As the world prepares to mark the first anniversary of the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7 and the ensuing war drags into its second year of fierce fighting on other fronts, many Americans are wondering why President Biden can’t end the conflict. .
Contrary to many comments, it certainly has not been for lack of trying.
Since the outbreak of war, Biden has visited Israel and has a host of conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken has made at least 10 trips to Israel. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III has also made several visits to the country since October 7 and has held numerous talks with his counterpart, Israeli Defense Minister Yoava Gallant. This is all an ongoing effort by lower-ranking US officials to engage Israel.
But for all the time and effort the Biden administration has put in, it has failed to broker a ceasefire between Israel and the militant group Hamas. Meanwhile, the threat of a wider war resurfaced this week as Iran launched a missile attack on Israel in retaliation for an escalation in the conflict with Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon.
The Biden administration is hardly alone in its struggle to find diplomatic footing in the Middle East. Starting from Oslo accords For the past thirty years, a series of American administrations have tried and failed to broker peace between Israel and the Palestinians.
At the same time, even America might want to go to war short and relatively restrainedthey are rare. The unfortunate reality of the battlefield is that a war against a group such as Hamas – with an estimated 30,000 fighters and hundreds of miles of tunnels installed in one of the most densely populated places on Earth – will be a long, bloody slog. There is nothing anyone – not even the president of America – can do to change that.
Mr. Biden critics counter whether the government could put more pressure on Netanyahu to force a ceasefire. Note that Israel received billion dollars’ worth of American military aid and dependence on America diplomatic cover. He said it gave him enough leverage to force Netanyahu’s hand. But what is it?
In practice, the United States often has less influence through allies than one can think. Historically, economic sanctions have a poor track record from forcing major concessions, especially when the issue of existential security is at stake – which, in the case of Israel, is. Indeed, threat for sanctions hard-right elements of Netanyahu’s coalition have not produced any kind of moderation. At the same time, the International Criminal Court announced that it would request an arrest warrant for Netanyahu and Gallant produced several other policies: united Israel’s political spectrum is fragmented around the current government.
Even if US pressure is effective enough to motivate the Netanyahu government to try to end the war, it may not succeed. Ending the war, after all, would require the cooperation of both Israelis and Hamas – and more specifically Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who shows no signs of budging.
Sinwar could unilaterally declare a ceasefire, release all remaining Israeli hostages and deny Israel one of the main reasons for the war. But Hamas seems intent enforce hostages and others doubled down on the hostilities. Of course, despite all the destruction and suffering in Gaza, Sinwar on some level still believes that he is win.
Even if America had succeeded in securing a bilateral ceasefire, it would probably not have resulted in a lasting peace. Really, everything structural and political reasons which has prevented peace for decades.
Because Israel must be liberated hundreds of the militants he served sentence of life for the murders in exchange for the release of the remaining hostages, the ranks of Hamas will rise during the ceasefire. Eventually a broken organization will rebuild and attack again. Moreover, regional spoilers – especially Iran – see the ongoing proxy conflict with Israel as a strategic interest.
A year on, the Biden administration’s diplomatic offensive has yielded some modest results. The casualty rate – although reported by Gaza’s Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health – has been Calm down. Aid to Gazan civilians, however insufficient flow. More than three-fifths of the hostages taken on October 7 have been released or recovered, although 97 have not. And, most importantly, a full-blown regional Middle East war — which was feared at some point in the past year — has been averted, at least for now.
All that recognition is cold comfort for Palestinians caught in the crossfire, Israeli hostages who remain in Gaza and a large displaced population in southern Lebanon and northern Israel.
After the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, America has become more aware of the limits of what military power can do. But other tools of national power, including diplomacy, also have their limits. External mediators cannot stop this war, especially if the combatants themselves do not want to stop the war.
Raphael S. Cohen is director of the strategy and doctrine program at the Air Force Rand Project and the national security program at the Pardee Rand Graduate School.
