For two weeks, Georgia and Moldova, two countries of the former Soviet Union, went to the polls in what was seen as a contest between Russia and the West. With Moldova scheduled to hold a run-off on November 3, Georgia’s election results have sparked protests, claims of Russian interference and accusations of voter fraud, and have been contested.
When the citizens of the Caucasus voted on October 26, pollsters had predicted the downfall of the Georgian Dream (GD) party. Defying expectations, the country’s election authorities declared victory for the pro-Moscow party, citing 54% of the vote.
Despite street protests, and the US, EU and NATO coming together to condemn the result, the electoral body refused to budge. In addition, it was not surprising that the statement of the pro-European President Salome Zurabishvili declared the result illegitimate and stated the claim of a ‘special Russian operation’. The poll body said a partial recount at 12% polling stations involving 14% of the votes did not show any significant deviations. “The final record was only slightly changed in 9% of the polling stations that were told,” he said.
Opposition parties cited Edison Research and HarrisX, two US-based polling companies, whose forecasts put Georgian Dream’s vote share below 45%. HarrisX called the end result a ‘statistical impossibility’ when Edison manipulated the sound.
Compounding the further opposition cases are the arrests of two people by the Ministry of the Interior for the content of ballot papers, and 47 criminal cases of electoral violations.
From the outset, this may seem like enough reason to suspect wrongdoing by Dream Georgia. However, western officials have stopped short of declaring the election rigged or calling for a boycott of the results. Russia, meanwhile, asked to respect the will of the Georgian people.
Whether Russia interfered in the election will only be revealed over time. However, after gaining independence in 1991 and the five-day war in 2008 that claimed 20% of its territory, Georgia’s history and geography have been intertwined with its larger neighbors. With Ukraine and its developments since 2014 becoming a textbook, Dream Georgia may realize that the country’s future is also tied to Russia and begin to align its policies to avoid antagonizing the Eurasian giant.
Founded in 2012 by businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgian Dream won that year’s elections by forming a coalition with an eclectic group of pro-Western and anti-NATO liberal nationalist parties. It has retained power ever since and even ran into 2020 without the support of any other party.
Before the election, opinion polls had shown that in a country of 3.7 billion people, citizens, especially urban youth, were pursuing their ambition to join the EU. But for those in the countryside and haunted by the horrors of war, peace is the aspirational quotient.
Capitalizing on that fear, Georgian Dream created an election campaign, putting up billboards comparing the horrors of Ukraine’s war against the stability offered by the government. Conspiracy theories about the ‘Global War Party’ have also started doing the rounds.
After the publication of the results, a report by Edison Research said that “deviations from the expected results are most pronounced in certain polling locations in rural areas” while a Reuters report stated that Georgian Dream attracted 90% of votes in rural areas.
Starting with its refusal to impose sanctions on Russia, the Georgian Dream carefully pulled the country away from the European Union into Russia’s orbit. Two new laws – a foreign influence law modeled after the Russian bill and an anti-LGBTQI+ law – blocked Georgia’s path to the EU, which held back its candidacy citing the party’s authoritarian tendencies.
The Georgian Dream, in a desperate attempt to steer away from the war, is at loggerheads with part of the country’s society which desires a pro-Western future.
Published – November 03, 2024 01:54 IST
