By Claire Wilde
Will an exodus of private school students “besiege” the state sector when VAT is added to school fees in January?
FactCheck takes a look.
What are the claims of private schools?
It’s the last school term before one of the most talked-about new government promises – VAT on private school fees will be charged in England from January.
Many independent schools argue it will lead to an exodus of students from private settings, upending an already saturated state sector.
Do state schools have rooms?
FactCheck found most parts of England are over capacity in state schools.
A study by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, cited by the government, showed private schools could lose between 4 percent and 7 percent of students in the coming years due to the addition of VAT to fees.
At secondary level, where the pressure is most felt, an exclusive analysis of Department for Education data found that 144 of England’s 152 council areas will have enough places to accommodate 7 per cent of local private school pupils by 2025/26. school year.
Eight will not have this reserve: Coventry, Manchester, Stoke-on-Trent, Telford & Wrekin, Rutland, Kingston Upon Thames, Salford and Richmond Upon Thames.
The independent sector says private schools could lose more students – possibly as much as 25 percent – in the coming years.
FactCheck analysis shows that 136 council areas can still accommodate 25 per cent of local private secondary school pupils. 16 does not have a reserve board level. These are the eight listed above, plus Gateshead, Wokingham, Harrow, Bristol, Kensington & Chelsea, Westminster, West Sussex and Surrey.
The City of London was excluded from the analysis due to the low number of houses and the absence of state secondary schools.
What is the picture around the UK?
In Wales and Northern Ireland, all local government areas can accommodate 25 per cent of local private secondary school pupils, with analysis based on figures from 2022/23, FactCheck found.
In Scotland, all local government areas can accommodate 25 per cent of local private school pupils, with the analysis based on the 2022/23 academic year. However, our analysis looked at primary and secondary places together and could not examine the picture of secondary schools specifically.
It is worth saying, this number shows the place of the state school as a whole in the area of the council and it can vary at an even more local level or by year group.
What is the council called?
Some of the councils said they were confident they would not be oversubscribed.
Manchester City Council said that while there was “maybe one or two local pressures”, they “didn’t expect a group of students of different ages to suddenly want a local school place”.
Rutland County Council says many local private school students are boarders whose families do not live locally.
Other authorities create more space.
Wokingham Council said it is “funding an expansion program at secondary schools which will add almost 1,000 places over the next four years”.
Bristol City Council said it had “recently seen a number of new schools opening in the area”.
A minority is concerned that the policy could lead to oversubscribed state schools.
Cllr Catherine Faulks, of Kensington & Chelsea council, said: “While we know that those committed to sending their children to private schools will not suddenly change their minds, the rise in VAT puts excellent state schools and academies at risk of being oversubscribed, many very. children from less affluent backgrounds.”
Meanwhile, West Sussex County Council said it is “not yet clear” what the impact of the policy will be.
‘Concern about the right space in the right place’
The Council of Independent Schools represents most private schools.
Chief executive Julie Robinson said: “While there is general capacity for pupils, there are still concerns about the right places in suitable places for children being moved out of school by the education levy.
“We’ve heard stories of families having problems with this, especially because of the hasty implementation of the January policy.”
Channel 4 News spoke to one school which has seen pupil numbers drop by 8 per cent this September, compared to last year.
Christine Cunniffe, headteacher of LVS Ascot School in Berkshire, said she expected “hotspots” where state secondary schools would struggle to accommodate pupils transferring from private schools.
He said: “I think the state sector has its own struggles. We know what it’s like, funding and everything else, and the last thing anyone wants is to put more children through when they’re in big trouble.
What does the government say?
A Treasury consultation on the plan ended on Sunday (September 15).
A government spokesman said: “We want to ensure all children have the best chance to succeed. Ending tax cuts on private schools will help raise the revenue needed to fund education priorities for next year, such as recruiting 6,500 new teachers.
“There has been about a 75 per cent increase in private sector fees since 2000 and the number of children in independent schools has remained stable, so we do not expect the removal of taxes on private schools to have a significant impact on the state sector.”
