KYIV, Ukraine – Ukrainian troops and Russian reinforcements appear to be preparing for major confrontations in villages and towns in western Russia following a surprise Ukrainian offensive in the region.
Ukrainian forces surged into Russia’s Kursk region, just over the border with Ukraine, catching Russia by surprise and encountering limited resistance in the first few days of the campaign, which began last Tuesday. The Ukrainian advance slowed over the weekend, though it is unclear whether the Ukrainians are facing greater resistance or simply looking to consolidate the gains they have made.
In a nightly video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Saturday that he was receiving regular updates on operations designed to “push the war into the territory of the attackers.”
The president added that the attack was “exactly the type of pressure that is needed – pressure on the aggressor.”
It was Zelenskyy’s clearest comment yet on the attack, which Ukrainian officials refused to acknowledge for the first few days.
Ukrainian soldiers posted to social media from inside Russia
The Ukrainians are still not giving details, although some information is starting to emerge. Ukrainian forces began posting on social media from inside Russia. They show themselves tearing up Russian flags in captured villages, or standing in front of road signs to show they have entered the city.
In Russia, military and other security officials gave brief statements about Russia’s intention to quickly expel Ukrainians and seize the Russian border. Russian television showed a column of tanks and armored vehicles heading towards the Kursk region.
However, many Russian military bloggers remain critical of Russia’s response, describing it as slow and disorganized.
Tens of thousands of Russian civilians fled Kursk as the Ukrainian military moved in, and some have taken to social media to complain that the Russian government did not issue warnings and did not provide an organized evacuation. Many said that he ran away from the house as fast as he could, taking only a few things and throwing them into the car.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said those evacuating their homes would receive 10,000 rubles, equivalent to $115 at the current exchange rate.
Another battle for Kursk
The Ukraine operation was described as the first time a foreign country had taken control of part of Russia or the Soviet Union since Nazi Germany invaded in World War II. The war featured a monumental battle between Nazi and Soviet armies at Kursk, which historians describe as the largest tank battle, and one of the largest battles of the war. The Soviets came out on top after more than a month of fighting in July and August 1943, the war seemed critical in the defeat of the Nazis.
The army fighting in Kursk is smaller now, but the Ukrainian offensive has changed the dynamics of the war.
Russia has been attacking for months and continues to advance in the eastern region of Donbas, taking several villages. Russia has suffered heavy casualties with a wave of ground attacks.
Most of the villages have been reduced to rubble by the time Russia claims them, and military analysts say they have no strategic value. Still, Russia’s progress reflects the gains in troops and firepower that Ukraine has made during the war.
Ukraine’s goals are not yet clear
The Ukrainian surprise attack has boosted Ukrainian morale and given Russia an unexpected setback on its own territory. The operation once again demonstrated Ukraine’s ability to carry out actions that have caught Russia flat-footed.
“Ukraine still has the initiative and momentum behind this operation,” said Michael Kofman, with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “But his goals are not clear. If Ukraine is more successful than anticipated, then he becomes more ambitious. Or, if the operation does not go well, he may become more conservative and reduce his goals.”
He emphasized that Ukraine is taking a major gamble with the operation because its forces are stretched thin, especially on the main battlefield in the east of the country.
“If Ukraine is struggling to maintain its own prepared defenses on its territory, how can it hold on to Kursk, on Russian territory?” said Kofman, who makes regular visits to the front lines in Ukraine, most recently in June. “How is Ukraine going to deal with the amount of territory it has to defend, on top of the front line it is currently pushing?”
The Biden administration says Ukraine did not notify Russia of the attack. The US administration, which is wary of actions that could lead to escalation or wider war, has not expressed opposition to the Ukrainian strike, although it has said it wants to know more about Ukraine’s intentions.
Meanwhile, Russia did not let up in the bombing campaign against Ukrainian cities, which killed more than 20 Ukrainian civilians in recent days.
Ukraine’s air force said on Sunday it had shot down all but a few of the 57 Russian drones it launched overnight over dozens of towns and cities. Russia also fired four large missiles made by North Korea. Ukraine says the missile was also hit in flight, but the debris that fell is still dangerous.
A 35-year-old man and his 4-year-old son were killed when remnants of a missile hit an apartment building on the outskirts of Kyiv, officials said. They are among eight Ukrainian civilians killed in various attacks on Saturday and Sunday.
A Russian missile attack on Friday caused a massive fire at a supermarket in the eastern town of Kostiantynivka, killing 14 and wounding dozens, officials added.