South Africa is headed for a big change.
Exactly what that change will look like, and whether it will alleviate much of the hardship South Africans face, remains the million dollar question.
The African National Congress, or ANC – which has ruled with an electoral majority since South Africa’s democracy began in 1994 – won only about 40 percent of the vote in last week’s election. The poor results mean that they are now in talks with rival parties to become partners in forming a government.
“In desperation, I wonder what the options will be,” said Bhekindlela Cebekhulu, 40, a theater performer in Soweto.
Will South Africa have a white president soon, or maybe the party promoting socialism will seize ownership of his house, asked Mr. Cebekhulu, who said he voted for the ANC after standing in line for more than an hour. Above all, he said, he was worried about former President Jacob Zuma’s threat to change the Constitution.
The country’s highest legislative body, the National Assembly, must meet in two weeks after the official announcement on Sunday of the election results and choose the president.
Officials with the African National Congress say they want their leader, President Cyril Ramaphosa, to continue for a second term. Mr Ramaphosa’s fate probably depends on the negotiations.
South Africa appears to be on two paths.
The election results could jolt the African National Congress, and whoever enters the national government, to more aggressively tackle the poverty, unemployment, crime and inequality that plagues the country – to avoid losing support. Alternatively, political polarization and infighting can run deep, meaning that nothing is done to solve problems.
The new government should at least produce “steps in the right direction,” said Hlengiwe Ndlovu, a lecturer in governance at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg. But if there is political dysfunction, he added, the country can “degenerate into chaos, into violence, into collapse.”
These are the key leaders who define the future of South Africa, and their influence.
Cyril Ramaphosa and the African National Congress
The biggest question for Mr Ramaphosa, 71, and his party is which arrangement they prefer. All of them carry risks.
He could join the Democratic Alliance. But that can isolate some core supporters in Black cities and rural communities because the Democratic Alliance has been staunchly opposed to policies that give options to blacks in employment and ownership.
Another option is for the African National Congress to reunite with Mr Zuma, who used to lead the party but helped form a new party that is fighting former allies in this election. But reinstating Mr Zuma could undermine the ANC’s stance against the corruption that has been endemic for years. Mr Zuma, Mr Ramaphosa’s arch-rival, his former deputy, was forced to resign in 2018 amid corruption allegations.
The party also reached out to another former member, Julius Malema, who was a fiery youth leader before expelling him. Mr. Malema started the Economic Freedom Fighters, an opposition party, ten years ago. Although Mr Malema’s socialist stance is embraced by some in the African National Congress, it could push the party in an undesirable direction.
There is a possibility of only governing as a minority government. That means the ANC will negotiate with other parties on an issue-by-issue basis. Some have also suggested forming a “government of national unity” in which all parties in Parliament are brought into the fold.
All options are open, Fikile Mbalula, the party’s general secretary, said on Sunday. But will not be forced into a bad arrangement, he said: “We talk, but not beg.”
John Steenhuisen and the Democratic Alliance
The Democratic Alliance has been one of the ANC’s harshest critics, dishing out personal insults to its members and taking it to court over some of the laws it has passed.
Led by Mr Steenhuisen, 48, who is white, the party abandoned a more diverse leadership as it lost the white conservative vote. It leaned on some issues that are championed by some on the right – publishing a news release that lamented, without evidence, a “clear increase” in the murder of farmers and advocacy for the continued use of the Afrikaans language at the University of Stellenbosch.
However, in some ways, a Democratic Alliance coalition with the ANC would make sense. The party won nearly 22 percent of the vote, making it the second largest party. The current ANC leadership generally advocates the same economic-centric approach as the Democratic Alliance. Big business will likely welcome this coalition. Analysts say that this partnership is likely to protect and strengthen state institutions. And the Democratic Alliance has a good track record of functional governance in the Western Cape, the fourth-largest province, and could be a check on government corruption, analysts say.
The party may also be concerned with policies to eliminate racial disparities left over from apartheid, and with regard to foreign policy. The Democratic Alliance supports Western allies. The African National Congress has emphasized the importance of the West but also promoted a strong partnership with China, Russia and Iran.
Tony Leon, a former leader of the Democratic Alliance who was part of the party’s leadership coalition negotiating team, said voters would bypass their reservations with the ANC if they believed a more functional government would result. They also want Mr Zuma and Mr Malema’s party out of power because of the left-wing economic policies they are promoting.
“I can absolutely guarantee that 80 per cent, maybe more, of DA voters will say, ‘Make some sensible arrangement with the ANC,'” he said.
The deal could mean reaching a compromise on an important policy for the ANC. One of the Democratic Alliance’s critical priorities is to end “cadre deployment,” the policy of using party members in key positions despite their lack of qualifications. The Democratic Alliance has also pledged to eliminate affirmative action “because it only increases the small connected elite,” according to its manifesto.
Jacob Zuma and MK
Mr Zuma’s umKhonto weSizwe party, known as MK, was formed just six months ago and became the most surprising spoiler of the election. It finished third, winning nearly 15 percent of the national vote, the most for a first party.
MK espouses a rigid platform: Take all land without loss to bring it under state control; abolish the present Constitution; establish a house in Parliament for the leaders of traditional ethnic groups; and roll back the renewable energy transition in favor of coal and nuclear power.
But many analysts say Mr Zuma, 82, appears less interested in policy and more interested in punishing Mr Ramaphosa and his party. Although Mr Zuma leads the MK, he was recently disqualified from serving in Parliament due to a criminal conviction for failing to testify before a corruption inquiry – a charge Mr Ramaphosa’s government claims is politically motivated.
Some political analysts and rival politicians say Mr Zuma also wants access to state power so that some of his legal problems can go away. He faces corruption charges stemming from an arms deal when he was vice president some two decades ago.
MK officials have demanded that Mr Ramaphosa step down as a condition for any coalition, a demand that the African National Congress has so far followed.
Analysts say the main concern is that if the two parties merge, it will essentially return to the factionalism and corruption that has made the ANC ineffective in running the government.
Voters “are looking for better operations, they are looking for better performance in terms of current policies,” said Ebrahim Fakir, an election analyst with the Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa.
Julius Malema and the Economic Freedom Fighters
Mr. Malema has in some ways weakened his rhetoric but is no less courageous in his demands. Last week, he defined what he would demand from his coalition partners: take land without compensation for six months; create a state-owned bank and cancel student loans within 12 months; free water and electricity for all welfare beneficiaries; and partners who “will not be puppets or representatives of the Western imperialist agenda.”
But the 43-year-old leader has lost influence as his party shows disappointment in the polls. That support fell by about a percentage point, to about 9.5 percent, from the last election in 2019.
Still, as a former member of the ANC, he has allies in the organisation. And his brand of politics has attracted factions within the party who believe the current leadership is not pushing aggressively enough to reverse the economic disparity that plagues South Africans.
While investors were initially surprised by the partnership between the ANC and the Economic Freedom Fighters because of Mr Malema’s leftist stance, those concerns were overblown, Mr Fakir said. This alliance will not lead to the more drastic changes Mr Malema wants, Mr Fakir said.
However, there may be an “intensification of the current welfare state,” he said. The parties, he said, are expected to negotiate something similar to the Reconstruction and Development Program. It was a public expenditure program adopted at the end of apartheid that was “a rather radical Marshall Plan,” Mr Fakir said.
