After more than a year of spiraling conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, the guns will finally fall silent after President Joe Biden announced that a US-drafted cease-fire agreement would take effect on Wednesday.
If implemented, it would bring much-needed respite to Lebanon after months of relentless Israeli bombardment that has displaced some 1.2 million people and killed more than 3,750. In Israel, some 60,000 people displaced by the constant fire of Hezbollah rockets will be able to think about returning to their homes.
A ceasefire would also reduce the risk of Israel and Iran – Hezbollah’s patron – engaging in another direct conflict. At least for now.
It would reduce the danger of an all-out war in the Middle East, which has been pushed to the brink in nearly 14 months of escalating hostilities from Gaza to Beirut and Tehran.
But it can be peace – a band aid that can come at any moment.
The agreement, which began with an initial 60-day ceasefire, is based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701 which ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah but which neither side fully implemented.
Hezbollah forces had to withdraw from their strongholds in southern Lebanon and moved mostly north of the Litani River, which stretches up to 30 km from the border. Israel’s attacking forces will retreat to their side.
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The task of ensuring security in southern Lebanon and preventing the regrouping of Hezbollah will be carried out by soldiers from the Lebanese army and Unifil, the UN peacekeeping mission deployed along the border.
The two forces will also be expected to prevent Hezbollah from rearming with Iranian weapons smuggled in through Syria or across the sea.
But for the past two decades, neither the Lebanese army nor Unifil have had the mandate, capacity or will to prevent Hezbollah from doing as it pleases.
The only difference this time is that the agreement will include a strengthened US-led monitoring mechanism, which is supposed to deal with violations, although the details of how this will be done remain unclear.
Importantly, Israel has repeatedly said it will retain the right to strike unilaterally if it believes Hezbollah poses an imminent threat – essentially a green light to violate 1701 and act as an “enforcer” with US cover.
How Netanyahu acts will go a long way in determining the sustainability of the ceasefire. Israel made a similar threat in 2006, but now has a very different mindset.
At the time, many Israelis considered the military offensive a failure after Hezbollah fought the Middle East’s most sophisticated army to a standstill for 34 days.
Israel’s commanders resigned and the appointed government came under intense scrutiny because of criticism of the political and military leadership.
Israel is holding fire as a battered but re-energized Hezbollah takes control of southern Lebanon. Almost two decades of relative stability, despite both sides violating the agreement.
But after the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, Israel became more abrasive and willing to pre-emptively pursue the enemy on various fronts. The outcome of the war has buoyed Israel’s confidence and strengthened its sense of military and intelligence superiority, and it is in the ascendancy.
In particular, it has dealt a devastating blow to Hezbollah, which is often described as the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor but is now in a weaker position than it was in 2006.
Over 11 game-changing days in September, Israel decimated the group’s communication network by detonating thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies, killing the senior commander and leader of Hezbollah’s thirty, Hassan Nasrallah, and launched a ground invasion in the south.
The damage done to Hezbollah, then and since then, has left no doubt that he agreed to a deal before the ceasefire was guaranteed for Gaza, although he previously insisted that it would stop when the Israeli army no longer fights in the besieged strip.
The group will also be wary of US President-elect Donald Trump giving Netanyahu greater license to act as he re-enters the White House.
Hezbollah’s weakness also explains why it would accept a deal with an apparent Israeli bias, and why Netanyahu was willing to ink the deal despite opposition from far-right cabinet members.
This allows them to cheer for the outgoing president Biden, while looking at the return of Trump and expecting a more pro-Israel stance.
But with confidence comes the risk of hubris.
Despite the attacks, Hezbollah remains the dominant military and political force in Lebanon, a fractured and weak country.
It did not launch the scale of missile strikes on Israel that had been predicted when after months of border clashes Israel launched a full-scale attack, nor did it launch its most powerful precision-guided missiles.
Israeli officials say this is because the bombing of Lebanon has destroyed their stockpiles and their capacity to attack. However, others believe that the group is retaining some of its arsenal for another day.
The truth is probably somewhere in between. But Hezbollah continues to attack Israel and, with Iran’s support, will plan its restoration.
All this creates a flammable environment, and optimism about a ceasefire will be tempered by fear of what will happen next.
