How do you see the latest developments and data points coming out in the Jharkhand and Maharashtra elections?
Swaminathan Aiyar: A fair warning to everyone is that exit polls continue to be wrong. Once in a blue moon, they were right. I mean, nothing is always wrong. But the record of exit polls is so poor that I would say exit polls are not something that informs, they entertain. It is an occasion for gup-shup (chit-chat) which can be this way or that way.
In Haryana, exit polls predicted a big victory for the Congress, only to see the opposite. BJP got a stunning victory. So, let’s see. We have different polls that have different predictions. Most of them in Maharashtra seem to think that the BJP-Shinde coalition will get away with it and the Uddhav Thackeray and Congress coalition will lose. But there are some others who think that the Congress might win.
In the case of Jharkhand, it seems to be more neck and neck. But I would say that the margin is such that we don’t jump to conclusions. Polls don’t make us any wiser, that’s all I’ll say. Either side can win. Looks like now, maybe BJP and its coalition have a better chance in Maharashtra, but I won’t vote for it. I would say keep the money back until we get results. The margins are too close and the polls are unreliable to draw conclusions from.
But let’s do some gup-shup on this and let’s see how the industry and the market will react to whatever they do on Saturday. Do you think that the return of the BJP-led alliance will give any indication of policy continuity and that there will be no stoppage of ongoing development and projects in the state?
Swaminathan Aiyar: I don’t think that the change of government means that all kinds of projects are stuck. Yes, some of the sweetheart projects are going to end, which is always the case when there is a transfer of power. But otherwise, it is quite normal in a democracy that the government changes and it does not mean that there are dangerous consequences. It did not happen in the past when Congress came to power and BJP or Shiv Sena came to power. It does not mean that there is any kind of collapse. There is enough continuity in the system to keep going. So, this is not a major problem.
But let’s see. For me, BJP’s shortcoming is that both partners are not grassroots parties, they are defector parties. The defector parties are not as good with the electorate as the grassroots parties. So, I would say that the two parent parties, the National Congress Party and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, are the grass roots. I personally think the Congress-Uddhav Thackeray coalition has an edge. But let’s wait and see. We will find out.Since you said the exit polls were nothing and since the forecast this time was going to be a close contest, what did you do or what was your opinion?
Swaminathan Aiyar: No, as in my opinion, I have a feeling that the Congress-India bloc will win in both the states. I think BJP-NDA will lose in both the states, that is my personal feeling. Of course, we have a situation where the BJP often loses elections, but then forms the government because it can get defectors. So, don’t dismiss it as a result, although it won’t be an immediate result, but it will be a result with a lag. I said that, while I think that the BJP has suffered electoral losses, I will not deny that it can come to power through defections.As you said, the grassroots government should win and maybe it will improve the voters and many believe that indeed the Congress-led party, at least in Maharashtra, will focus more on the rural areas and will try and sort of kick in the rural upliftment.
Swaminathan Aiyar: It will be headed by Uddhav Thackeray. It will not be led by Congress. I think it’s worth emphasizing that. The leader, the more important person is Uddhav Thackeray. Yes, Congress will also be an important coalition partner, but I have no doubt that if they come to power, Uddhav Thackeray will be the chief minister and not the Congress candidate. So, it will be led by Uddhav Thackeray.
While Congress wants to have various welfare, Eknath Shinde has also tried to have some programs for women, in addition to various gifts. Everyone participates in this special battle for prizes. I wouldn’t say one party is too far from another party. The Indian system is what it is, it doesn’t matter who wins. In economic policy, I expect continuity. There will be a certain amount of populist play to the gallery, but I focus on Maharashtra has always been construction and industry. I think that action will continue.
