It’s the 2024 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby today in Arlington!
Some of the best home run hitters in baseball will take aim at Globe Life Field on Monday (Live on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of back-to-back championships is not in sight – 2023 winner Vladimir Guerrero Jr. join Ken Griffey Jr.’s elite company. Will this be Alonso’s year? Will Adolis Garcia run in front of the crowd? Or will one of the six other exciting participants take the title?
We have a one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates after analysis and takeaways.
MLB Home Run Derby field
Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (28 2024 HR)
Marcell Ozuna, Braves (26)
Jose Ramirez, Guardian (23)
Pete Alonso, Mets (19)
Teoscar Hernandez, Dodgers (19)
Adolis Garcia, Rangers (17)
Bobby Witt Jr., Royals (16)
Alec Bohm, Phillies (11)
Instant update
Who will win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Bobby Witt Jr. going back home and getting that title. Witt, a star shortstop for the Kansas City Royals, grew up in Colleyville, about 20 minutes north of Globe Life Field. He’s got surprising pop for a player of his size and the type of swing he can get in a hurry. With a new format awarding strategy, Witt can use endurance and youth to outlast a field short on name recognition but long on power. Alonso will be the favorite in the final round against Witt, but the young star will beat the Polar Bear and win the $1 million prize.
Alden Gonzalez: Remember Games 6 and 7 of last year’s ALCS and the way Adolis Garcia destroyed the Houston Astros with fans all over him? Few love the spotlight more than Garcia, and he will step up when he represents his hometown Texas Rangers in the Derby. Garcia, who was not selected as an All-Star, has not been at his best this season. Maybe playing in November has something to do with it. But this is the kind of event that can get him to leave. As one of the Rangers coaches said: “When the lights are bright, the stars shine brightly.”
Buster Olney: Alonso is a safe bet – he’s always been a safe bet, given his strength and experience, and his heart rate is probably lower than anyone else’s. Plus, he’s reunited with Dave Jauss, his batting practice pitcher from the last win, and Jauss might be the first Ball Hall of Fame ballplayer because of all the times he’s done this kind of thing over the years. This is the Derby; Jauss is Bill Shoemaker; and Alonso as Secretariat.
Jesse Rogers: I’m going with the upset pick: Marcell Ozuna. He’s been a big power hitter and I think he’ll step up on Monday night. When he first came into the league, Ozuna had a launch angle of about 10 degrees; now, it hovers in chapter 16. Swing which only has a long ball feel to that. And at that time he was not tasked with scoring as much as he would have in the Derby. The result of all this was a career high 40 home runs last season and another 26 so far this year. Take the underdog.
Jorge Castillo: Garcia will become the fourth player to win the Home Run Derby in his home ballpark and the first since Bryce Harper took over at Nationals Park in 2018. Garcia isn’t an All-Star, but he’s still hitting 17 home runs this season after clubbing. 39 in 2023. He showed he enjoyed the biggest stage during the Rangers’ World Series run last October. He will shine in the rest on Monday.
Who will have the longest race of the night, and how far?
Fit: The longest run of the season among those on the field is Witt’s 468-foot blast. Next in line is Ozuna at 448 feet. So, while Witt can’t hit 500 feet, something in the 475-foot-plus range is possible.
González: Witt is not the biggest guy, but among the eight contestants, he not only has the longest home run of the season, but also the longest homer average and the most “no-doubt” (home runs that would have .has been lost in all 30 ballparks). He is, as they say, twitchy. And, as Jeff predicted, I think we’re going to get into the 470s.
Olney: Gunnar Henderson has the kind of raw power that sets him apart, and at least once in the first round, he’ll put all that excitement and adrenaline and pure power into his swing and take the ball 475 feet. What is the old saying – strong country? That’s what Henderson did.
Rogers: My head says Witt but my gut goes with Garcia. He’ll wow the home crowd, won’t he? How about one near 500 feet? It may be boring for him to try — I’m not picking him to win — but Garcia will have Rangers fans with at least one big blast.
