Among all the factors in the minds of voters in this election, former President Donald Trump guilty verdict pales in comparison to issues like the economy, inflation, and the border – all items on which Trump maintains an advantage. So, the ruling didn’t dramatically change the race.
But what we’re seeing is some Joe Biden voters being turned on by the opposition Trump. His election has become increasingly focused on anti-Trump sentiment, more so than Mr. Biden himself. Now, most of Mr. Biden’s voters say the main reason is to oppose Trump, and have since March.
Whether these dynamics are enough to support Mr. Biden is one of the main questions of this campaign – a contest that is now related to the choice of voters, both nationally and in states of collective war.
Among Trump voters, the verdict was a wash. Some say that this is the reason to show them supportsome say they support him, and many say it doesn’t matter.
A majority said Trump’s beliefs were not a factor in the election decision. In fact, the try ranked lower as a factor when considered on its own than every other issue tested.
Most of Mr. Biden’s voters now say the main reason is to oppose Trump, not because they like Mr. Biden – an increase in this rationale since March.
(Mr. Biden used this kind of sentiment in 2020 also, because of the large number depicted in many warring countries that year.)
In addition, we see the dynamic again in how people make voting decisions, along the lines of whether this election is a referendum or a choice.
When people say this election is all about how Trump looks, most vote for Mr. Biden.
However, when people even see this race as a punishment only against Mr. Biden, they vote for Trump.
And when they make a comparison between the two, more people vote for Trump than Mr. Biden.
Here’s why a direct comparison now favors Trump:
Trump surpasses Mr. Biden on various qualities such as being seen as effective, tough, energetic and – more narrowly – competent. In addition, more people think that Trump has a vision of where he wants to lead the country.
Mr. Biden is better at personal happiness and is perceived as compassionate. But that likability gap doesn’t match the vote choice, because many people who personally dislike Trump voted for Trump.
And this is what partly isolated Trump after the impeachment verdict: many of his supporters, and the Republican base, have seen the cost as not serious and trying to be politically motivated.
In fact, most Republicans believe that the prosecution in New York was not done at the discretion of the New York prosecutors, but at the direction of the Biden administration. Looking forward, if he is elected, these views may have implications for what Trump wants. Half of Republicans want Trump to retaliate against his political opponents by investigating and bringing criminal charges against them — a number that is rising among MAGA Republicans.
Borders and immigration
There is overwhelming support for the new Mr. Biden executive order dealing with the border, including from most Republicans, but despite that, voters who put a high priority on the border are backing Trump by a large margin.
Voters still tend to think migrant crossings will drop even more under Trump.
Meanwhile, Trump has talked about what he would do to immigration if elected to a second term, including deportation efforts.
Almost a six in 10 majority of voters said they would vote, in principle, for a new government program to kick them all out undocumented immigrants living in the US illegally.
(This is not purely partisan, including a third of Democrats. It increases to nine in 10 Republicans.)
A similar-sized majority would have local law enforcement try to identify people living in the US illegally, and only half supported the idea of ​​creating a large government detention center to sort people for deportation.
Voting groups and main reasons: Who supports whom?
The national economic outlook is now more negative than it was in March, and voters’ financial concerns continue to weigh on Trump’s support. This, despite the number of positive macros project report and the stock market.
But inflation — a likely proxy term for still-high prices — continues to influence voters.
Trump rose by more than 2 to 1 among those who say more prices have difficulty. And Trump leads Mr. Biden big among those who say the economy is a major factor in their vote.
More think they would be better off financially with Trump in office than with Mr. Biden.
Nationally, Mr. Biden’s support from some key segments of his base has been rising since March, including women. More women now cite abortion as a major factor in their vote than they did in March and that was even greater for Mr. Biden.
The president’s support among black voters continued to lag his 2020 performance, but has improved since the spring. More Black voters now say the fight for people like them than they said in March.
Mr. Biden has fared slightly better with independents compared to the last national poll in early March. (Given that time frame, it’s unclear when that change will happen.) That said, there is some anti-Trump sentiment among independents who now support Mr. Biden. A larger majority now does so in opposition to Trump.
But Mr. Biden does not have a significant advantage among Hispanics, a group he won easily in 2020. Hispanic voters are more likely to think it would be better financially if Trump wins than Mr. Biden.
Trump continues to do well with White voters without a college degree and with older voters, the group that supported him in 2016 and 2020. And despite speculation about an “anti-Trump” vote in the GOP primaries, more than nine out of 10 Republicans support him. Trump, the same number of Democrats who support Mr. Biden.
Much of the same pattern plays out in warring countries.
Nationally, Republicans have a voting advantage to help Trump, but in battleground states, Democrats and Republicans are almost equally likely to say they will vote, perhaps because the campaign is trying to activate voters there.
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 2,063 US adults interviewed between June 5-7, 2024. The data includes an oversample in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The sample is weighted by gender, age, race, and education, based on the US Census American Community Survey and the Current Population Survey, as well as past votes. The margin of error is ±3.2 points among all adults and ±3.8 points among registered voters.
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