From CERES-Science
The CERES team
CERES co-team leader, Dr. Willie Soon was the keynote speaker at Clintel’s 5th Anniversary Congress on June 18, 2024. That’s the recording of his welcome. Below you can find a summary of the presentation and details about the peer-reviewed papers referred to in the talk.
Summary of the presentation
In this talk, Dr. Soon discusses the main fundamental problems with the “detection and attribution” of global warming by United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report that the media didn’t tell you. The IPCC’s “detection and attribution” process is the entire basis of why the IPCC concludes (using computer models) that global warming is mostly caused by humans. We found that the IPCC analysis was scientifically flawed due to major problems in (a) the thermometer record and (b) the total solar irradiance database.
Dr. Soon explained that the current global temperature record adopted by the IPCC report has been contaminated by urbanization bias. When we eliminated this major flaw, we made a record of the temperature in the countryside which was then adopted to re-examine the attribution problem. We find that the IPCC’s approach in attribution is very selective and rather non-scientific as evidenced in the recommendation of one choice of sunlight factors. In contrast, we show that there are at least two dozen correct estimates of solar irradiance that are appropriately de-selected by the IPCC team. However, when one applies some of these solar irradiance estimates, we find that rural temperature records can only be explained mostly by the solar forcing factor.
These results directly challenge the IPCC’s iconic assertion that the warming observed since the 1950s is primarily human-caused.
Slides can be downloaded here:
Our peer-reviewed scientific papers are mentioned in the conversation
- W. Rauh, R. Connolly, M. Connolly, S.-I. Akasofu, S. Baliunas, J. Berglund, A. Bianchini, WM Briggs, CJ Butler, RG Cionco, M. Crok, AG Elias, VM Fedorov, F. Gervais, H. Harde, GW Henry, DV Hoyt, O. Humlum , DR Legates, AR Lupo, S. Maruyama, P. Moore, M. Ogurtsov, C. Ă“hAiseadha, MJ Oliveira, S.-S. Park, S. Qiu, G. Quinn, N. Scafetta, J.-E. Solheim, J. Steele, L. Szarka, HL Tanaka, MK Taylor, F. Vahrenholt, VM Velasco Herrera and W. Zhang (2023). “Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850–2018) in terms of Human and Natural Factors: The Challenge of Inadequate Data”, climate11(9), 179; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11090179.
- R. Connolly, W. Soon, M. Connolly, S. Baliunas, J. Berglund, CJ Butler, RG Cionco, AG Elias, V. Fedorov, H. Harde, GW Henry, DV Hoyt, O. Humlum, DR Legates, N. Scafetta, J.-E. Solheim, L. Szarka, VM Velasco Herrera, H. Yan and WJ Zhang (2023). “Challenges in the detection and attribution of Northern Hemisphere surface temperature trends since 1850”. Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics. https://doi.org/10.1088/1674-4527/acf18e. Additive.
- P. O’Neill, R. Connolly, M. Connolly, W. Soon, B. Chimani, M. Crok, R. de Vos, H. Harde, P. Kajaba, P. Nojarov, R. Przybylak, D. Rasol , Oleg Skrynyk, Olesya Skrynyk, P. Ĺ tÄ›pánek, A. Wypych and P. ZahradnĂÄŤek (2022). Evaluation of homogenization adjustments applied to European temperature records in the Global Historical Climatology Network dataset. atmosphere 13(2), 285; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13020285.
- G. Katata, R. Connolly and P. O’Neill (2023). Evidence of urban mixing in homogeneous temperature records in Japan and the United States: implications for the reliability of global land surface air temperature data. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-22-0122.1.
- R. Connolly, W. Soon, M. Connolly, S. Baliunas, J. Berglund, CJ Butler, RG Cionco, AG Elias, VM Fedorov, H. Harde, GW Henry, DV Hoyt, O. Humlum, DR Legates, S . LĂĽning, N. Scafetta, J.-E. Solheim, L. Szarka, H. van Loon, VM Velasco Herrera, RC Willson, H. Yan and W. Zhang (2021). How much does the Sun affect Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate. Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics21, 131. https://doi.org/10.1088/1674-4527/21/6/131. Additional Materials are available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7088728.
Thanks to the camera crew organized by Clintel for the great camera work and video editing:
- Robbert Clignett: Camera en Montage
- Sylvester van Nieuwenhuijzen: Camera
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