What awaits the Duke of Sussex as he enters his fifth decade?

If the Duke of Sussex used his 40th birthday to reflect on the past decade, he would have a lot to think about.

Prince Harry will celebrate in private on Sunday, with his wife and children, in Montecito in California before relaxing with friends.

The last ten years of his life have been hectic.

Will the next decade be any smoother?

That is not an easy question to answer. As usual with Harry and the Duchess of Sussex, the view is polarized and settled.

I first met Prince Harry a month before his 30th birthday. He has now told the BBC that there are times in his life when he feels “anxious”.

Back then, we talked about traveling by tube – something he told me I’d never done before. He joked with a BBC colleague I shared. And he talks about his plans for a future far away from the comfort and shelter provided by the Army.

I remember walking home thinking how sad Prince Harry must have looked.

Must be chatty and entertaining. Enthusiasm and enthusiasm. But also restless.

I last met Prince Harry in May this year. Now he is a husband, father, ex-soldier, ex-royalty and resident of California. The conversation about the London Underground felt like a lifetime ago.

We spent about an hour filming with him in a central London hotel where we watched him lead a game at a children’s party for one of the charities. He couldn’t resist joining and became the impressive winner of the “who can eat strawberry lace the fastest” competition.

In many ways, we are watching the Harry of old. They are informal and fun. He mucked and chatted to almost everyone.

In the distraction of leaving royal life behind, this version of Prince Harry has not been seen as often.

In recent weeks, there have been suggestions that we could see more of Prince Harry in England, if he feels the pull of his old home and reaches out to old friends and people he has worked with about spending more time here. .

But there is no evidence to support these rumours.

One friend of Harry’s told me that a return to England was not on the cards. “Why would he give up everything he’s achieved there to come back here? His life is now in America.”

But those close to him say he wants to come back regularly to work with the charities and organizations he supports.

Security is an issue. The row with the Home Office over the level of police protection afforded the UK continues.

The point is Harry doesn’t feel his safety is guaranteed in England.

When he was here at the beginning of the year, he was offered a place to stay at a royal residence in London.

He refused because he believed the location of the palace would become public knowledge, attract media attention and make his movement in London difficult and risky.

However, he remains under the radar, based with the team in a London hotel.

The physical distance between the prince and some of the organizations he works for means that the relationship has changed.

But Harry’s team from the Archewell Foundation and the many projects I spoke to, said that the prince was an active partner and involved, even though he was thousands of miles away.

Later this month, he will be in New York working with several organizations including the Halo Trust, which helps clear landmines and build communities in conflict zones.

After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the Halo Trust made a phone call between Harry and some of the organization’s staff in Donbas, eastern Ukraine.

“It’s not that fast, mind you. It’s a long conversation and it’s really important to them,” said Louise Vaughan of the Halo Trust.

Back in Montecito, California, Harry’s life shifts between school routines to hanging out with his A-list friends.

There have been some published photos of Harry walking his dog or Meghan having lunch with friends, but with her own security team, she can lead a normal life.

Last weekend, Harry and Meghan were at the opening of a new bookstore in the city.

On the surface it seems a rather modest affair until you look at the guest list – Oprah Winfrey, Ellen de Generes and his wife Portia de Rossi were also there.

The circle of Montecito is exclusive, discreet and rich. It provides a luxurious retreat for Harry and Meghan and provides a level of protection from the public spotlight.

But Duke needs to keep making money. Maintaining a home and security detail is not cheap.

A multi-million dollar deal with Netflix remains where other lucrative contracts have ended.

In December comes “Polo” – a series looking at “the elite world of professional polo”. It is a sport loved by generations of royalty. Harry is the executive producer.

And in just a few weeks, the paperback version of Harry’s memoir “Spare” will be published, after the hardback sold six million copies and became the best-selling non-fiction book of all time.

Unusually for a memoir like this, the new paperback will have no updates or additional chapters. There will be no coronation attended by the prince; I don’t know how hard it is for my sick father and sister.

Is this an olive branch from Prince Harry? A recognition that the bombshells revealed in the first version of “Spare” caused so much damage that say another, after a few months of challenges for the royal family, will be unpalatable?

Perhaps.

The relationship between Prince Harry and the royal family is still interesting.

And there is some evidence of the slightest change in family relations.

News of King’s cancer diagnosis brought Harry immediately back to England to see his father in February.

He was in England for 24 hours and spent only half an hour with the King. A very strange visit that many find difficult to understand.

But the fact that Harry flew over and the King made time to see him suggested there was potential to fix the fractured relationship.

It’s a different story, now with his brother.

The Prince of Wales and his sister were not on speaking terms. There is anger, frustration and bitterness that shows no sign of easing.

Harry’s TV interviews, books and public criticism of the royal family have been too much for his older brother and some other royals.

“I just can’t see the fix,” said a source who has worked with William and Harry. “It’s been a long time now and I haven’t found peace. Their lives are now very much separated. Sad.”

When it comes to milestone birthdays, repairing broken family relationships can be complicated and slow. Some bonds feel irreparable.

Prince Harry has made some life-changing choices over the past decade.

They have left behind the “anxious” and restless 30-year-old prince and replaced him with a 40-year-old royal outsider, “happy” about the next decade.