Roger Caiazza
New York City Local Law 97 (LL97) mandates that “general buildings over 25,000 square feet must meet new energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emission limits by 2024, with stricter limits taking effect in 2030.” Rich Ellenbogen explained that the figures supporting Local Law 97 underestimated the emissions of the electric grid between 39% and 47% and used the wrong emission numbers to calculate penalties and as a basis for the efficiency of the electric grid. The basis of this article is a series of emails from Ellenbogen.
Ellenbogen is the President (BIO) of Allied Converters and often copies my emails dealing with various issues related to the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (Climate Act). I have published another article by Ellenbogen including a description of her keynote address to the New York Business Council 2023 Energy Renewable Energy Conference titled: “Delivered Energy is the Lifeblood of Business and Entrepreneurship in the State – video here: Why NY State Needs to Rethink its Energy Plan and Ten Tips to Help Fix the Problem”. He came to the table as an engineer who truly cared about the environment and was an early adopter of renewable technology going back to the 1990s in his home and business twenty years ago.
Law 97
The goal of LL97 to reduce emissions produced by the largest buildings in the city which is 40 percent in 2030 and net zero in 2050. Like New York Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (Climate Act) this is political theater without regard to practicality. Last July I published an article here explaining the assessment by Ellenbogen, Francis Menton, and myself that the supporting documentation for LL97 is less than what is needed to provide New York City (NYC) residents in affected buildings with assurance that LL97 mandates can be met at the same time the Climate Act is transforming the electric energy system with the deployment of wind, solar power, and energy storage and unproven resources. This means it’s an incredible risk to keep warm in the winter in NYC. Ellenbogen notes a specific case where the number is incorrect in this post.
Issue
In this section I will document Ellenbogen’s critique reformatted from an email to a blog post.
LL97 uses a bogus metric to calculate carbon emissions. Contrary to what they claim, increasing the amount of energy required to run a building. The city’s electricity is 91% fossil fuel generated. For the foreseeable future, all electric heat will operate from the most efficient fossil fuel plants operating at 33% efficiency. After about 7% line loss, that 30% is efficiently sent to the building. Some remote generation will burn oil with a 50% higher GHG footprint than natural gas and higher NOx, SOx, and PM2.5 emissions. Although the heat pump is 280% efficient, the holistic efficiency is 84%, at least 5% – 10% cheaper than just installing gas combustion on site with high efficiency which will operate with a net efficiency between 90% – 95%. Do they think that distant carbon emissions from NYC buildings won’t affect climate change?
The figures supporting Local Law 97 underestimate electricity grid emissions by between 39% and 47%. By making the electric utility system look “greener” they provide a false basis for all laws.
If you look at the image below, taken from page 36 (link), you will see in clause 1 that it uses 0.000288962 tCO2e per KWh (metric ton / Kwh). Note that the documents in the link are not downloadable which makes it very difficult for people to challenge the content. This value equals 0.288962 tCO2e per Megawatt Hour (MWh) which can be converted (0.288962 x 2203 pounds per metric ton) to 636.5 pounds per MWh used as the basis for utility system emissions in LL97.
Source: §28-320.3.1.1 Greenhouse gas energy consumption coefficient
However, if you look at the Table below from the US EPA, highlighted in yellow is the actual emissions between 886.6 pounds per MWH and 973 pounds per MWh in NY City and Westchester. So the actual utility emissions are between 39% and 47% higher than what the city used to calculate the policy values and associated fines.
Source: EPA Summary Data: eGRID 2022 Summary Table, abbreviated as Table 1
The numbers used for future emissions are also problematic. The 636.5 kilograms per MWh used in the LL97 document drops to 319 kilograms/MWh in 2030 – 2034 (converted from the value of 0.000145 listed in the quote below) which is half of the 2024 value. There is no explanation of what is expected it will be done when it is generally known that all the install numbers that can be updated are pushed back. He started from a wrong number in favor of more than 40% and it only got worse from there.
Source: 1 RCNY §103-14, CHAPTER 100 Subchapter C Building Maintenance, page 12.
The figures used to calculate the district’s vapor emissions relative to gas emissions in the document are purely fantasy. New York City has an extensive steam system with over 100 miles of pipes that carry steam from central factories to buildings in Manhattan. A problem not recognized in LL97 is that there are significant energy losses in steam systems. Because of the age and size of the system they throw hot water at the end of the loop, leaky pipes (as exemplified by puffs of good steam coming out of the manholes), and they have miles of high temperature steam lines dissipating energy. before it is sent so that there is a significant loss. However, LL97 calculations state that district steam with a GHG footprint of 15% is lower than 90% – 95% efficient on-site gas combustion. LL97 uses the following assumptions for building emissions taken from §28-320.3.1.1 Greenhouse gas energy consumption coefficient 36:
2) Gas 0.00005311 tCO2e per KWh or 399 lb. CO2e per MWh
5) Steam 0.00004493 tCO2e per KWh or 338 lb. CO2e per MWh
He did everything in his power to make the gas look bad.
Source: §28-320.3.1.1 Greenhouse gas energy consumption coefficient
Even funnier is the clause in section 28-320.6.3 also copied below regarding false statements intended for buildings that misreport emissions. What they are saying is that the city blatantly lied about the policy, but they will hold you accountable for up to $500,000 and jail for up to 30 days if you do.
Source: §28-320.3.1.1 Greenhouse gas energy consumption coefficient
Conclusion
Basically, whoever wrote this document just pulled numbers out of thin air. It’s a total fabrication. If you can easily find obvious mistakes in the main part of the document, there is nothing to trust. Everything is skewed to correct the worldview and wisdom of people’s desires. Because of these false numbers, buildings in NY City will be saddled with technologies that do not produce emission savings and at the same time will cause higher operating costs, in addition to huge capital installation costs.
For those of us who have analyzed this and know the numbers, it has been clear for years that all the policies, in LL97 and the Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act are fabrications. The numbers just prove it.
Roger Caiazza blogs about New York’s energy and environmental issues at New York’s Pragmatic Environmentalist. It represents his opinion and not the opinion of his previous employer or any other organization he was associated with.
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