Voters queue up at a polling station in Shopian. (File photo/News18)
J&K exit poll results: Here’s what’s in store for union territories where assembly elections are being held for the first time since 2014
With voting ending at 6 pm on Saturday for the Haryana Assembly elections, the exit poll predictions for the state as well as Jammu & Kashmir will be announced. The three-phase polling for 90 seats in Jammu & Kashmir ended on October 1, marking the first assembly polls in the union territory since 2014.
J&K registered a voting percentage of 63.45 percent, higher than the number recorded in the April-June Lok Sabha elections.
Dainik Bhaskar poll
According to exit polls from Dainik Bhaskar, the National Conference-Congress alliance could win 35-40 seats.
BJP may have a very good 20-25 seats. With 12-16 seats, independent candidates can surpass PDP, which can get 4-7 seats.
Gulistan exit poll
Gulistan exit polls predict a closer contest, with 31-36 seats for the NC-Congress combine and an astonishing 28-30 for the BJP.
It also shows the role of ‘kingmaker’ for independent candidates who can have 19-23 seats and the left PDP with 5-7.
C-Voter Poll
The survey predicts 30-48 seats for the NC-Congress coalition, with the BJP getting 27-32.
PDP may have 6-12 seats, on par with independents who may get 6-11 seats.
Pulsa Rakyat Poll
A survey by People’s Pulse showed that the NC-Congress combine could win with 46-50 seats, with the BJP getting 23-27.
PDP can get 7-11 seats and independents 6-10.
What politicians say
Former CM Omar Abdullah ruled out polls for the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections and said they would wait for October 8, when the results would be revealed. “I am surprised by the channels that disturb the polls, especially after the failure of the recent general elections. I ignore all the noises on the channels, social media, WhatsApp etc because only the important numbers will be revealed on October 8. The rest is just a pass time,” he wrote in the post on social media site X.
First assembly election since 2014
This is the first election to be held in the union territory since the abrogation of Article 370. High-ranking leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, Lok Sabha opposition leader Rahul Gandhi, and former J&K chief ministers Farooq Abdullah, Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti, conducted an extensive campaign for several weeks.
The National Conference (NC) and the Congress have formed an alliance for the election, while the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are among the other main contenders apart from some strong independent candidates.
What happened in 2014
During the 2014 Assembly elections, polls like C-Voter predicted that the BJP would win between 27 and 33 seats, with the Congress getting 4 to 10 seats, the National Conference (NC) getting 8 to 14 seats, and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) projected to win 32 up to 38 seats.
In the end, PDP emerged as the largest party with 28 seats, while BJP won 25, NC got 15, and Congress finished with 12 seats.
What happened in 2008
In 2008, elections were held over seven days in November and December. The previous government, a coalition between the Jammu and Kashmir People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the Congress, collapsed after the PDP withdrew its support.
After the election, the National Conference of Jammu and Kashmir (NC) formed a coalition with the Congress, which made Omar Abdullah the youngest minister in the state at the age of 38.
That year, exit polls showed that the National Conference was expected to win a majority of seats in the Valley, while the Congress was expected to secure a majority in the Jammu region.
