devastating storms along the coast of the United States and the Caribbean.
Many reports suggest a busier than normal season as ocean heat content in the main Atlantic runs ahead of schedule this year. Storms develop due to heat from the ocean, so forecasters expect rapid development.
Current ocean heat content in the Atlantic Key Development Area for hurricanes is now running about 2.5 months ahead of schedule. this analysis by Brian McNoldy at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School, seen in Figure 1 below.
NOAA stuck to this heated development, adding in a press release:
As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed is nearing its end, NOAA scientists predict a rapid transition to La Nina conditions, which is conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina tends to reduce wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, the abundant ocean heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to develop storms.
But despite the fast and furious potential forecast for another hurricane this year, Mother Nature isn’t cooperating, until now. Philip Klotzbach, Ph.D., a hurricane specialist at the University of Colorado record expected development has stopped:
The Northern Hemisphere has yet to have its first named storm (eg, tropical storm or hurricane) in 2024. This is the first time since 1983 that the Northern Hemisphere has ended a calendar year without a named storm.
Early forecasts and media coverage have a 2022 feel,”deja vu again.” Climate Realism attention to early overhyped claims and media failures in covering the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season here, here, and here. In conclusion, we report that Despite Predictions, the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Is Not Below ‘Normal’. After nearly 4 decades of climate agenda-driven claims of worsening global climate impacts from hurricanes, NOAA’s worldwide hurricane season data for the entire 2022 tropical storm year shows that hurricanes worldwide are at their lowest level of strength in 42 years past as seen in Figure 2 below.
To say that the predictions and media coverage of the 2022 hurricane season was an epic failure is an understatement.
And yet, here we are, two years later with the same predictions and media hype all over again. In 2022, NOAA says this:
The anticipated increase in activity this hurricane season is due to several climate factors, including a persistent La Niña that will continue throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, trade winds Weaker tropical Atlantic. and the increasing West African monsoon.
Sound familiar? Only time will tell, but given their poor track record in the past, there’s a good chance that NOAA and the media will have egg on their collective faces again by the end of 2024. One thing we can say for sure is when a hurricane hits. , despite persistent claims that climate change is making them worse, the data show that there is no long-term trend to increase the frequency of hurricanes or hurricanes to become more powerful.
Anthony Watts
Anthony Watts is a senior fellow for environment and climate at the Heartland Institute. Watts has been in the weather business in front of, and behind the camera as an on-air television meteorologist since 1978, and now does a daily radio forecast. He has created a weather graphic presentation system for television, specialized weather instrumentation, as well as peer-reviewed papers together on climate issues. He operates the world’s most viewed website on climate, the award-winning website wattsupwiththat.com.
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