The far-right Alternative for Germany party is poised for a banner year.
Not long ago, the party, known as AfD, polled almost 25 percent nationally. With the elections for the European Parliament and in the three eastern countries – its traditional stronghold – the party seems poised to achieve its main goal of moving from the fringes to the mainstream.
Suddenly, the party’s future looked bleaker. It is still riding relatively high – the second most popular third in the country. But recently, as members have been caught up in spying and influence peddling scandals, secret discussions about deporting immigrants and controversy over extreme statements, the AfD has faced a stiffening backlash, threatening inroads have been made into the mainstream.
Continual mistakes and scandals have forced the party, which has been officially branded a “suspected” extremist group by German authorities, to remove some key members and prompted far-right parties abroad to shun it.
“This week behind us was not a good week,” said Alice Weidel, one of the party’s leaders, at a campaign stop on May 25.
The AfD is feeling the consequences. Local elections in the eastern state of Thuringia last weekend did not produce the desired mandate, although they still finished strongly.
Now, about a week before the European Parliament elections start, the party’s prospects look a little shaky. But it still managed to win more seats in the European Parliament and national elections than before, according to opinion polls.
“Some people who have switched to the AfD have second thoughts,” said Manfred Güllner, head of the Forsa Institute, a political polling agency. “But the core of the radical right will never go away.”
Perhaps in a sign that AfD’s camel can only carry so many straws, last week the party criticized itself, pushing its two top candidates for the European Parliament elections off the campaign trail, but not removing them from contention.
One of them, Maximilian Krah, gave a recent interview with The Financial Times and the Italian daily La Repubblica, in which he expressed his belief that not all members of the SS, the Nazi paramilitary force, were necessarily criminals. The other, Petr Bystron, is under investigation for receiving money from Russia.
Mr. Krah declined to comment for this article. Mr. Bystron did not respond to requests for comment.
Even in a party known for its roguish members who refuse to stand in line, the new month has many.
Before his comments, Mr Krah had been in the headlines for weeks after his aides were arrested on suspicion of spying for China, and his own office was searched, a sobering revaluation for a party that presents itself as anti-corruption and hyper-nationalist.
In May, the leader of the AfD in the state of Thuringia, Björn Höcke, was fined 13,000 euros, about $14,000, for using banned Nazi slogans in a 2021 speech.
But perhaps the most consequential airing of the party’s laundry came in January, after it was revealed that AfD members had joined a meeting where mass deportation of immigrants – including naturalized citizens – was discussed.
The news sparked months of mass protests against the AfD across the country. Current opinion polls show that support for the national party has fallen, from 14 to 17 percent, according to some estimates, from a peak of around 23 percent last December.
In the hope of recapturing momentum, the party faces something of a strategic tightrope, said Benjamin Höhne, professor at Chemnitz University of Technology.
It must appease the extremist core while expanding its appeal among center-right voters if it is to extend its reach beyond regional strongholds and become a real power.
“This is a normalization strategy,” Mr. Höhne said. “To try to make an appeal to the center of society, but don’t go and leave the stigmatized right wing in the corner.”
The path has narrowed as former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party, the Christian Democratic Union, or CDU, has moved further to the right, potentially undermining AfD voters.
In addition, a new party – Sahra Wagenknecht’s movement, which combines populism and leftist politics – may pose a threat.
It’s a predicament some AfD members bristle at. “The CDU is now offering itself as a solution to the problems it created,” said Stephan Brandner, a senior federal AfD lawmaker.
The most vulnerable part of the AfD’s support may be the first-time voters to the party – drawn by dissatisfaction with the government, or perhaps making a protest vote – who are now being turned off by the drumming scandal.
“This part of the electorate is now the leader of the AfD,” said Johannes Hillje, a German political scientist who studies the AfD. “They should be able to mobilize more than the right-wing environment.”
In Bavaria, where the party has entered, Andreas Jurca, an AfD member of the State House, said he was witnessing a withdrawal. In recent months, he said, about 10 percent of new applicants to the party in his area have withdrawn their applications.
“Last year we were able to enter the middle class,” he said. “Now, the problem is not our position; it’s that we’ve been made pariahs.”
Last weekend’s election in Thuringia offered a mixed picture of the AfD’s future. The party did less well than expected for key seats, such as mayor and district leader, getting 26 percent of the vote, second only to the CDU’s 27 percent.
But it nabbed a majority of seats in some municipal councils, a shift that could have a trickle-up effect in the federal election, said Matthias Quent, a professor at the Magdeburg-Stendal University of Applied Sciences who studies the right.
“This is a new dimension and it will change local politics,” Professor Quent said. Having AfD members running every day in Thuringia could increase the party’s legitimacy, with consequences for future elections. “The idea is to normalize from below.”
Tatiana Firsova contributed reporting.