Russia will not launch a new coordinated offensive along hundreds of miles of frontline in eastern Ukraine this summer, according to Kyiv authorities and Western analysis, as Moscow says it has seized control of another village in the Donetsk region.
“Repeat a broad attack on the entire front line, as in February 2022, now there is no question,” Andriy Yusov, a spokesman for Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence agency, said. Newsweek.
When Moscow launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin quickly expanded its reach from parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions under separatist control to swathes of northern and eastern Ukraine.
Moscow has also held Crimea, a peninsula south of mainland Ukraine, since 2014.
Ukraine recaptured territory, including in the northeastern Kharkiv region, with a lightning counteroffensive in the fall of 2022.
But Russia has been slowly, but steadily, gaining territory in eastern Ukraine, claiming the Donetsk city of Avdiivka in February 2024 and moving west in the months since.
Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images
Moscow’s forces are closing in on the strategic defense city of Pokrovsk, and Ukraine is constantly reporting the fiercest clashes in this part of the front line.
On Sunday, Russia’s Defense Ministry said its forces had captured Novoselevka Persha, a settlement west of Avdiivka and southeast of Pokrovsk. Newsweek cannot independently verify this.
In early May, Russia launched a cross-border offensive into the Kharkiv region. Ukraine quickly said the opening of the new front was designed to draw vital resources away from hot spots in the east.
However, in late July, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based think tank, said that Russian forces were “unlikely to conduct a distinct new summer offensive operation due to material and manpower constraints.”
Moscow has moved forward with a “local” effort in western Ukraine’s Donetsk region at the end of the month, but “is likely to lack the operational capacity to carry out a new separate offensive operation in Donetsk Oblast or elsewhere this summer.” ISW assessment .
This assessment is broadly correct, agreed Nick Reynolds, research fellow in land warfare at the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank.
But the situation is “fragile for both sides” and “unpredictable,” he said Newsweek.
Analysts and officials say Moscow is waging a war of attrition, hoping to wear down opposition fighters and spare Kyiv equipment before the Kremlin loses its own resources.
While Western intelligence shows Russia has received supplies from allies like Iran, China and North Korea, Moscow is also rushing to put its defense industry on a war footing and support mothballed Soviet equipment.
Russia’s gains have been bolstered by high casualties among its personnel, and in recent months Ukraine has regularly reported that more than 1,000 Moscow fighters are being injured or killed each day.
Estimates from Kyiv show Russia could attract around 30,000 new recruits to the military every month.
Ukraine receives significant aid from Western backers, including military vehicles. But despite the public declaration of an ironclad commitment to Kyiv from NATO, there are significant questions about the future of military aid shipments if former President Donald Trump wins the US election later this year.
However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed on Sunday that the F-16 fighter jets, donated by at least one of Kyiv’s backer countries, were operational after days of reports indicating the aircraft had arrived. Kyiv hopes to use advanced aircraft to deter Russian efforts and improve its air defenses.
A large-scale attack from Russia is likely next year, Reynolds suggested, although Moscow could try smaller-scale operations earlier.
Offensive blows usually come in spring or summer, avoiding the mud season immediately after winter or at the end of autumn. Tanks and armored vehicles get stuck in roadless areas, forcing their operators to stay on well-paved roads.
