With President Biden under pressure to drop his bid for a second term, his party has been pushed into uncharted territory, struggling with a long list of risks and rewards as it faces the prospect of replacing Mr. Biden less than two months before the party’s convention. .
No presumptive candidate withdrew at the end of the process. But neither party faced the challenges facing Democrats today: candidates of dubious mental acuity; the ability to beat his rival, former President Donald J. Trump; and fitness to serve another four years as president.
All of this has left Democrats struggling with a critical question: Is it easier to defeat Mr. Trump with or without Mr. Biden at the top of the ticket? Is it more risky to go with a new candidate or stick with a president who seems to be losing?
Some Democrats say that despite the risks, a new candidate could bring many benefits to the party, especially if Mr. Biden anoints a successor in an effort to ensure a smooth transition and reduce intraparty fighting.
A new generation of candidates can bring energy to the ticket. It will give the so-called double hate, voters are not happy with the rematch between the 81-year-old president and the 78-year-old former president, a new place can go this November. New candidates will certainly benefit from campaign contributions, at least initially.
“If you drive a car right off a cliff, there’s always a risk of it sliding to the right or to the left,” said Howard Wolfson, a Democratic consultant, who said he doubted Mr Biden could recover from last week’s halting debate performance. and proceeded to defeat Mr. Trump.
But other Democrats, including some who have advised Mr. Biden, say changing horses now could cause rifts and damage within the party. It can saddle the party with untested candidates and a logistical nightmare that will only increase the prospect of a Trump victory this fall.
“There are a lot of things that need to be done for God’s work to be done well,” said Stephanie Cutter, a Democratic consultant who also advises the Biden campaign but did not speak on his behalf.
Crash-Course Campaign
Biden’s late-stage replacement will be less well-known and less experienced on the national stage than either Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump — hurdles the newly-elected candidate will have to overcome.
Without the traditional primary, the candidates will be deprived of lessons in the field of being a presidential candidate: trained with questions from voters, learning the details of unknown regional issues and forming alliances with key players in each country. And they will not be subject to thorough vetting and examination – by voters, opponents and the media – records and political strengths and weaknesses.
Political leaders have seen the risk of turning in an unknown candidate in the last-minute vice-presidential election: Sarah Palin of Alaska, who was the running mate of John McCain in 2008, and Dan Quayle of Indiana, who was the running mate of George HW Bush in 1988. , both -both struggle and stumble during election season.
“Electing a new person is not without risk – that’s why many Democrats are reluctant to consider replacing Joe Biden on the ticket,” said Steve McMahon, a Democratic strategist who worked on the presidential campaign of former Governor Howard Dean of Vermont in 2004.
Republicans will not have it easy. Under normal circumstances, campaigns have months to conduct opposition research on their own candidates to ensure they are prepared for any attack.
But the Trump campaign has had enough time to put together an opposition research file of potentially damaging information for Mr. Biden’s successor, which he can use to determine before he has a chance to do so himself.
(“Was Kamala Harris the Best Invasion Czar?” the Trump campaign asked in an email sent Wednesday morning, a series of bulleted attacks, including her role in Mr. Biden’s immigration policy.)
That said, the great excitement of a new face – in a year when many voters have complained about a 2020 rerun – could give a real boost to the autumn campaign. And while the new candidate may be subject to damaging opposition research findings by Mr. Trump, there is less time for that information to be aired and incorporated.
A Fraught Process
There is no real playbook on how to replace a candidate who loses weeks before the convention. For some Democrats, the potential for chaos and division is reason enough for Mr. Biden to stay in the race.
One way to mitigate the disruption is for Mr. Biden to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris on her way out, which some Democrats objected to.
“The advantage that Kamala Harris has in this hypothesis is that she has been tested – thoroughly,” said Elaine Kamarck, a member of the Democratic National Committee and a fellow at the Brookings Institution. “We probably know everything there is to know about him. That can’t be said for anyone else. And he’s been in the White House for four years. He has a lot of name recognition.
If Mr. Biden does not name a preferred replacement, if he leaves the race, the process will become a struggle for the loyalty of delegates, which will reveal an ideological and generational struggle that has been going on for years. Fighting over the war in Gaza, immigration or policing, has been expected to play out in the convention, now it can be far more important, helping to determine the new candidate.
One thing Democrats should never take for granted is that “Democrats can agree on something,” said Ms. Cutter.
But that is far from a unanimous opinion. Ms. Kamarck said that Democrats’ hostility towards Mr. Trump will bring them together.
“Antipathy to Donald Trump’s second term from four years ago has not changed,” he said.
And some Democrats say there are ways to mitigate the lasting damage. Jeff Weaver, a strategist for Sen. Bernie Sanders’ two presidential campaigns, said the party needs to quickly complete the election process, including party-sanctioned debates.
“If that happens, it will consume all the political oxygen in the room leading up to the Democratic convention,” he said. “And at the convention, people will know who the candidate is.”
New nominees may face other complicating factors. Ohio Election Law requires parties to nominate their candidates by August 7, nearly two weeks before the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. The party had planned to officially nominate Mr. Biden earlier, through a virtual online roll call vote. Barring changes in the law, which can still happen, the party will be hard pressed to settle on a new ticket by the August deadline – or give up on the ballot in Ohio.
In other states, Republicans have considered using lawsuits to block Democrats from changing their nominees’ names on the ballot.
Richard Winger, an expert on voting rules who is the publisher of Ballot Access News, said he doesn’t think the court could interfere with ballots in those states.
A Scramble for Cash
The new Democratic candidate will inherit the infrastructure of the Biden campaign, the infrastructure of the party and the organization that has been set up in the swing states, party strategists said.
But that will get people only so far without enough cash flow. New candidates must raise hundreds of millions of dollars to make a serious campaign and introduce themselves to America in an abbreviated campaign.
“Do they have $1 billion to do it, and do they have time to spend $1 billion to tell this story?” said Cornell Belcher, a Democratic pollster who supports that switching candidates would be a bad idea for the party.
The answer partly depends on whether this candidate Ms. Harris.
Saurav Ghosh, director of campaign finance reform at the Campaign Legal Center, said that as Ms. Harris will be able to take over Mr. Biden’s campaign account if he is the nominee, but others will not.
If the new candidate is not Ms. Harris, Mr. Biden’s war chest can return to the Democratic National Committee, which can only spend $ 32 million to coordinate with the campaign.
Some top Democratic strategists say they are not concerned about the challenge. The new candidate’s coffers are sure to be flooded with online donations from rank-and-file supporters. Even better, donors who have given the maximum amount to Mr. Biden — and therefore cannot give more to Ms. Harris – will have a clean slate to give maximum donations all over again for different nominations, the wind potential is huge.
In addition, the Democrats’ well-funded super PACs — which can raise and spend unlimited amounts, but may not legally coordinate with campaigns as they do — will almost certainly be quick to raise new candidates.
Still, Mr. Biden’s supporters, who oppose the idea of change, say running a new campaign is not as easy as it seems.
“You can’t just snap and assume it’s going to happen,” said Governor Phil Murphy of New Jersey, who insisted Mr. Biden would be the nominee in the fall.
Michael S. Schmidt contribute reports.