From CFACT
By David Wojick
The State of Maine just got a very strange offshore wind lease from the Feds. They call it a research lease as opposed to a commercial development lease. It has some mysterious features that are worth pondering.
There might be a billion dollar trick here. We consider that in the end, after briefly explaining the mystery.
To begin with, the lease for 144 MW “research array” turbine, as it is called. Yes, 144 MW is huge for research. The South Fork Wind site (fixed, not floating) is already operating as a 12-turbine, 132 MW commercial facility, so this array will be larger than commercial.
It can cost $3 billion-plus in factory costs to make a dozen or more floaters. Different websites suggest varying turbine sizes from 10 to 12 MW. Of course, if this is really research, they can use different sizes, but the total is still huge.
Why is the first big mystery, and the official explanation is far too vague to justify. He usually talks about research on efficiency, supply chain, and also work.
He also said that the research results will inform the development of commercial floating wind, which is pegged at 15,000 MW in the Gulf of Maine. But this seems unlikely as research takes time.
Commercial leases for the Gulf will be sold in the next few months (The Biden-Harris people want to get a large lease before the election, so that Trump wins.) the research array should go through the same process. is a commercial site.
The development of the commercial site and the development of the research array started at the same time and went through the same steps. So it’s hard to see how a commercial site could benefit from the research, especially since the research would slow down the development of the array. Research conducted after the array is up and running will accelerate once the commercial facility is up and running. Thus, who will benefit from this multi-billion dollar research is the second mystery.
Who is paying those billions seems clear, as the developer is expected to negotiate a power purchase agreement (PPA) with one or more large Maine utilities. The developer appears to be Diamond Offshore Wind, owned by Mitsubishi Corporation. He has been actively involved in the patented floating wind technology at the University of Maine.
Here, things get bleak. First, if the PPA is supposed to pay for the array, plus profit, then this is a commercial development. Second, research is expensive and unpredictable, so how can PPA afford it?
There is no mention of separately funded research from the array, which would be complicated, to say the least. For that matter, who decides what research to do when it happens? Diamond, University, or Maine State? It looks like Diamond works for Maine, but he has to make money in the deal, which makes it very strange.
All that said, there is another possibility. This project is not about research, but about building a floater factory and demonstrating the University’s technology.
There is a monster wild card in the floating wind game, and that is the factory. Downwind remains very easy on land. All that is needed is a good dock, a large crane, and a place to sit the components until they are taken to the site and installed. There are only a few simple components – monopile, tower, turbine, and blades. It’s all made elsewhere.
Wind floats are created from the beginning onshore and then pulled all the way to the offshore site. The Union’s patented technology uses concrete floaters that can weigh up to 15,000 tons or more and are complex structures. The construction of the floaters factory will be a big project.
This fact of floating wind is rarely mentioned, and when it is, the language is usually deceptive. The industry talks about “ports,” not factories, and Maine’s floater factories are called ports. Read my password. Note that the factory will be operated by Diamond.
So what can happen. As part of the “research” Maine built a floater factory and enough floaters to demonstrate that the Uni- patented technology could be used. A commercial Gulf wind developer of 15,000 MW must choose technologies for different sites. If he chooses another technology, out of more than a hundred candidates, he will have to build a factory to make it.
Having a Uni-tech factory in place is a strong incentive to use the technology. We’re talking about $100 billion in floaters or more. In this scenario, Diamond makes a lot of money, and so does the University of Maine and Maine State. So are all suppliers and workers. Whether this is all legal is a question as it demonstrates patented floater technology not research.
Mind you, I’m not claiming that this is the case, but it certainly makes sense from the array of research that suggests this. The main obstacle is that Uni-technology has never been built on a scale of 10-12 MW and may not be feasible. Also, the factory design I’ve seen doesn’t work, but that’s a separate issue.
Watching this two hundred billion dollar floater game is going to be very interesting.
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