by Chris Morrison
Some of the poorest and most vulnerable members of society are missing out on millions of pounds in cold weather payments in England and Wales because of their reliance on data from faulty Met Office temperature measuring stations. In 2022-23, cold weather payments of £130 million were made to around five million households, but it is possible that the annual figure would be higher if more accurate local temperature measurements were used.
Cold weather payments are automatically paid to those with a range of benefits which are tested and triggered by a seven-day average temperature below 0oC. (A different system is used in Scotland.) Temperature measurements are taken from 63 Met Office stations in England and Wales, but more than half of these sites have admitted ‘uncertainties’ of between 2°C and 5°C. The payment in the countryside around Sheffield depends on the readings from the city site where the station is rated Class 5 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) with an error of 5 ° C. higher than those found in the surrounding Peak District.
Estimates of the city’s heat corruption vary, with the EU weather service Copernicus suggesting it could cause temperature measurements “up to 10oC is higher than in rural areas”. A new scientific paper written by 37 scientists from 18 countries found that urban heat is responsible for around 40% of the warming recorded since 1850. In a fascinating and detailed study, they found that the rural/urban temperature mix shows a long-term warming trend. of 0.89 ° C per century, while the collection of only rural areas produces an increase of only 0.55 ° C per century.
The WMO, in which the Met Office plays an important role, rates temperature stations in five classes. Grades 1 and 2 are considered pure and free of uncertainty. Class 3 has a margin of error of +/- 1°C, while junk class 4 has +/- 2°C and super junk class 5 is set at +/- 5°C. As Paul Homewood points out, these negative and positive errors do not tend to cancel each other out, as they do in other fields because of their random nature. “By recording the temperature,” he said, “a bad situation almost always increases the base temperature.”
The Met Office scores very badly in front of the rating, with Everyday skeptics found through the new freedom of information requests that almost eight out of 10 stations are in class 4 and 5. In addition, the Met Office uses its own internal classification. But this seems to be more forgiving of near-heat corruption, with only 27 out of 380 sites being called “unsatisfactory”.
The cold weather payment, not to be confused with the winter fuel allowance paid to pensioners which has been introduced by the new Labor government, gives £25 for cold weather periods to those deemed financially or physically vulnerable. Extra consideration is given to families with children under the age of five. During 2022-23, some regions make three payments from November to March. But the luck of the draw seems to play in these disbursements. The four weather stations used to record low temperatures in England and Wales were so bad that even the Met Office thought they were ‘not satisfied’. These include Hawarden Airport, home of Wales’ national temperature ‘record’, Little Rissington, Redesdale and Pembrey Sands.
The payment system can be used by providing a postcode from the surrounding area to a specific site. Heathrow Airport has the largest number of postcodes attached to it and appears to extend beyond most of London. Heathrow is a Class 3 site with 1°C uncertainty, but this is considered generous by many as it is one of the busiest airports in the world. Not much frost can be determined on many nights of the year with temperatures raised by the release of heat accumulated during the day by miles of concrete and asphalt. In most cities, nighttime temperatures at airports may be higher than in undamaged areas. Copernicus notes, for example, that cities such as London and Paris, “typically” record temperatures around 4 °C higher than rural environments.
Of course, it is almost certain that the temperature record in cities and airports will reduce the number of seven-day average temperatures of 0 ° C in a wider area. If so, many of the poorest and most vulnerable in rural locations will lose this financial assistance.
We are indebted to citizen reporter Ray Sanders for bringing attention to this avoidable scandal. Commenting on the many trigger sites found in areas affected by the heat of the city, he noted: “The Met Office must be aware of this problem, it must not be naive or simply not thinking about it – just drawing a few lines on the map. Either way, take responsibility it should be on him as he is supposed to be an expert in the field and the DWP (Department for Work and Pensions) is only asking for advice.
As we have seen in many past articles, the Met Office is at the forefront of promoting the Net Zero fantasy. But it could be argued that the acquisition of supercomputers and the use of climate models has been the cost of investing in a robust network of stations capable of providing accurate measurements of natural air temperatures. The basics – the recognizable day job – have not been given the treatment they need. The network is full of unsuitable sites such as airports, solar farms, car parks and electricity sub-stations. Even worse, no thought is given when it comes to the placement of new sites, which are often located in class 4 and 5. Garbage in the sense of garbage out, regardless of how politically convenient it is for mainstream-driven activists. Producing readings that are supposed to measure temperatures down to a hundred degrees Celsius, as the Met Office has done with this flawed data, is just a scientific joke.
Until recently, the obvious problem with the Met Office’s temperature measurement capabilities had been ignored. To discuss these issues runs the risk of opening a pandora’s box as it would expose the data supporting Net Zero to further scrutiny. It will be interesting to see if this position has any suggestion that these figures can reduce the poor and vulnerable members of society to collect the necessary cold weather payments.
Chris Morrison is Everyday skepticsEnvironment Editor.
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