Castle: I’m picking GarcĂa to win this one, but I think Alonso will go ahead, giving him plenty of opportunity to start the longest home run of the night. Alonso, making his fifth consecutive Derby appearance, is the most experienced entrant in this field. He was born to crush baseballs. He clubbed one 466 feet last season. They will set the standard on Monday.
Which sluggers will be affected by the new Derby rules?
Fit: Alonso has more or less mastered his manic Derby form, winning a back-to-back contest before losing in the first round to last year’s record-setting Julio RodrĂguez. Due to the rule change, what he knew from the Derby as a five-time participant was thrown out the window. He needs to adjust to a new format and instead of playing fast, try to find a balance between speed and endurance – certainly a difficult balance to strike in the Derby.
González: Remember that the maximum is 40 pitches each round is three minutes, not 40 swings. The unheralded BP thrower has never been more important. We have seen them make an impact in previous Derbies, notably in Alonso in 2021 and Rodriguez in 2022. But the location and tempo of the pitch are now more critical, and the contestants must choose wisely. Those with BP throwers who have no previous Derby experience or are ultimately inaccurate will be at a disadvantage.
Olney: A pitcher who takes batting practice has the hardest time putting the ball on the proverbial tee. (And we don’t know who yet.) The new rules increase the importance of BP pitchers and their efficiency, and every year, we see one or two pitchers — even experienced guys — struggle to throw strikes. . Jauss was exceptional in his consistency in his first year throwing Alonso, and in his second year, he was inconsistent. The pressure on BP pitchers is more than ever.
Rogers: The indefinite bonus round will be a walk in the park for Alonso as he has competed under the old rules for years. The same goes for the lack of head-to-head competition in the first round. He and other batsmen will not be afraid of losing early with a superior performance from one competitor. After doing things the old way, Alonso can now fly in a more relaxed environment under the new rules. At least I see it.
Castle: Echoing Alden and Buster here, whoever wins this Derby will probably have the best pitcher of the night. Consistency is key in this format. Give a guy enough fat pitches to start over the wall and you give him a chance. It comes down to that. That’s why I think that Alonso can get an advantage with Jauss because of their experience together. Yes, they have to adjust to new rules, but if anyone is going to prepare for the event, it’s Alonso.
What moment will we be talking about long after this Derby is over?
Fit: The new rule that instead of 30 seconds of bonus time players can hit as many home runs as possible before reaching three out should bring some added drama to the process. It’s a nice tribute to what Derby looked like before 2015 and, in theory at least, provides a reasonable balance between the chaos that happens in an hour. The prospect of entrants coming from behind and using those three outs — if a player runs at least 425 feet in the inning, he gets an extra — keeps the contest fresh.
González: That Henderson and Witt compete in this together. Henderson is 23, Witt is 24. They have become one of the best in the sport and will compete for American League MVP in the second half of the season. MLB may be entering another era of shortstops, not unlike what Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Nomar Garciaparra experienced in the 1990s. Now it’s Henderson, Witt, Elly De La Cruz and many other young players who may develop. The 2024 Home Run Derby would be an example.
Olney: The best Derby rounds have been made by players who didn’t win the event – Lance Berkman in Houston, Josh Hamilton at Yankee Stadium, Julio Rodriguez last year. Henderson will be that guy this year — he’ll be the early bird, effectively announcing his presence with authority to all the casual fans who will learn and learn his name and Witt’s for the first time.
Rogers: OK, I’m going to party-pooper: that Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge didn’t take a bat on Saturday night. How could MLB host the Home Run Derby without at least one guy — if not two — participating? Michael Jordan doesn’t entertain us in the slam dunk contest every year, but he won it twice. (Judge has won one Derby, back in 2017). It just doesn’t make sense that the top two home run hitters on the break aren’t on. If Alonso can do it every year, so can those two. Let’s see the big man again in 2025.
Castle: Garcia put on a show in front of the crowd to beat Alonso in the final. Winning the Derby at home makes for an unforgettable moment. We saw it with Harper in 2018 and Todd Frazier in 2015. The atmosphere was electric. Emotions surface. Garcia will turn Globe Life Field up.
