WASHINGTON — The election of Donald Trump for a second term and the resignation of the US Senate from Republicans could undo many of the national climate policies that most reduce the emission of greenhouse gases that are warming the planet, according to climate solutions experts.
While he listed the most disparate measures, they corresponded to the policies and agencies Trump said he would target: President Joe Biden’s landmark climate law, which funnels money into energy measures that fight climate change, plus the rules he issued by the Environmental Protection Agency to limit leaks of the powerful climate pollutant methane, pollution from coal-fired power plants, and exhaust emissions from cars and trucks.
The change comes as more lives are lost due to heat waves, the amount of climate pollution accumulated in the atmosphere, the United States has been hit by what could be the two most expensive hurricanes on record and the country, which will meet in Baku, Azerbaijan next week for climate talks, have failed to take strong action to change this reality.
Trump, who has branded climate change a “hoax,” withdrew the US from the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement during his first term. He has vowed to do it again, calling a global plan to reduce carbon emissions unenforceable and a gift to China and other big polluters. Trump also vowed to end subsidies for wind power included in his landmark 2022 climate law. He said he would eliminate the Biden administration’s regulations to improve the energy efficiency of light bulbs, stoves, dishwashers and showers.
Trump has summed up his energy policy as “drill, baby, drill” and promised to dismantle what Democrats call the “new green scam” to increase the production of fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas and coal, the main cause of climate change.
Dan Jasper, senior policy advisor at Project Drawdown, said he also expects “significant climate policy rollbacks at the national level,” but that climate action will continue to advance at the state and local levels. And, he said, repealing parts of the climate law could backfire because most of the investment and jobs are in Republican congressional districts. This is expected to reduce US emissions by approximately 40% by 2030, if the legislation is implemented as planned in subsequent years.
In a call Wednesday morning, Scott Segal, head of the communications group at the law firm Bracewell LLP, which represents the energy industry, said the climate law will not be repealed.
If Trump targets climate law, there are provisions that might be safe. One is the credit given to companies in advanced manufacturing, because they are considered “American-first and pro-US businesses,” said David Shepheard, a partner and energy expert at global consultancy Baringa. on climate policy, he added.
More vulnerable is a rule from the EPA, announced in April, that will force many coal-fired power plants to capture 90% of their carbon emissions or shut down within eight years, Shepheard said. The EPA’s analysis estimates it will reduce about 1.38 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide by 2047, along with tens of thousands of tons of other harmful air pollutants.
Under a Trump presidency, it’s unlikely to survive, Shepheard said.
Trump’s victory means the Justice Department cannot defend EPA rules that limit greenhouse gas emissions from power plants and oil rigs. Republican-controlled industry and state groups have filed legal challenges to some of the EPA’s rules.
While it’s unclear who will lead the EPA under Trump, the agency is expected to begin the long process of repealing and replacing many of the standards imposed by Biden with looser regulations, including one for tailpipe emissions that Trump called an electric vehicle “mandate.” .″ Trump rolled back more than 100 environmental laws as president and that number will grow in his second term.
Trump will almost certainly restore drilling in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, continuing a decades-long partisan battle. Biden and other Democratic presidents have blocked drilling in the vast refuge, which is home to polar bears, caribou and other wildlife. Trump reinstated the drilling program in the 2017 tax cut law passed by congressional Republicans. Even so, there is no drilling in the shelter.
“Elections have consequences. And in the short term, we will see many impacts of the program on the climate,” said Zara Ahmed, who leads policy analysis and science strategy at Carbon Direct, on Wednesday.
He predicted the withdrawal of proposed and existing regulations, a withdrawal from US leadership on climate including withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and changes to the Inflation Reduction Act.
Ahmed added that while there may be an abdication of leadership at the federal level on climate, he is optimistic that states including California continue to lead in setting standards, pushing emissions disclosures and driving decarbonization.
Clean Air Force Executive Director Armond Cohen agreed Wednesday that states, cities, utilities and businesses that have committed to zero emissions will continue to meet that goal, which will continue to drive record wind and solar energy installations. Governors from both parties are also interested in ramping up nuclear energy as a carbon-free source of electricity, Cohen said.
Trump has said he also wants to develop next-generation nuclear reactors that are smaller than traditional reactors.
Gina McCarthy, a former EPA administrator who served as Biden’s first national climate adviser, said Trump would not be able to stop clean energy such as wind, solar and geothermal power.
“No matter what Trump says, the shift to clean energy is unstoppable and our country will not back down,” McCarthy said. Advocates for clean energy are bipartisan, well-organized “and fully prepared to deliver climate solutions, boost local economies, and drive climate ambitions,” he said. “We cannot and will not allow Trump to stand in the way of giving our children and grandchildren the freedom to grow up in a safer and healthier community.”
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McDermott reported from Providence, RI
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