Neither the threat of wildfires nor catastrophic floods has kept thousands of Americans from migrating to locations in Texas and Florida where extreme weather-related disasters cause increasing damage year after year.
Between July 2022 and July 2023, almost 69,000 People are buying homes in flood-prone counties in the Sunshine State — including Brevard, Manatee and Lee — according to a new analysis from Redfin. About 24,000 other Americans became new residents in the most flood-prone areas of Texas during the same period — including in Brazoria and Fort Bend counties — an online real estate brokerage said.
The influx of new residents occurred as former residents fled.
“Balloon insurance costs and rising natural disasters are driving thousands of Americans out of at-risk areas, but those people are quickly being replaced by others for whom climate change is not a top concern,” said Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa. in the report.
Part-time heaven at a steep price
Depending on where they move in the state, new residents in the danger-prone areas of Florida should expect to find themselves in the path of hurricanes or other types of severe storms.
Most recently, Hurricane Debby, the fourth storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, made landfall is near Steinhatchee, a small community in north Florida of less than 1,000 people. The storm has so far left nearly 300,000 Floridians without power, before being downgraded to a tropical storm.
Moving to Florida and Texas will also mean higher homeowner’s insurance for new residents, as natural disasters have caused it insurance companies to raise annual rates for coverage.
Homeowners insurance rates are expected to increase 15% and 36% in Florida and Texas, respectively, between 2022 and 2023, according to data from S&P Global. A resident of Orlando, Florida, told CBS News in June if their home insurance increases to $6,000 from $1,500 per year for the 2024 policy.
Asked by clients how much they will pay for homeowners insurance in Florida, Rafael Corrales, a Redfin real estate agent based in Miami, told prospective homebuyers that it all depends on how close they want to the coast.
“If you’re looking to buy a home in Florida, you need to understand that you can’t be near water without being in a flood zone,” Corrales said in a statement. “If you’re within three miles of the shoreline, Mother Nature will visit you,” he said, adding, “That’s the price you pay to live in paradise.”
From one wildfire country to another
States at risk of wildfires are also experiencing an influx of new residents, with 63,365 more people entering fire-risk states in 2023 than leaving, according to Redfin.
Leading the trend is Texas.
About 35,000 new residents migrated to fire-threatened areas of Texas — including Grayson, Hunt, Midland, Parker and Wise counties, Redfin analysis shows. That’s in contrast to the roughly 17,357 Americans who fled California’s fire-prone counties — including Lassen, Solano and Napa. The exodus of Californians marks a reversal from 2022, suggesting that people may be more responsive to fire risk in the Golden State.
Texas has a lot of undeveloped land adjacent to developed land, making some parts of the state vulnerable to wildfires, Redfin said. The Lone Star State had the second-highest number of wildfires last year — 7,102 — second only to California’s 7,364, Redfin said. One of the reasons for migrating from one fire-risk area to another, according to the report, is the cost of living.
“For many Americans, things like the cost of living and distance from family come first over the risk of disaster, which can feel less immediate and more abstract,” said Redfin’s de la Campa. “But the cost-benefit calculus seems to be changing in places like California and Florida, where rising home insurance costs and high catastrophic rates have had a real impact on residents and are making national news.”
