LONDON — NATO forces, ships and aircraft took to the frigid North Atlantic Ocean last month to sharpen their skills for a potential future war at sea, whether in the turbulent Atlantic or in the waters closer to a hypothetical Russian enemy.
The exercise – led by US Naval Forces Europe and the US Navy’s 6th Fleet – “focuses on the strategic waterways and airspace around Iceland,” said a NATO press release, an area described as “an important hub in the North Atlantic.” NATO forces are training track enemy naval forces — including submarines — and respond to mass casualty events.
But one part of the exercise was designed with a different area, although the hypothetical enemy was the same, in mind.
With the US Navy’s P-8 Poseidon aircraft as its eyes, the Polish Navy’s Attack Missile (NSM) unit used its time in Iceland to simulate attacks on enemy ships at sea.
Lt. Bartlomiej Gryglewski, a liaison officer for the Polish navy’s missile unit, told ABC News that his contingent carried out every step until firing ammunition. “We ‘do’ a lot of strikes,” Gryglewski said, describing the Norwegian-made NSM as a “pretty awesome” weapon.
The combination of “precise missiles” and information collected by American planes above gives “a high percentage chance – almost 100% – that the target will be hit,” Gryglewski added.
However, the North Atlantic was not the hunting ground he wanted.
A Naval Strike Missile-Mobile Launch Vehicle is in a raised firing position during an exercise as part of North Viking 24 at Keflavik Air Base, Iceland, August 26, 2024.
US Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Almagissel Schuring
“We almost always conduct exercises in the Baltic region,” Gryglewski said, “protecting the Baltic Sea region from the enemy” as part of Poland’s coastal defense system.
‘Lake’ NATO
There, Russia “faces a real imbalance” with its NATO rival, Sidharth Kaushal of the British Royal Service Institute think tank told ABC News.
NATO’s inclusion of Finland and Sweden — a direct consequence of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 — has led some officials to jokingly refer to the Baltic Sea as “Lake NATO.”
The trope “is a bit of an exaggeration, but only a bit,” Kaushal said. “The maritime imbalance significantly supports NATO, and this is a big problem for Russia.”
The Baltic Sea remains the main oil export route for Russian ships departing from the terminal in St. Commercial and military ships alike must transit the sea to reach the Atlantic Ocean, crossing the Gulf of Finland and the narrow Denmark Strait with NATO eyes on all sides.
Russia’s strategic Kaliningrad exclave is surrounded by NATO countries, close to the shores of Latvia, Poland and Sweden.
In the event of a war, NATO planes and ships could launch attacks on Russian territory from the Baltic region which would “give Russian air defenses a very limited warning time,” Kashual said.
“There are various conundrums that the preponderance of alliances in the Baltic Sea face with Russia,” said Kaushal. “Reminding Russia of that fact may be an important goal for America, and for the broader alliance.”
Russia’s Foreign Ministry and the Kremlin have regularly criticized NATO military exercises – especially those near their borders. In July, for example, Moscow attacked NATO exercises in Finland as “an integral part of NATO’s comprehensive provocative efforts to contain Russia.”
U.S. and Polish naval personnel give orders from a launcher to headquarters during a missile-lunch simulation during an exercise as part of North Viking 24 at Keflavik Air Base, Iceland, August 26, 2024.
US Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Almagissel Schuring
Control of the Baltic Sea was not given to the Western allies. Russia’s naval cruise missile bombardment of Ukraine from the Black Sea since 2022 has proven devastating, proving that Moscow can “present a real threat across Europe,” Kashual said.
“Sinking people early and showing the ability to do it will be a real priority for regional countries like Poland, although the aggregate balance of forces is currently heavily skewed in the direction of NATO in the Baltics,” he added.
“There is a temporal question; can the Baltic Fleet be sunk in a timely and cost-effective manner before it does an unacceptable level of damage across Europe with cruise missiles?”
Poland’s NSM, Kashual added, could be a “big part” of NATO’s answer to that question.
The Polish government has said a lot. “Due to the strengthening of coastal missile units, manned and unmanned reconnaissance platforms, modern mine warfare and submarines, we will increase our ability to protect our coasts,” the Ministry of Defense wrote in the 2032 plan.
However, Western militaries may have to contend with the same industrial strains that pitted Ukraine against Russia.
Advanced technology like NSM may work well, but reloading ammo can be a challenge. Last fall, Poland’s Defense Minister signed a deal with NSM producer Kongsberg Defense and Aerospace for “several hundred” more missiles.
Naval missile forces have many active case studies. In the Black Sea, Ukraine was able to hold back the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and even sank the Moskva flagship.
In the Middle East, Yemen’s Houthis have attacked dozens of commercial ships and attacked Western warships in nearby waters. The group even claimed to have fired on ships in the Mediterranean Sea.
“I think everybody’s getting some experience now,” Gryglewski said of the two remaining conflicts. “But that’s all I can say about it.”
