Mass protests are expected in Georgia after Georgian Dream claims victory

Mass protests are expected in the Georgian capital Tbilisi on Friday after the decision, the Russian-friendly party Georgian Dream claimed victory in the contentious parliamentary elections this weekend.

The increasingly authoritarian party that has been in power for the past 12 years claimed another election win after Saturday’s vote, but the pro-Western president and opposition parties refused to accept the results, saying the vote was not free and unfair.

The country’s pro-Western president Salome Zurabishvili called the public to protest in the center of Tbilisi on Friday evening, saying the opposition will not tolerate “election fraud” and that “no one can take away Georgia’s European future,” according to comments reported by the Interpress Georgian news agency.

Georgia’s central election commission said on its website Monday that Georgia Dream had won 53.9% of the vote with 99% of the state’s electoral districts counted. Georgia has a vibrant but fragmented opposition movement, with the four largest opposition coalitions each garnering around 8-11% of the vote.

Voter polls during the election reflected conflicting views on how the election was conducted as pro-government and pro-opposition TV networks broadcast exit polls that contradicted the early results of the election.

The election is considered an important moment for the former Soviet republic, and perhaps the most important vote since independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, with the vote seen as a choice to remain in Russia’s orbit, or chase it. the previously mentioned ambition to join the European Union (EU) and NATO.

While Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze and Georgian Dream billionaire founder Bidzina Ivanishvili declared the results as a demonstration of public support for the party’s policies and vision for Georgia, opposition parties were quick to blame and deny the election results, saying election fraud was widespread.

“We do not accept the results of these stolen elections,” said Tina Bokuchava, leader of Georgia’s main opposition party, the United National Movement, at a press conference on Saturday. The party led a coalition called Gerakan Persatuan-Nasional which got 10.1% of the vote.

Bokuchava accused Georgian Dream founder Bidzina Ivanishvili of stealing the “European future” of Georgians as he called on the opposition to unite to restore Georgia’s “European future”.

“We do not accept the results of stolen elections and we will not recognize these stolen results… We will fight as before to return the future of Europe and we will not accept the results of stolen elections,” Interpress said. reported the news agency.

Georgian President Zourabichvili, a staunch critic of the ruling Georgian Dream party, called on citizens to stage mass protests on Monday evening, describing the vote as a “special Russian operation.”

“This is a total fraud, a total taking of your vote,” Zourabichvili told reporters, flanked by Georgian opposition party leaders, in comments reported by Reuters. He called on Georgians to protest in Tbilisi, “to announce to the world that we do not recognize the election.”

Timothy Ash, an emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said the opposition party, which polls best in big cities, “could get a lot on the streets” to protest. He warned of the potential for further violence between protesters and security forces, similar to violent encounters earlier this year following controversial government policies.

“I expect the ruling Georgia Dream regime to deploy a large number of security forces and use maximum pressure to deal with the protesters,” Ash said in an emailed comment, adding that he “will not rule out the deployment of security forces from Russia to support (the founder of Georgia Dream ) Ivanishvili,” he said, describing the election as “the latest point of stress between Russia and the West.”

The outcome of the election is likely to cause confusion in Europe and the US due to a geopolitical tussle with Russia over its influence in the former Soviet landscape. Georgia’s opposition parties have accused Russia of playing a key role in vote-rigging ahead of the election, but Moscow has vehemently denied any wrongdoing.

Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov again said that allegations of election meddling are “absolutely baseless.”

“We categorically deny the allegations,” Peskov told reporters on Monday, according to comments reported by the TASS news agency and translated by Google. “He has become a standard for many countries, and at the very least, he immediately accused Russia of meddling. No, that is not true, there was no interference, and the accusation is completely meaningless,” he said.

Western officials noted that the election had taken place against a backdrop of increasing political polarization, highly divisive campaign rhetoric and widespread reports of voter pressure, but there was also recognition that Georgia’s election day was, in general, orderly. .

The International Election Observation Mission led by the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) noted on Sunday that international observers generally reported that Georgia’s elections were “marred by an uneven field, pressure and tension, but voters were offered a wide range of options .” on the ballot and candidates can generally campaign freely.

The European Commission also said in a statement that “the day of the election was generally well organized and conducted in an orderly manner” but that the vote had taken place in “a tense environment, with frequent compromises in the secrecy of the vote and some procedural inconsistencies, as well as reports of intimidation and pressure on voters who instilled public confidence in the process.”

In a separate statement Monday morning, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement on Sunday that the pre-election environment was “marked by misuse of public resources, vote buying, and voter intimidation, all of which lead to an uneven playing field and undermine public trust.” and international on the possibility of a just outcome.”

Blinken said that the US joins calls from international and local observers for a full investigation of “all reports of election-related violations” and calls on Georgia’s leaders “to respect the rule of law, repeal laws that undermine fundamental freedoms, and address shortcomings in the country’s process. joint election.”

Blinken concluded his statement by reminding Tbilisi that Georgia’s European and Euro-Atlantic integration goals “require the government to respect the rights of members of civil society and the fundamental freedoms of all Georgians.”

How committed Georgia remains to pro-Western integration is uncertain.

Prime Minister Kobakhidze said on Monday that European integration remains a key foreign policy priority for the government, with a 2030 target to join the bloc. However, the ruling party’s domestic and foreign policy has become increasingly authoritarian in recent years, rolling back its commitment to strengthening democratic values ​​in line with EU membership aspirations.

As well as restoring media freedom and LGBT rights, Georgian Dream’s introduction this summer of a Russian-style “foreign agent” law aimed at curbing foreign influence is seen as a further shift towards authoritarian, Kremlin-style rule and mass protests. they were met with a harsh police response.

The party initially supported Georgia’s pro-Western trajectory but has since grown colder on that front and the anti-democratic policies pursued by the party have met with concern in Brussels, with EU accession talks frozen earlier this year.

Georgian Dream campaigned on an anti-war platform, claiming a vote for the pro-Western opposition party would lead Georgia down the path to direct conflict with Russia, as in Ukraine.