A new subvariant of COVID-19 dubbed FLiRT continues to gain dominance nationwide, leading to an increase in cases in Los Angeles County and growth in the level of the coronavirus seen in California wastewater.
Taken together, the data suggest a resurgence of the coronavirus in the Golden State — which, while unexpected given trends seen in previous pandemic-era summers, has arrived earlier and is driven by a more transmissible strain than previously seen.
It’s unclear how the COVID situation could play out this summer. Doctors say that by the Fourth of July, we might feel better about the rest of the season.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that the FLiRT subvariants – officially known as KP.3, KP.2 and KP.1.1 – made up a combined 62.9% of specimens nationwide for the two-week period ending Saturday. That’s up from 45.3% last month.
Experts say the new subvariant is more contagious than the winter-dominant subvariant, JN.1.
California is now one of 15 states with high or very high levels of coronavirus in sewage, according to the CDC. These states are mostly in the West and South, as well as New England. Besides California, they are Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming.
The level of Coronavirus in California’s wastewater as a whole has increased significantly since early May, in contrast to the national trend, which shows a slower increase. California’s latest weekly wastewater virus activity levels are near the peak seen last summer.
In Santa Clara County, the most densely populated Northern California, wastewater levels are considered high around Silicon Valley, from San José to Palo Alto.
Coronavirus levels in LA County wastewater have largely remained stable after rising last month. For the week ending June 8, the latest available, the level in sewage was at 15% of the peak from the 2022-23 season – up from 13% the week before, but down slightly from 16% the week before. Late summer peaked at the end of the season, when sewage levels were at 38% of the 2022-23 winter high.
Reported cases of COVID-19 continue to rise. For the seven-day period that ended June 16, there was an average of 154 per day reported in LA County, up from 121 the previous week. The reported cases are an undercount, as they only represent tests performed in medical facilities, and do not include home tests. They also don’t reflect that fewer people are testing for COVID when they’re sick.
The average daily number of COVID-19 patients in LA County hospitals has also increased. There were an average of 138 per day for the week ending June 15, up from 126 the previous week.
COVID deaths remained stable, at less than one per day, on average, for the week ending May 28.
The percentage of COVID tests at California medical facilities that come back with positive results continues to rise. For the week ending June 17, 7.5% of COVID tests statewide came back positive, higher than the 3.1% rate from last month. Last summer’s peak was 13.1%, recorded at the end of August.
The California Department of Public Health in June updated its guidance for the elderly, “especially those with weakened immune systems.” Officials urge parents to stay up-to-date on vaccines, seek medication if sick with COVID, and consider additional precautions, such as wearing a mask in crowded indoor areas, opening windows and doors to increase ventilation, staying away from sick people, washing. hands often, and cover coughs and sneezes.
The surge in certain coronavirus tracking data comes as the US Food and Drug Administration in mid-June released new advice to vaccine manufacturers. In a statement on June 13, the agency asked manufacturers, if possible, to design vaccine formulas this fall against KP.2 – one of the subvariants of FLiRT – instead of its parent, JN.1.
The new recommendation exceeds the guidance from just a week ago, when the agency had recommended a vaccine designed against JN.1.
“These changes are intended to ensure that the COVID-19 vaccine (formula 2024-2025) is better suited to the circulating SARS-CoV-2 strain,” the FDA said in a statement, referring to the official name of the COVID-19 virus.
This fall, the existing subvariants of COVID “may be closer to KP.2 than, perhaps, JN.1,” said Dr. Peter Marks, director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, at a press briefing Friday.
The mRNA-based vaccine, made by Pfizer and Moderna, will be able to produce a shot this fall for KP.2. But the protein-based vaccine, made by Novavax, will still be designed against JN.1 – as the manufacturing of the mRNA vaccine can be done faster, said Marks.
“What you can do when you’re making a protein-based vaccine versus an mRNA vaccine is different in terms of how well you react to what you’re going to do,” Marks said. However, the difference between getting a vaccine designed against the newer KP.2 subvariant versus the slightly older JN.1 subvariant may not make a “big difference.”
“We’re not going to have a choice,” Marks said, about recommending Pfizer’s or Moderna’s vaccines over Novavax. “The best vaccine to get into this fall is the one you put in your arm.”
Marks said the vaccine designed against KP.2 “perhaps brings a little benefit” over the one against JN.1. “By basically using the latest updates, we hope to provide protection immunity that will last longer,” said Marks, in late fall and winter.
“It’s like trying to give someone the best, right? That extra hundredth of a second you win (the race),” Marks said. “But I think the most important thing for people to understand is that, either way, one of these is a good thing to get.”
Federal officials have expressed hope that the COVID vaccine will be available earlier this year rather than in 2023. Last year’s rollout was complicated by the fact that the updated COVID vaccine came out slightly earlier than the seasonal flu shot, making it harder for people to get both vaccinations. visit them if they have liked that.
COVID-19 continues to be a disease to watch out for, doctors say. About 45,000 COVID deaths have been reported since October 1 in the country, and doctors say those most at risk are the elderly and immunocompromised who have not received the latest vaccinations.
“It’s not just going out at night. It’s hanging out,” Marks said.
