(From left) Nayab Saini, Dushyant Chautala and Bhupinder Hooda. (News18)
Ten years of anti-incumbency and Jat resentment may have put BJP chief minister Nayab Singh Saini at a disadvantage in the state with the polls due.
On August 16, as soon as the Election Commission announced the schedule for the Haryana polls, former state finance minister and senior BJP leader Captain Abhimanyu took to X, quoting a quote to “urge” cadres to give their best. “Waqt kam hai, jitna dum hai laga do, kuch ko mai jagaata hoon, kuch ko tum jagaa do” – these lines hardly hide the disquiet in the Haryana BJP which is wary of the lax cadre response that has cost the party in the Lok. Sabha elections when BJP’s numbers were halved compared to 2019 results.
Among many factors, BJP’s internal findings point to demotivated cadres who did not campaign as planned or were half-hearted after learning that tickets were being offered for mantles like Naveen Jindal, Ashok Tanwar or Ranjit Singh.
Now, there are two main reasons – 10 years of anti-incumbency and Jat resentment – that could put BJP chief minister Nayab Singh Saini at a disadvantage.
FAVORITE JAT JJP & INLD IN LIMBO
The two Jat favorites – Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) and Devi Lal’s Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) – are in tatters, which is not good news for the BJP. Now, there is very little chance of splitting the community vote and it is likely to go to Bhupinder Hooda’s Congress.
Now, seven out of 10 JJP MLAs have quit the party. As soon as EC announced the poll date, JJP received four resignations. MLAs like Anoop Dhanak, Ramniwas Surjakhera, Jogi Ram Sihag, Ram Kumar Gautam, Ishwar Singh, Ram Karan Kala and Devender Babli have resigned or distanced themselves from the party that rose to prominence in the last elections. Currently, JJP has only three MLAs, including its leader Dushyant Chautala and his mother Naina Chautala.
On the other hand, Haryana’s original Jat party – INLD – has been in a political coma ever since Dushyant Chautala split the party and formed JJP. The INLD, founded by former deputy prime minister and late Jat stalwart Devi Lal, is now led by 89-year-old Om Prakash Chautala. INLD’s political fortunes have declined since the split. In the October 2019 Assembly polls, the two parties contested separately. INLD then managed to win only one seat – Ellenabad – after contesting in 81 seats. Since then, the party has struggled to recover politically.
All is not perfect in congress
But to think that the Congress is in a perfect electoral space would be a mistake. If the Congress lost Naveen Jindal to the BJP during the Lok Sabha, it lost former Haryana minister Kiran Choudhry in June when she joined the BJP with her daughter Shruti and her supporters. After spending 45 years in the Congress, Choudhry, who belongs to the Jat community, has been in a strategic coup by the BJP to quell Jat discontent. The BJP also seems to have learned from the Lok Sabha polls and sent Choudhry to the Great House of Parliament instead of fielding him in the assembly elections.
At a time when the Hoodas tried to portray the BJP as anti-Haryana, Choudhry reversed the damage for the BJP. Choudhry, who belongs to the family of Chaudhary Bansi Lal who formed the alliance government in Haryana with the BJP, said: “We have an old relationship with the BJP and I am impressed by its policies. The BJP is working in the interest of the state and the nation…”
Also complicating things for the Congress is the cold war between the two state leaders – Bhupinder Hooda and Kumari Selja. While Hooda is the former chief minister of the state and still holds massive sway over the Jats, Selja is near 10, Janpath. What could further hurt the Congress in Haryana is that Selja – general secretary of the AICC and MP from Hisar – has thrown his hat in the assembly election ring and challenged Hooda’s one-upmanship. “Yes, I am going to participate in the election race in Haryana. In fact, I have been preparing since before the Lok Sabha elections,” said Gandhi loyalist.
THE CHALLENGE OF THE BJP
However, these factors may not be enough to stop the Congress this time, as the BJP is also facing 10 years of anti-incumbency – something that forced it to replace Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini as Haryana chief minister in March this year. .
The fact that Saini announced free money targeting contract workers, farmers and even journalists before the model code of conduct was kicked in is seen as an admission of the BJP on thin ice in Haryana. Also weighing on the BJP’s mind are the Punjabis in Haryana who make up about 8 percent of the state’s population. Many Hindus and Sikhs have families living in Punjab who are still holding the three agricultural laws – which were eventually repealed – against the BJP.
