Donald Trump and the Republican Party will begin the week of the convention with a narrow but consistent advantage in the battleground states, which will translate into a better position for Trump to win the current Electoral College.
It means that it has not changed since immediately after debatewhile sentiment has shifted slightly toward Trump, it remains a fairly stable contest in that respect.
These polls and estimates were completed earlier take on Trump’s rally Saturday in Pennsylvania.
These state-level estimates come from CBS News’ statistical modelsbased on a survey of voters in seven warring countries.
As has been the case for months, Trump benefited from a larger percentage of Republicans who said they would vote for him than Democrats who said they would vote for him this year.
Across the battlefield, Mr. Biden continues to draw heavily among voters who don’t think he has the cognitive and mental health to serve.
Despite positive macroeconomic measures and news about the US economyonly half of voters say their own financial situation is good, and Trump benefits from winning the votes of those who speak income has not kept up with inflation.
The national picture: Biden and the Democrats
Meanwhile, in our separate national survey that takes a look at the Democrats and looks ahead to what the Republicans want at the convention:
This week, there was no ongoing discussion about whether Mr. Biden should step aside as the party’s nominee, or whether he could withdraw from the idea, not bothering with the topic.
Almost half of Democrats say they should — just higher than before the debate.
When Democratic voters were asked to be campaign strategists, there was no consensus on how hypothetical candidate Kamala Harris would fare in the election.
But their views on it are closely related to their views on Mr. Biden: those who think Harris would do better against Trump should probably back Mr. Biden.
Trump and the VP
In another sign of how this is the party of Donald Trump: after exploring through the primaries, there is more satisfaction among the rank-and-file Republicans with having Trump as the nominee today than there was when he first won the nomination in 2016. Twice as much. Republicans are more happy now than ever.
With Trump expected to soon reveal his choice of running mate, Republican voters will generally be satisfied – but not necessarily enthusiastic – about some of the news being considered. Many voters were not convinced, which was not surprising before the convention.
(Nikki Haley, who is reportedly not on the list, will cause discontent and will disappoint MAGA Republicans.)
The candidate’s prospects may be looking up, but Republicans continue to be suspicious of the election process.
Half of the party has said it will challenge the results if Trump does not win this year.
As they have done since the last election, the majority of Republicans do not believe that Biden was legitimately elected in 2020, and most believe that there was widespread fraud in the vote.
Overall, attention to the campaign remained strong after the debate, with about six in 10 registered voters saying they are thinking “a lot” about the 2024 race now.
The above data and results are based on the following:
Battleground states survey: This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a representative sample of 1,093 registered voters living in battleground states interviewed between July 5-12, 2024. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, and education, based on the Survey American Communities US Census and Current Population Survey, as well as past polls. The margin of error for the total sample is ±3.4 points. Battlegrounds: AZ GA MI NC NV PA WI.
Estimated statewide vote choice: CBS statistical models applied multilevel regression with post-stratification to generate estimates of two-way support in each battleground state, combining survey responses, voter files, and US Census data, as well as past voting by state.
National survey: This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a representative sample of 2,004 registered voters nationwide interviewed between July 10-13, 2024. The data includes an oversample of self-identified Republicans. The sample is weighted by gender, age, race, and education, based on the US Census American Community Survey and the Current Population Survey, as well as past votes. The margin of error for the total sample is ±2.8 points.
Anthony Salvanto
