Nogales, Arizona – The decline in illegal crossings at the US-Mexico border continued in October, according to Customs and Border Protection figures obtained by CBS News. But officials are worried that it can be upended by presidential election on Tuesday.
Border Patrol agents recorded nearly 57,000 migrant arrivals between legal entry points along the US southern border in October, internal federal statistics show. That goes up a bit from 54,000 in Septemberand very similar to the 58,000 and 56,000 tallied in August and July, respectively.
The last time monthly apprehensions were lower than the level seen in the previous four months was four years ago, in September 2020, when the Border Patrol apprehended fewer than 55,000 migrants at the US-Mexico border, according to historical CBP data.
The CBP figures do not include those processed at legal border entry points, where the Biden administration has admitted more than 1,000 migrants a day through an appointment system powered by a US government phone app. known as CBP One.
Jose Luis Gonzalez/REUTERS
After a record 250,000 in December 2023, illegal crossings at the southern border fell earlier this year, largely due to Mexico’s aggressive efforts to stop migrants from entering the US. They fell again after President Biden called for sweeping presidential powers to rapidly limit asylum in early June, falling sharply later that month and in early July. Since then, the migrant crossing has become a plateau.
While illegal crossings remain low, some US officials worry that the presidential election could upset the fragile balance achieved on the southern border in recent months. Three US officials said there could be a spike in illegal crossings if former President Donald Trump won the election, as migrants tried to enter the US before he took office in January.
“I can definitely see an increase, either a pre-inauguration increase or a continuous increase after the election,” said one US official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the press.
While Vice President Kamala Harris has promised to maintain and strengthen Mr. Biden’s asylum ban, Trump has promised to close the entire southern border, including by ending the CBP One application and other programs that allow migrants to enter the US legally. He also promised to restore hardline immigration policies, like the Remain-in-Mexico program, and roll them out largest deportation operation in American history.
CBP officials said the agency “remains vigilant to constantly changing patterns of migration — including the operations of transnational criminal organizations and other bad actors that facilitate human smuggling — and adjusts operations accordingly.”
During his first three years in office, the Biden administration struggled with an unprecedented migration crisis along the southern border, fueled in part by the arrival of migrants from crisis-stricken countries like Venezuela, where the US cannot send deportations. This created a scene of chaos and coincided with public concerns about border security.
It also marked a dramatic policy pivot by the Biden administration, which entered office promising to “rebuild” the US asylum system. But Mr. Biden’s June asylum crackdown hinges on the same authority the Trump administration used to limit legal and illegal immigration, and strip most migrants from U.S. protection. Those using the CBP One application are exempt.
Adam Isacson, a migration policy analyst at the Washington Office on Latin America, a research and advocacy group, said he expects migration flows to remain the same if Harris wins, as he has pledged to continue Biden’s policies. But he predicted a “huge jump” in border crossings if Trump is elected, especially those waiting in Mexico for the appointment of CBP One.
“The message, from the smugglers and the message from the migrants to each other, will be ‘arrive now. There is a hard deadline,'” Isacson said, referring to Inauguration Day on January 20, 2025.
Camilo Montoya-Galvez
