Venezuela’s opposition has run out of options to challenge President Nicolas Maduro’s claim to re-election victory.
Opposition presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia fled in exile to Spain over the weekend. The popular leader presented in the polls, Maria Corina Machado, is hiding. Other opposition figures have been arrested and Mr Maduro is firmly in charge of the oil-rich country – showing no signs of a deal.
Mr. Maduro’s disputed victory in the July 28 election is being challenged not only by the opposition or historic geopolitical rivals such as the United States, but also by Venezuela’s leftist allies such as Brazil and Colombia.
The latter has come empty-handed to help find a peaceful solution to the crisis.
In the country, there is a lot of talk about what the opposition calls a stolen election – but people make criticism in whispers: no one wants to join the more than 2,400 people who have been arrested since the vote, including children, and some are accused of “terrorism.”
Mr. Maduro will be sworn in for a third term on January 10, and in the next four months, anything can happen.
But now, Venezuela looks like this: Mr. Maduro and other heirs of the late socialist leader Hugo Chaves are closing ranks, the opposition is trying to reorganize itself and the outside world is evaluating how to deal with a Maduro that international sanctions and pressure have long failed to shake.
Sweep everything
The National Electoral Council, loyal to Mr. Maduro, declared him the winner of the election with 52 percent of the vote. That means another six-year term for the former bus driver chosen by Chavez to replace him.
The opposition released copies of voting records from polling stations, saying the data proved claims Mr Maduro’s victory was false and that Gonzalez Urrutia won by a landslide.
The act of publishing the results online has led to government investigations and accusations that the opposition is carrying out conspiracies, seizing functions and sabotage.
The government has yet to release detailed voting records to back up its victory claims – it says it can’t, because the election tally system was hacked.
Mr. Maduro insisted that he won and at least within the general rules of negotiations with the opposition.
“It is clear that the government is not trying to produce, and on the contrary it is digging,” said Antulio Rosales, a political scientist and professor at York University in Canada.
“It’s a strategy of dominating, sweeping everything,” said Giulio Cellini, head of the LOG political consultancy.
The goal, he said, “is to keep Maduro in place at any cost, because the cost of giving up power is greater.”
After Venezuela’s last election, in 2018, Mr. Maduro also claimed victory amid widespread allegations of fraud. With the support of the military and other institutions, they were able to hold on to power despite international sanctions.
Mr Maduro has led the oil-rich but cash-poor country since 2013.
His tenure, amid sanctions and mismanagement of the domestic economy, caused GDP to drop by 80% in a decade, causing more than seven million of the country’s 30 million citizens to flee.
Gonzalez Urrutia, a 75-year-old former diplomat who was not well known – until now – said last week that he did not think he would be exiled, as he has been.
But for many Venezuelans, the flight came as no surprise. He is under tremendous pressure, not only from a legal point of view – he has refused three summonses to appear in court – but also because of the daily rain of insults from Mr Maduro, who calls him “dirty”, a coward and even a Nazi.
Machado, a popular opposition leader barred by a Maduro-loyal court from running for president, now lives in hiding.
Many Venezuelans now wonder if they, too, will flee into exile.
Protests erupted after Maduro’s victory was announced and in clashes with security forces 27 people were killed and nearly 200 injured.
Experts say the United States will not react as strongly as Donald Trump did after Maduro’s disputed victory in 2018. Later, the US government said it did not consider Mr Maduro to be president and recognized opposition leader Juan Guaido.
The latest US punishment came earlier this month, when it seized one of Mr Maduro’s planes, in the Dominican Republic. The United States is now expected to impose sanctions on members of Maduro’s government.
Pablo Quintero, also from the LOG consultancy, said that in the short and medium term, Maduro’s government expects to rule quietly.
“They have been trained for this kind of situation and are willing to put up with it to stay in power,” he said.
Published – 10 September 2024 11:45 IST