The following is a transcript of an interview with retired General Frank McKenzie, former commander of US forces in the Middle East, on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan” that aired on October 6, 2024.
MARGARET BRENNAN: To discuss the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, we turn now to retired General Frank McKenzie, who is the former commander of US forces in the Middle East. It’s good to have you back with us, General, we see-
GENERAL FRANK MCKENZIE: Welcome, Margaret.
MARGARET BRENNAN: We saw the US and Israel say there will be severe consequences for what Iran did with the 180 missiles fired at Israel, President Biden said he does not support an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, and he will think about it. about alternative targets for oil fields. What do you expect the US to do, and what do you expect to happen in the next few days?
GEN. MCKENZIE: Well, Margaret, let’s start by saying Iran is a country on the corner. The attack on Israel a few nights ago was unsuccessful. Its main ally in the region, Hezbollah, has been cut off, and its own offensive capabilities are limited. Hezbollah is gravely limited. So Iran is on the back heels. Israel has many options here. They can choose for something that will be very escalatory in terms of attacks on the Supreme Leader himself, perhaps, or on the nuclear program, or on the oil infrastructure, or they can look at military intelligence targets. They have a wide variety of options to choose from. They have the ability to carry out these attacks, I will say this, a nuclear target is a very difficult target. It’s big and complicated. I got hold of that plan when I was the commander of the central command. I understand very well. There are many other alternatives to that target that you might pursue first, then resist if you enter the escalation ladder with the Iranians. But the Israelis will certainly repeat it, and I predict it will be even bigger than the highly modulated response they withheld in April after a major Iranian attack on Israel.
MARGARET BRENNAN: You heard the Republican Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee did not advocate for attacks on nuclear facilities, but said it should not be taken off the table. It has been widely reported for some time, General that only the United States can effectively take out the underground facilities that Iran has. Is it still like that?
GEN. MCKENZIE: Well, let me start by saying that you’re not going to take any potential targets off the menu. You want your opponent to plan to defend everything. So giving help and not knowing and not having to defend against a certain target is probably not the best way to establish this kind of deterrence. Having said that, the Iranian nuclear target is a very difficult target, we have special capabilities that allow us to achieve it. Israelis do not have all these capabilities. He could certainly destroy this target if he chose, if he chose to attack. But again, because of its size, complexity and scope and how it has expanded over the last 10 years, these targets are very difficult to achieve. It will be very resource intensive, and I only, I would argue, only from a purely military point of view, perhaps there are more productive targets to hit in the initial response.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Do you want to give me some options?
GEN. MCKENZIE: Well, again, you know, we talked about a few things. I think oil infrastructure is definitely a possibility. And the oil infrastructure can be very large. You can see the refineries, you can see the storage facilities, you can see the location where the oil has been unloaded onto the ship. So in the oil target, it is not monolithic. You can- you can be escalatory or less escalatory, when you see the target there. This may have to be looked at, but I will tell you something else, Margaret, which is that the Iranians are making a big show of targeting the Mossad headquarters in the city of Tel Aviv. Israel certainly has the ability to go after the IRGC, Islamic Republic Guard Corps headquarters and intelligence buildings throughout Tehran or elsewhere. Again, as we have known since April, Israel has the ability to operate not with impunity, but with great force in Iran at the time and place of its choosing. And I’m sure they’re thinking about all those options right now.
MARGARET BRENNAN: There’s also the risk of unintended consequences, because you’ve seen Iran as a corner here, are you concerned that this could be something that will lead to them pursuing nuclear weapons? He has presented himself with options, but he has never pursued them in the way that US intelligence has told him that the top leadership must make the decisions that must be made. Could this be the triggering event?
GEN. MCKENZIE: Margaret, I’m sure the Iranians are having fun with the breakout, with getting the fissile material to make the bomb to extract concessions from us, because we’re dancing, we’re desperate to make an agreement with them. nuclear issue, so they know they can get things from us. They also know that once you cross that line, you can’t go back. It is a Rubicon that can no longer be crossed. But even if they, even if they develop fissile material, which they can do, in a few days or weeks, they still have delivery problems. They need to build missiles and entry systems that allow them to take missiles to Tel Aviv or any target they choose. It’s been months, and it’s the valley of death for Iran, because during that time, they’re going to go nuclear, and they’re going to be vulnerable. It is not a matter of physics, it is a matter of aeronautical engineering, and the aeronautical engineering system in Iran will be vulnerable to attack. So it’s not as easy as you might imagine if they just announced, you know, we’re going nuclear, or nuclear. They have to balance a few things while doing it.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Context is important. If I may ask you, sir, former President Trump, as you know, faced constant assassination threats in retaliation for ordering the assassination of Qassim Soleimani, the Iranian general. You play a key role in it, and I know you also face threats. Mr. Trump recently said, the big threat in my life by Iran. The US military is all watching and waiting. The Biden White House condemned the threat, but some Republicans said it was not loud enough. How do you think this should be posted? Do you think Iran got the message not to do it?
GEN. MCKENZIE: So when we look at Iran, we have to look at what their underlying motivations are. The main goal of the Iranian state is to maintain the regime. They see the election of President Trump as a direct threat to the preservation of the regime. So I have no doubt that Iran is very active in its efforts to go after the former president, as well as other officials, which I am very interested in, also very interested in. But I think that’s what caused his behavior. Desperate. Margaret, it was really the same desperation that drove the massive attack on Israel three or four nights ago. He was in a corner and really didn’t have a good choice, but he didn’t want to sit back and do nothing. They see President Trump as worse than the alternatives they could choose.
MARGARET BRENNAN: General, thank you for your analysis.
