From CLIMATE REALISM
By H. Sterling Burnett
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) published an article titled “Climate Change Is Coming for the Finer Things in Life,” which stated that by causing “wonky weather,” climate change is disrupting crop production for a variety of crops. This story is false on two counts: First, there is no evidence of climate change causing wonky weather or changing weather trends at all; second, the yield and production of each crop discussed in the story has grown dramatically during the new period of modest warmth regularly set records. If anything, climate change has led to more grapes (and wine), olives (and olive oil), coffee, and chocolate.
“As the world warms, extreme weather disrupts the production of some good pleasures — wine, olive oil, coffee, and chocolate,” writes Jon Emont for the WSJ. “Some of these crops are concentrated in one or two regions, which means that bad weather in one part of the world can have a dizzying effect on global prices.”
Real world data is shown in Climate at a Glance, refers to droughts, heat waves, floods, tropical cyclones, and wildfires, or various other extreme weather events or impacts yet to be “wonky”. Such events are no more frequent, intense, or unpredictable than before. And, plants and pollinators are good. So, apart from the normal ups and downs farmers have always experienced historically not unusual weather wise. Hundreds of posts on Climate Realism confirm that weather trends are not worsening and crop growth is increasing, including for crops and regions covered by the WSJ, such as Vietnam and West Africa.
Regarding the crops discussed, agricultural production is always more or less dependent on the weather. So, the production of olives and the related olive oil may decline in a year or two, the same as wine and grapes, coffee, and chocolate, but for climate change to cause a decline, you need to look at long-term trends. or two years of weather is not evidence of climate change making.
Let’s take a look at the crop data to see what trends exist, if any, that Emont or the WSJ don’t. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations maintains a database of global agricultural production and shows that every crop and product discussed by Emont in his erroneous WSJ post has repeatedly set new records for yield and production during the past three decades of climate change. Between 1990 and 2022, the most recent year for which data is available, FAO data shows, olive production increased by about 138 percent, and yields increased by about 61 percent. At the same time, olives set a new production record for the 11th time, with the latest record in 2018, with the second highest production year in 2020. The olive harvest recorded the eighth record since 1990. Although not all olives are used to make. olive oil, olive oil trends are the same. Between 1990 and 2021, the last year of FAO data, olive oil production increased by more than 124 percent. (See chart below)
As dozens of Climate Realism posts have been shown before, is it true that olives are true of wine, chocolate, and coffee as well.
About chocolate and coffee, since 1990:
- Cocoa bean production only set the latest record in 2022;
- World production of cocoa beans increased by 132 percent;
- West African cocoa bean production has increased by 167 percent;
- World coffee production sets new record in 2020;
- World coffee production increased by 77 percent.
Data shows that wine and grape production has increased significantly since 1990 as well, as detailed in Climate Realism article, here, here, and here, for example.
Emont and WSJ try to hoodwink the reader by ignoring production and yield data and using instead price data on these crops as a proxy for availability. Of course, the prices of wine/wine, olives/olive oil, chocolate/chocolate, and coffee have increased dramatically in recent years, but not because of a lack of supply, but because of high inflation and supply chain problems. each other is good and the service has been. Inflation has led to a sharp price increase in almost all goods and services from 2021. Indeed, rather than climate change, President Joe Biden’s climate and energy policies, and the energy and climate policies of other countries, are more to blame for higher food prices. prices by increasing the price of fossil fuels, which are essential for fertilizers, pesticides, and transportation fuels used to plant, grow, harvest, and deliver crops to market.
Nest time, Emont and WSJ, if you want to warn of climate change leading to impending product shortages, you should check to see if the product in question is actually in short supply. If it is in a year, you should see that the shortage is part of an extended trend. Prices are driven by a lot of things. I don’t know if climate change is causing the price spike. The recent price increase has been driven by government policy not climate change and has nothing to do with crop availability.
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