The conviction of Donald J. Trump in nearly three dozen counts of crime plunges the country into unmapped political terrain, a rare moment that can reshuffle the 2024 race that for months has been locked in stasis and defined by the former polarized president.
The extraordinary conviction of the former president unleashed a series of unprecedented constitutional, electoral and logistical questions. Yes, they can be criminals. Less clear is whether Thursday’s shocking decision will shake public opinion of Mr. Trump, who for nearly a decade has defied predictions of political death.
Now he must go through the rituals of the American presidential campaign as a criminal. It will be a high-pressure stress test, not only of Mr. Trump but of American political traditions, legal institutions and the ability to hold elections under some of the greatest partisan strains in decades — if not since the Civil War.
The country will watch as Mr Trump argues with President Biden over his criminal record next month in their first debate, in addition to sparring over the economy, foreign policy, immigration and abortion rights.
Shortly after it will come to the unlikeliest of split screens: The sentence on July 11, when Mr. Trump will find out if he faces probation or up to four years in prison, it is one week before he is set to officially receive the party’s presidential nomination in Milwaukee. . The appeal process will be played along with advertising blitzes in the battle of the country.
“The real verdict is going to be November 5, people,” Mr. Trump said as he left the Manhattan courthouse, vowing to fight through the election. “It’s been a long time coming.”
That’s what he and Mr. Biden agree on.
“There is only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: At the ballot box,” the president wrote in a fundraising email within an hour of the verdict.
Mr Trump has spent much of his political career persuading supporters to question the legitimacy of long-sacrosanct democratic institutions like courts, elections and judges. The reaction on Thursday was more of the same: A few minutes after the wrong verdict was read out loud, he made himself a “political prisoner”.
But while Mr. Trump’s accusations carry historical significance, they have a small flavor. He was convicted on 34 counts of falsifying business records to disguise hush-money payments made to porn stars at the height of his 2016 campaign. The crime is not the same as the federal case of an attempt to overturn the 2020 election — a reality that could be a source of concern for voters. And delays in three other cases against him mean nothing can be decided before Election Day.
For months, Mr. Trump has been bracing his supporters for this moment, calling the case a politically motivated hoax aimed at damaging the presidential election. He has publicly and privately lashed out at various accusations, vowing revenge if he takes the White House.
Trump’s allies have spoken of counter-investigations into those they believe have targeted him. “Accountability will come,” the campaign arm of House Republicans wrote in a fundraising text, “and justice will be served.”
On Thursday evening, Mr. Trump’s campaign website was transformed into an argument for innocence, a choice that indicated new political territory – and personal stakes – in the 2024 race. NEVER SURRENDER” in capital letters.
“I was just convicted in a RIGGED political Witch Hunt trial: I AM NOT GUILTY!” the page said. “They broke into my house, arrested me, took my picture, and NOW THEY ARE JUST LOOKING AT ME!”
The fact that Mr. Trump famously supported the “lock her up” chant against Hillary Clinton in 2016 did not go down well with his longtime adversary. On Thursday, Mrs. Clinton used the opportunity to sell coffee mugs featuring a cartoon of her and the words “Turns out she’s right about everything” printed in Democratic blue.
“The design,” he wrote on Instagram, “was finished today.”
Throughout the Republican primary race, each indictment of Mr. Trump drew the party’s base closer to him, helping him raise political support and dollars. Early signs emerged Thursday that the ruling could repeat the pattern.
Shortly after the conviction, the website that processes campaign contributions, WinRed, crashed briefly. Some supporters posted pictures of their donation receipts after the site started working again. One Silicon Valley executive who previously voted for and donated to Mrs Clinton said he had given Mr Trump $300,000.
Most Republicans — some of whom have traveled to New York to show courthouse solidarity — denounced the case and its outcome.
“It’s a shame,” said Speaker Mike Johnson. “A travesty of justice,” said Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee. Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, who regularly attacked Mr. Trump during the primary campaign, dismissed the legal process as a political act carried out by “some kangaroo court.”
The Republican National Committee privately circulated talking points that read like decaffeinated versions of some of Mr. Trump’s social media posts. “The Witch-Hunt directed by Biden is a full-frontal assault on our Constitution,” one read.
Some of his staunchest supporters went further. Kristan Hawkins, a prominent antiabortion leader, announced that the decision has validated her decision to move to Idaho.
“No one will be safe in this new banana republic, especially the Conservative leadership,” he wrote on social media. “I urge my friends to all look for a new home country that will uphold our Constitution.”
The Trump campaign is monitoring the party for a less than comprehensive display of loyalty. After former Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland, a moderate Republican who is now in the Senate, wrote in X that he asked “all Americans to respect the verdict,” Trump’s top adviser, Chris LaCivita, wrote, “You just ended your campaign.”
Despite all the public displays of anger and consternation, the memo by Mr. Trump pollsters argue that the conviction will have little impact on the race because voters have formed their views on the trial and actions of the former president. The problem, he wrote, was “baked into the cake.”
The jury’s conviction is more serious than the indictment or even the congressional process that made Mr. Trump the first American president to be impeached twice. And some Democrats believe the ruling could sway voters in November.
“Sometimes when there is a fight about Trump and whether he has broken the law or should be impeached, many voters read it as smallpox in both houses. It’s politics,” said Angela Kuefler, a Democratic pollster. “But there’s a difference between thinking that impeachment is political and going to the ballot box and checking the name next to an accused criminal. The psychology is different.”
The Biden campaign has long been clear that it does not hang on to the possibility of the election with confidence. Voters, the campaign has consistently argued, have been distracted by legal intrigue and additional developments in Mr. Trump’s criminal case. The campaign says abortion and Mr Trump’s threat to democracy resonate more.
Mr. Biden’s campaign took a controlled approach on Thursday, issuing only a brief statement saying “no one is above the law.” Prominent supporters like Governor Gavin Newsom of California were conspicuously silent.
The scale of his political influence, said Geoff Garin, a pollster for the Biden campaign, may depend on Mr. Trump’s shocking reaction in the coming days and weeks.
“Candidates who have faced this situation generally handle it by expressing their sadness and saying that they have learned,” said Mr. Garin. “The verdict itself will hurt Trump voters, and the way they react to the verdict will be even more in the wrong way.”
In a way, Republicans agree. Brad Todd, a Republican strategist, said the party’s ability to unite voters behind Mr. Trump will depend on whether the former president can make a decision not about his personal future but about the argument that the case reflects Democrats’ desperation to end the campaign. all expenses.
“They couldn’t beat us at the ballot box, so they tried to beat us in court,” Mr Todd said. “The mistake has been made for the voters and not for Trump himself, and if he denies it, it could be the most important moment of the campaign.”
But in some ways, the strategists associated with the campaign also admit that they are operating blindly, with no historical parallels.
Before the decision, pollsters from both parties privately acknowledged that there was little predictive value in asking voters how they would react to such a historic moment — the question was entirely hypothetical.
Never.
