Union Minister and BJP president JP Nadda with Home Minister Amit Shah presided over the Maharashtra BJP Core Committee meeting, in New Delhi on June 18, 2024. | Photo Credit: PTI
When examining the BJP’s poor performance in Maharashtra in the recent Lok Sabha polls, held on June 18 in New Delhi, top leaders from the party’s national and state units have some answers to share, even though the Assembly polls are just around the corner. a few months away.
According to sources present at the meeting, the seat-wise details, especially the losses in Vidarbha, Marathwada and Mumbai-Konkan, have been lost, micro data has been exchanged but there are three big narrative conundrums that are troubling the party in the state.
OBC vote
Manoj Jarange Patil’s agitation for Maratha reservation and the way Chief Minister Eknath Shinde (he is a Maratha) was handled, has caused a backlash among the OBC community, a dangerous sign for the BJP. Since the 1980s, the BJP has consistently worked to win the OBC vote through a combination of “MaDhaV” or the Malis, Dhangar and Vanjari communities.
Maratha reservation grants, specially giving OBC kunbi certificates to Marathas, violence caused by agitation in Marathwada and lack of voice for OBCs despite BJP’s dominant role in Mahayuthi-NDA government in the state made OBCs feel upset. with the BJP. The losses suffered in Marathwada, where Mr Jarange Patil’s agitation was particularly strong, saw the BJP lose all the four seats it contested in the region (Marathwada is said to have eight Lok Sabha seats). The party lost previously “safe” seats like Jalna and Beed too. While the loss in Vidarbha was caused by the perception that the BJP, which voted to return to power would end reservations, it was the reaction of the OBCs that was blamed for the BJP’s loss in Marathwada.
The BJP’s statement on June 19, that there is no discussion on who will be the chief ministerial candidate for Mahayuthi who will contest the Assembly polls in Maharashtra is an indication that the BJP is worried about losing its traditional vote bank.
Alliance countries
The Lok Sabha results also raised questions about the state of the Mahayuthi alliance. While Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena won seven Lok Sabha seats compared to BJP’s nine seats, Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) posted only one seat. This raises questions about the complementarity of vote banks, especially after reports emerged that the RSS, the ideological parent of the BJP, has serious reservations about its relationship with the NCP.
It is said that the opposition’s campaign against the BJP is a “washing machine” or that the party joining it will allow all the stains of corruption to be washed away, strengthened by the opportunistic alliance. BJP and RSS cadres, whose political career in Maharashtra has so far been defined by their anti-NCP-Congress views, are finding it difficult to make their way in campaigning for the party. While the Shiv Sena under Mr. Shinde is still an organic alliance for the BJP on Hindutva issues, with the NCP, the parties are struggling to complement each other, a conundrum that they will face in the Assembly polls.
The puzzle of Mumbai
The Mumbai region has 36 Assembly seats and is important in the Assembly polls as a cut of seats from here can make the difference between forming a government in the State and sitting down. The split in Shiv Sena and NCP will have its own implications in Mumbai, with Shiv Sena (UBT) winning three of its own seats out of six in the city, the silver lining for Mahayuthi is that out of a total of 12 Lok Sabha seats in the Mumbai-Konkan belt, it won seven. It has come under the spotlight that the Shiv Sena (UBT) with additional votes from minorities, along with the vote bank of traditional Marathi speakers is a formidable opponent. BJP has to work hard to go after Marathi speaking people and Hindutva vote bank and it counts.
The preliminary review held in New Delhi on June 18 is a start, but with so little time left, the lessons of the Lok Sabha polls need to be applied quickly, with less headroom than before.
