One of the worst things about democracy is the way we talk about it.
For example, politicians like to talk about unity, but our constitutional system was created to preserve unity, preferring a more adversarial approach, fighting factions. Checks and balances, the separation of powers and shared authority between the federal and state governments are based on the idea that unity will be rare and temporary. The Constitution places the most cherished liberties in a high place, which is difficult to achieve in moments of unifying populist fervor.
Inappropriate rhetoric applies not only to democratic mechanisms but also to democratic culture. Democratic manners ask politicians not to say that voters are wrong. But competitive elections – essential to the definition of a viable democracy – require some “wrong” voters. I don’t mean that policy preferences (although that is often the case), I just mean that elections make winners and losers. Instead, the winning politician, with nearly half of the electorate on his side, routinely declared that “the American people have spoken” after each victory.
More importantly, voters are often mistaken about the basic facts of what will happen in the election. For example, the Biden campaign is struggling with voters who believe the economy is worse than it is today. To be clear, I’m not saying the economy is good, although that argument can be made. No, President Biden is struggling to convince voters that the economy is not the worst.
A new YouGov survey asked voters to say which decade, since the 1930s, had the worst economy. A third (32%) say the 2020s, the current decade, will be the worst, worse than the 1930s or 1970s. Only 23% said the ’30s and only 5% called the ’70s the worst. This is, by any objective measure, wrong, spectacularly wrong.
Now, there is a lot of partisan bias at work here. Only 19% of Democrats say ours is the worst decade and 24% say the 1930s, but 45% of Republicans believe the 2020s are the worst. However, when nearly 1 in 5 Democrats mistakenly believe things are worse than during the Great Depression, Democrats have a problem.
This is just one aspect of the Biden “vibe” problem. Many Americans (42%) think 2020 will be the worst decade for crime, which is wrong. Twenty-eight percent think the 1940s — World War II, duh — had “the most wars.” Only 4% named the 1970s and 6% mentioned the 2000s – when America fought the Vietnam war and invaded Iraq and Afghanistan. But 19% said the current decade has “the most war” – and we’re not at war, although the events in Ukraine and Gaza make times seem bellicose. From scientific breakthroughs to family discontent to racial inequality, many Americans simply think it’s never been worse.
Now, subjectively, there is a valid argument that things are not good or could or should be better. But we’re talking about objective judgment here, and many Americans are objectively wrong. And in fairness to them, I suspect a lot of people don’t think they’re making objective decisions. When people say, “I had the worst day – or decade – ever!” they don’t have to be literal. He made a declaration of vibes.
This is clearly a big deal for Joe Biden. Thanks to the damage of inflation and high interest rates and partly to their own shortcomings, they cannot change their minds about the economy. But causality works both ways. Economic realities contribute to negative attitudes, and negative attitudes shape how the economy is perceived. And on many fronts, especially race, Biden has fueled that negative attitude (see his commencement address at Morehouse College).
But that explanation is not enough. Democracy depends on the promise of gradual and cumulative progress. James Madison did not want the polls to be the measure of the mood of the voters, but the election. That is why we have them constantly, at every level of government. Democracy, for Madison, is not about unity or agreement, but about argument and disagreement, and constant self-correction.
Thanks to that vision, we have made great strides. But now, both sides revolve around catastrophism and presentism. Donald Trump – who has the historical memory of a goldfish – fake screeches that have never been worse. But as cartoonish as rhetoric is, they make right-wing versions of common left-wing arguments. Indeed, every four years, partisans insist that this is the “most important election” and that disaster or salvation rests on the vote. The incessant howling of wolves has caused the mess we are in, and may be the mess to come.
After all, when you’re constantly telling people that we’re in an existential crisis, that vibe creates reality, whether it’s reality or not.
Jonah Goldberg is editor-in-chief of The Dispatch and host of The Remnant podcast. That’s Twitter @JonahDispatch.