This week we will look at India’s relations with the neighboring countries of East ASEAN countries, and especially their visit this week.
The visit is part of several outreaches to the region in Modi’s new term:
– Modi has already visited Brunei and Singapore, as he was due to visit Thailand for the BIMSTEC Summit which was canceled due to the sacking of the government there. He will travel to Laos in October for the ASEAN-India Summit and the East Asia Summit.
-New Delhi has hosted Vietnam PM Pham Minh Chinh and Malaysia PM Anwar Ibrahim for the past three months
-President Murmu went to Timor Leste to visit New Zealand and Fiji
In Brunei, the first bilateral visit by the Indian PM, Modi and the Sultan of Brunei discussed several issues, including:
1. Strategic issues and improving defense cooperation. Currently, they are not strategic partners but participate in military exercises and work with joint working groups to institutionalize the relationship. More importantly, Modi targeted China for its dispute in the South China Sea with Brueni and other ASEAN partners.
2. MoU renews space cooperation including research and training, also Brunei hosts Telemetry Tracking Command Center for ISRO
3. Increase energy supply from Brunei, which has decreased significantly as India has cut Russian oil intake. They discussed long-term contracts for LNG
4. And Trade – although India’s trade with other ASEAN countries has doubled in the past decade, trade with Brunei has actually decreased – from hovering around US$ 500 million, down to $ 200 million last year. In comparison, China-Brunei trade is about $3 billion.
Modi’s visit was a study in contrasts – as was his next trip to Singapore. PM Lawrence Wong was only sworn in a few months ago, compared to the Sultan of Brunei who has been the world’s longest reigning monarch since 1967.
1. Singapore is India’s largest trading partner in the ASEAN group with bilateral trade of approximately $35 billion, which has increased 2.5 times since signing the CECA agreement in 2005. About 9,000 Indian companies are registered in Singapore-
2. SINGAPORE is also India’s largest source of FDI globally – a cumulative $160 billion since 2000, although the rate dropped sharply by 30% last year. More on my interview with Singapore FM Balakrishnan
3. India and Singapore have the strongest strategic partnership among ASEAN countries, the highest number of exchanges and military exercises
4. The highlight of the visit was the signing of the Semiconductor Ecosystem partnership, together with the MoU on digital cooperation, health and skill development. Modi also visited AEM’s Singapore factory.
-Semiconductors are used in all electronic devices- crucial to India’s growth as a high-tech manufacturing hub
-Singapore produces 10% of the world’s $588 billion semiconductor industry worldwide, and is a major player in IC design, packaging and wafer fabrication- an industry it has built over 6 decades.
-With land and labor issues, and the US-China contestation, Singapore is looking to diversify Semiconductor manufacturing and invest in other countries, at a time when India is looking to invest in semiconductors.
-MoU said both sides seek resilient semiconductor supply chain, in reference to de-risking US China’s competition for the region, including the US’s protectionist moves and China’s predatory practices.
What are the challenges for India in its reach in the east?
1. India has opted out of the ASEAN-led RCEP agreement in 2020, which not only disappointed the countries, but also raised questions about India’s credibility in the negotiations.
2. India’s trade with ASEAN countries has grown to $120 billion last year, but ASEAN’s largest trading partner remains China with bilateral trade of $722 billion and $440 billion with the US in 2022.
3. Maritime connectivity to ASEAN countries has a history, but India remains constrained in land connectivity due to tensions in the North East and Myanmar connecting India on the proposed tri-state highway to Southeast Asia.
4. India has also taken a different position to participate in the Myanmar military junta after the Coup from the position of ASEAN, and invited Ministers to the BIMSTEC Summit, which ASEAN did not.
5. Although the region is home to many US bases, ASEAN countries have adopted a more cautious approach to China’s aggression against Taiwan, and India’s participation in the Quad. New Delhi needs to coordinate its strategic position carefully if it means sticking to its motto of “ASEAN Centrality” in the Indo-Pacific.
6. Communal tensions in India have been met with concern in several ASEAN countries including Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia and Malaysia – which are also multicultural, multireligious and have large Indian diasporas.
WV Take: India’s relationship with ASEAN countries dates back more than 10 centuries, with its involvement in trade, culture, religion, and people migrating there. India has made many re-starts in its ASEAN engagement, from Look East in the 1990s to Act East in 2015- but until it breaks the cycle of neglecting the region when other issues arise, it will be difficult to sustain the clear benefits of cooperation. with them. Above all, India can take a leaf from ASEAN’s success for groups like SAARC and BIMSTEC.
WV Recommended Reading:
1. THE ASEAN MIRACLE by Kishore Mahbubani, also Has the West Lost it and Living the Asian Century
2. East India, South China by Amitav Acharya
3. The Merlion And The Ashoka: Singapore-India Strategic Relations Edited by Anit Mukherjee
4. Thirty Years of ASEAN-India Relations: Towards an Indo-Pacific Edited by Prabir De
5. Is ASEAN Important?: A View from Within by Marty Natalegawa (Indonesian diplomat and former FM)
6. Chip War by Chris Miller
7. When the Chips Are Down by Pranay Kotasthane and Abhiram Manchi
Published – 06 September 2024 19:57 IST
